Gateway City/Trend: Fastest-growing trade partners rich with surprises

I have good news and bad news. This week, I will share the good news. You’ll have to wait a week for the bad news.

In a tough run for South Florida’s trade with the world, there are some bright spots. Not easy to find, but they’re there. Not countries you might expect, either. Countries like Australia, Vietnam, Argentina, Nicaragua, Thailand and Curacao.

Here’s what I wanted: Which trade partners were showing the fastest year-over-year growth in trade with South Florida?

So, here’s what I did: I looked at the top 50 South Florida trade partners using the latest U.S. Census Bureau data, which is through November. Then I ranked them by the largest percentage increase from the same 11 months of the previous year.

I stopped at 50 because those 50 nations account for just under 96 percent of all South Florida trade with the world.

A quick step back: South Florida traded with 228 nations through November. To give you a sense of how tough a year 2015 was, trade with 125 of those nations was down. This is the first year since 2010 that South Florida trade with the world had not topped $100 billion by November.

A few points on the top 16 shown in the chart, before I take a quick look at some of them:

▪ Ten were on track for a record year.

▪ Two are in South Florida’s top 10, No. 7 Peru, up from No. 9; and No. 8 Argentina, up from No. 11.

▪ Three are in Asia: No. 28 Vietnam, up four in rank; No. 36 Taiwan, up one; and No. 44 Thailand, up three. A fourth is a neighbor, No. 46 Australia, up six positions.

▪ Six accounted for more than $2 billion in trade through the first 11 months with another three accounting for at least $1 billion.

▪ Vietnam fell just shy at $958.43 billion and will almost certainly have surpassed $1 billion for the first time when annual data is released Feb. 5.

From fastest-growing to least:

No. 13 Switzerland: The fastest-growing, up 53.43 percent, from $1.58 billion to $2.42 billion, is this European nation known for its discretion in the financial sector. The primary trade is South Florida exports of gold, which has been well chronicled in this column. But the 2015 increase is misleading. South Florida trade with Switzerland is down 70.92 percent from its peak just three years ago.

No. 31 Spain: Spain’s trade with South Florida was up 30.40 percent in 2015 from the previous year, the second-largest percentage increase among South Florida’s top 50. It is the highest total for Spain-South Florida trade since 2004, the last year two-way trade topped $1 billion. The 2015 gains are well balanced, with an $83.03 million, 33.77 percent increase in South Florida exports and a $117.71 million, 28.41 percent increase in imports.

No. 44 Thailand: Trade with Thailand had topped $300 million seven of the previous eight years — until 2014. So, 2015 was a rebound year, with trade up 28.32 percent to its highest total since 2011. In dollar terms, the 2015 gains through November were balanced between exports ($32.52 million) and imports ($40.60 million) but in percentage terms, exports ballooned (176.37 percent) while imports grew modestly (16.93 percent). Almost all of the increase on the export side was in the category that includes aircraft, engines and parts.

No. 40 Curacao: Like Switzerland, Curacao is on the rebound, up 27.68 percent from the same 11 months of 2014 but down 35.65 percent from 2011.

No. 18 Germany: No rebound here: Trade between South Florida and Germany was in record territory in 2015, up 24.80 percent to $1.97 billion. Most of the growth is in South Florida imports of motorboats.

No. 36 Taiwan: As with Germany, Taiwan’s trade with South Florida was in record territory at the end of 2015. Trade through the first 11 months of 2015 was up 21.63 percent. This one is all on the import side; in fact, exports to Taiwan fell through November. Motor boat imports increased more than any other import.

No. 8 Argentina: South Florida’s trade with Argentina will have topped $3 billion for only the second time and the second time in three years when annual 2015 data is released. The 17.81 percent increase in 2015 put Argentina’s South Florida trade above $2 billion for the seventh time in the last eight years through November. The $452.73 million increase year-over-year — $375.26 million in South Florida exports — was second in size to only Switzerland’s $841.92 million.

No. 46 Australia: With 17.25 percent growth in South Florida trade, Australia advanced six positions in rank in 2015, more than any country other than Switzerland, which advanced 10. Most of the gain was in an import category called returned exports, with most of the value in the maritime space.

No. 16 Italy: Here’s another one in record territory, topping $2 billion in November for the first time on a 15.56 percent growth rate. A great deal of the growth is in yachts.

No. 20 Nicaragua: The Central American nation’s trade with South Florida was also in record territory through November, with relative balance in export and import growth.

No. 22 Trinidad and Tobago: Exports to the Caribbean nation were the primary driver of the growth through November, and it is also trading with South Florida at a record pace.

No. 28 Vietnam: Only 4 cents of every dollar of Vietnam trade is a South Florida export. South Florida’s average with the world is 55 cents. And the growth in 2015 was dominated by South Florida imports, led by a three-year surge in cellphones.

No. 7 Peru: The largest South Florida trade partner on the list, it is clawing back to the 2013 record year.

No. 15 El Salvador: Like its neighbor, Nicaragua, it was in record territory in 2015, up 9.64 percent through November.

No. 34 Jamaica: The 8.37 percent gain through November was progress, for Jamaica-South Florida trade, to be sure, but it remains well below the record year, when trade was nearly double — 1994.

No. 11 France: South Florida-France trade was in record territory in 2015, up 7.94 percent, with a great deal of the increase in imports of jewelry, specifically rings made of platinum.

This story was originally published January 23, 2016 at 2:00 PM with the headline "Gateway City/Trend: Fastest-growing trade partners rich with surprises."