Citrus industry suddenly facing its lowest orange yield in decades

This was supposed to be the year Florida’s citrus industry rebounded. After a decade of fighting a losing battle against a tree-killing disease and declining yields, growers thought this year’s abundant crop promised a turnaround. Then, just weeks before harvest, Hurricane Irma hit.

“This was a real punch in the face,” said Andrew Meadows, spokesperson for citrus trade organization Florida Citrus Mutual.

Overcome by almost $800 million in losses from the hurricane, the state’s citrus industry is suddenly facing its lowest orange yield in 75 years, far worse than forecasts expected just a couple of months ago.

Nearly 60 percent of all citrus in the country comes from the Sunshine State, bringing in $1 billion in sales each year, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

Although damage is still being assessed, the latest numbers released by the state put expected losses at roughly $761 million. Early estimates suggest that this year’s crop will be the single lowest yield since 1942.

Florida Citrus Mutual conducted a survey of growers around the state, accounting for about two-thirds of the state’s citrus acreage. Based on responses, the group estimates that the industry’s orange levels are currently at 31 million 90-pound boxes, the unit of measure for citrus crop yield.

Before the storm, forecasts were counting on a yield more than twice that size: between 68.7 million and 75 million.

“This would have represented the first production increase in five years,” said Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus, in an email. “Sadly, that’s no longer the case.”

Just how devastated the orange crop is longer term won’t be fully known until the season bears out next year. But the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its crop estimates Thursday. According to those figures, orange growers in Florida are expected to harvest 54 million boxes during the 2017-18 season, the fewest since 1947. But Florida officials belive those figures vastly underestimate the damage.

Florida Citrus Mutual had estimated that 50 to

60 percent of Florida’s orange crops have been wiped out.

Michael Sparks, the vice president and CEO of Lakeland-based Florida Citrus Mutual, said Thursday that he was “disappointed the USDA did not delay the traditional October crop estimate until more data could be collected to fully assess the damage wrought by Irma.”

“Irma hit us just a month ago and although we respect the skill and professionalism of the USDA, there is no way they can put out a reliable number in that short time period,” Sparks said.

Much of the damage from Irma was concentrated in a cluster of counties, according to the state agriculture department. Collier and Hendry counties were most severely affected, with 94,144 acres hit by hurricane-force winds.

Next were Lee, Brevard, Glades, Charlotte, St. Lucie, Highlands, Indian River, Okeechobee, DeSoto, Hardee and Osceola counties, in which 254,956 acres experienced gusts of the same strength. About 72,076 acres in Polk and Martin counties were affected by tropical storm-force winds.

While Hurricane Irma delivered the most recent blow to the industry, a bacterial disease is what teed Florida citrus up for devastation.

For more than a decade, citrus growers have battled a disease known as greening, which attacks and eventually kills trees.

“Production has been pretty severely affected by it,” said Ariel Singerman, assistant professor of agricultural economics at the University of Florida.

According to Singerman, production plummeted 70 percent since about 2003, just before the first instance of greening in Florida was discovered in 2005. At that time, Florida orange yield was forecasted at 242 million boxes for the 2003-2004 season.

Four hurricanes during 2004 and 2005 further knocked down production numbers.

Smaller growers, Singerman said, had a tougher time weathering the problems the disease brought. They, too, will likely have the most difficulty coping with damage brought by Hurricane Irma.

The only bright light for growers is that they will likely benefit from slightly higher prices on oranges if their fruit survived.

This story was originally published October 15, 2017 at 10:00 AM with the headline "Citrus industry suddenly facing its lowest orange yield in decades."