A billionaire tax is on the ballot in California. How could that affect Miami?
A proposed billionaire tax in California has piqued the interest of real estate brokers and developers across South Florida.
Some believe the one-time wealth tax would send California’s richest residents running to low-tax states like Florida, bolstering the luxury real estate market in Miami.
And those who are rooting for the tax to pass are now closer to getting their wish: The billionaire tax referendum was certified for the ballot on Thursday. California voters will decide in November whether to levy a retroactive net worth tax of 5% on any billionaire that was living in the state on Jan. 1, 2026.
For Google co-founder Larry Page, the second-richest man in the world behind Elon Musk, the tax bill based on his current estimated net worth would come out to around $12.85 billion. Page recently dropped around $180 million on Coconut Grove real estate.
Ed Jahn, senior vice president of the luxury development firm Kolter Urban, said he expects to see more Californians moving to Florida if the measure passes. “I hope I’m right,” he added. Kolter Urban has developments across South Florida, including in West Palm Beach and Naples.
“It’s not going to be negative for the Miami real estate market” if the tax is implemented, said Nathan Zeder of The Jills Zeder Group, one of the leading luxury real estate brokerages in Miami and Miami Beach.
“I think the fact that it’s on the ballot is going to make people who live in California, who it may impact, stop and think, ‘What are my alternatives?’” said Andrew Kraynak, the head of sales and marketing for the luxury Miami-based development firm Ytech.
Jahn, Zeder and Kraynak all say they’ve seen an uptick in the number of Californians looking to buy South Florida real estate since the proposal was first put forth late last year. Some buyers explicitly tell them they were motivated by the potential tax.
A union representing healthcare workers is behind the billionaire tax proposal. The union says the tax would generate revenue to fund the state’s healthcare system, which has faced major cuts from President Donald Trump’s administration.
But the idea has irritated California’s billionaire class, and some have left the state in protest or threatened to do so. California has more billionaires than any other state, with different estimates placing the number between 200 and 250.
California Rep. Ro Khanna called the argument that the tax would drive billionaires out of the state “hogwash.” Khanna, who represents a district that encompasses much of Silicon Valley, is one of the leading progressive voices in the Democratic Party and has partnered with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders to propose a national billionaire tax.
Some California billionaires, like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, have taken the proposal in stride. Huang has said the proposed tax doesn’t bother him, and he’d be willing to pay it to keep living in California.
Cristobal Young, a professor at Cornell University who researches tax policy and wealth migration, said older, wealthier people who are already established in their careers are typically the least likely demographic to move.
In the past, he said billionaires often threatened to move over taxes but rarely did so because their networks kept them rooted in place. But since the pandemic, that may be starting to change, he said.
Some California billionaires seem to be eyeing options in other states, including Florida. Several of Silicon Valley’s wealthiest — Page, Sergey Brin and Mark Zuckerberg — have made headlines in recent months by buying real estate in South Florida.
Although these high-profile real estate buys generated buzz about tech moguls choosing Florida over California, a billionaire buying a home doesn’t necessarily mean he lives there. Most have expansive real estate portfolios with properties around the world, and it can be difficult to pin down which one is a primary residence. But to reap the benefits of Florida’s low taxes, someone typically has to spend more than half the year in the state.
Google co-founder Page bought several waterfront lots in Coconut Grove late last year and early this year. Billionaire hedge fund CEO Ken Griffin said at a conference in May that he and Page send their kids to the same Miami school, which seems to suggest that Page’s Coconut Grove estate is his primary residence.
But that may not be the case for some others, like Google’s other co-founder Brin, who bought a $50 million home on Allison Island in Miami Beach. The New York Times has reported he’s spending most of his time on the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe.
Mark Zuckerberg bought an under-construction Indian Creek Village mansion earlier this year. The Meta CEO broke Miami-Dade’s record for most expensive home sale with the purchase of the waterfront mansion for $170 million.
If that home does become Zuckerberg’s primary residence, it’s still unclear how it would help him avoid paying the retroactive billionaire tax, because he bought it after Jan. 1, 2026.
If it passes, the tax would apply to any billionaire who was living in California at the start of this year. The same goes for billionaires who say they’ll leave the state if the measure passes in November.
This story was originally published June 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM.
