Democratic primary to replace Alcee Hastings is too close to call

Florida’s bluest congressional seat will be decided by a few dozen votes.

The Democratic primary to replace longtime U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings was too close to call on Tuesday evening, with Broward County Commissioner Dale V.C. Holness and healthcare executive Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick headed to a potential recount.

As of 11:50 p.m., Holness led Cherfilus-McCormick by nine votes out of slightly more than 49,000 cast. The total margin of victory was well inside the .5% threshold to trigger a machine recount. If the machine recount leads to a margin of victory of less than .25%, a hand recount of overvotes and undervotes could be ordered.

Holness’ strength during the campaign came from an established get-out-the-vote operation in Broward County, where he built a large lead. But Cherfilus-McCormick spent more than $3 million of her own money on the race, and the cash helped her win Palm Beach County and perform better in Broward than Holness did in Palm Beach.

“We’re still excited about the numbers that we’re seeing but obviously this is a close race and we’re just going to wait and see what happens tomorrow morning and continue our push then,” said Cherfilus-McCormick spokesperson Rochelle Ritchie.

Holness did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The race was characterized by extremely low turnout, which is common in special congressional elections. Just over 49,000 voters cast ballots in Florida’s 20th Congressional District, which has more than 800,000 residents.

“The voter turnout for this race was dismal,” said Florida state Sen. Shevrin Jones, a Democrat who represents parts of the congressional district. “The Florida Democratic Party is going to have to figure out what they need to do to reengage voters.”

Former state Sen. Chris Smith, a Democrat from Broward County who supported state Sen. Perry Thurston in the primary, said he was “shocked” at the result.

“I’m just shocked that McCormick did so well with so many well-known names out there,” Smith said. “She spent a lot of money and got her name out there quickly.”

Smith said he was less surprised that Holness rose to the top of the field, because “he has a constituency that was going to come out for him,” notably Broward’s Caribbean community.

Smith said none of the candidates other than Cherfilus-McCormick spent much money on ads, instead focusing on turnout efforts within a concentrated base of voters who supported them in the past.

But Cherfilus-McCormick performed well in Palm Beach County, where the only sitting elected official in the race, first-term state Rep. Omari Hardy, did not have the entrenched voter base of the Broward elected officials in the race, which included Holness, Thurston, Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief and state Rep. Bobby DuBose.

“In Broward, that’s where all the well-known names were,” Smith said. “I don’t think Hardy, being a one-term state Rep., was entrenched in the community.”

Cherfilus-McCormick, a healthcare executive from Hollywood who ran against Hastings in the last two elections and who was campaigning for a rematch before his death in April, poured millions into the race and campaigned on establishing a universal basic income, Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. But most of her ads were focused on raising awareness of her candidacy in a crowded field instead of focusing on policy, where the differences between most of the candidates were small.

The large field of candidates in such a heavily Democratic district struggled to attract donors throughout the campaign, with six of the nine candidates who posted fundraising totals spending their own money on the race. Contributions under $200, often a sign of grassroots or online support, were minimal.

National Democrats, and even most high-profile local politicians, largely avoided the race. While two other special congressional elections this year in Ohio and Louisiana turned into fights between the Democratic Party’s left and centrist wings, most outside groups declined to endorse a candidate and spend money on the race.

One sign of the race’s lack of interest was the involvement of EMILY’s List, a group that tries to elect Democratic women. EMILY’s List, whose name is an acronym for “Early Money Is Like Yeast” endorsed Sharief and donated to her campaign — four days before Election Day. Less than $500,000 was spent by outside groups not affiliated with the candidates’ campaigns, according to federal campaign finance reports.

Sharief will finish the race in third place among the 11 candidates. Thurston was the only other candidate to get at least 10% support.

The winner between Cherfilus-McCormick and Holness will face nominal opposition in a Jan. 11 general election.

Jason Mariner defeated Greg Musselwhite in the GOP primary with support from Treasure Coast U.S. Rep. Brian Mast, though Mariner will face uphill odds in the general election. No-party candidates Jim Flynn and Leonard Serratore and Libertarian Party candidate Mike ter Maat will also compete in the general election.

But given the close result in the Democratic primary, both Smith and Jones said it’s possible that the loser could begin campaigning immediately for a rematch next year. The Democratic primary will be held in August, nine months away.

“Just on personalities I think Sheila could get supporters from the other camps way more than Holness,” Smith said. “If Holness wins and she runs again, she has more opportunity to pick up the non-Holness voters.”

Jones said he hopes for the sake of the Democratic Party that the ultimate winner of this year’s primary does not get challenged next year.

“I would not be surprised but I really hope that does not happen,” Jones said. “It is truly time to turn our attention to 2022. Whoever wins, I hope we can get behind that candidate and that he or she can win after redistricting. All we’re doing is draining our resources on egos.”

This story was originally published November 2, 2021 at 10:30 PM.