Florida Democrats regroup, Republicans dig in after redistricting

Less than a month ago, national and state Democrats said they felt cautiously optimistic they could flip four Republican congressional seats and make respectable bids for governor and U.S. Senate.

Then Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped a radical redrawing of congressional districts that left Democrats scrambling.

Rather than pick up congressional seats, Democrats now face the prospect of losing half the seats they have in Florida, a setback with national implications in the battle to control the U.S. House.

With no likely legal remedy, the new maphas forced Democrats to reassess their game plan and play some more defense, said C.J. Warnke, the communications director for the House Majority PAC, which funds Democratic congressional campaigns.

"We'll continue to see how the battlefield environment develops," Warnke said. "But we knew we'd have to go deep into Trump territory if we wanted a Democratic majority."

Their strategy will emphasize wooing independent voters by stressing pocketbook issues and downplaying President Donald Trump, Warnke and other Democratic consultants said. They'll tap national money to compete in more congressional races, which they say will help other races up and down the ballot. They'll venture into rural areas, which had previously been ignored by the party.

They hope to force Republicans to spend money that could have been spent elsewhere to compete for Florida's congressional districts, Warnke said. There are about two dozen competitive House districts in the U.S. - a third of what was competitive in 2018.

Florida and national Democrats said they believe they are well-positioned to succeed because the political climate strongly favors them and their message.

"Every single poll, public and private, shows voters are concerned about their wallet," Warnke said. "Republicans are underestimating how much people are angry about the economy."

Republicans concede that they'll spend more money in Florida on districts that before hadn't been competitive. Butthey say that's hardly a bad thing if they can flip the Florida seats they need to hold on to the House. They now have a 218-214 edge overall and a 20-7 edge in Florida, with one Democratic vacancy.

Typically, the party that occupies the White House loses seats in a midterm election. But thanks to redistricting - a strategy hatched by Trump and deputy White House chief of staff James Blair - the GOP expects to pick up four seats in Florida, said Evan Power, the state Republican Party chairperson.

"When you have the structure, money and the right message, you can defy history," he said.

‘Most money ever'

Whatever the consequences of the redistricting, italmost certainly means more party money will flow to congressional candidates in Florida, especially the ones considered essential for winning a majority.

The Democrats' House Majority PAC announced in April that it's spending about $20 million in Florida for TV and digital advertising to help candidates. About $6.6 million of that will be spent in Tampa. The Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, hasn't announced any media buys yet in Florida, but it should be substantial.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm for U.S. House Democrats,has identified two redrawn Florida districts, one in Tampa and the other in Orlando, as particularly critical.

That means the Democratic incumbents in those districts, Kathy Castor and Darren Soto, will get money from the national party. Two other incumbents, Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz in South Florida, may get help later. The four other Florida Democratic seats are considered safe.

For about 20 years, Castor has represented a district that covered most of Tampa and St. Petersburg and was overwhelmingly Democratic. Now it includes South Tampa and parts of the more conservative eastern Hillsborough County, along with Brandon and Plant City. The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia rates the new district as "leans Republican," meaning Republicans hold a small edge in a competitive election.

Two viable Republican contenders, state Rep. Kevin Steele of Pasco County and former state Rep. Michael Beltran, who represented parts of Hillsborough and Manatee counties, have filed to challenge Castor. Steele is loaning his campaign $2.5 million. The qualifying deadline is June 12.

Power suggested that Trump might offer endorsements in Florida's congressional races, whichhave proven effective in clearing the primary field across the country, including in Kentucky, Louisiana and Indiana.

GOP consultant Anthony Pedicini, who represented Steele in the Florida House, said Republicans will easily outspend Democrats in Tampa and elsewhere in the state.

"You're going to see the most money ever spent in a Tampa Bay congressional seat," he said, referring to Castor's new district.

Pedicini admitted that Castor would be "a tough candidate for Republicans to defeat." But he noted that the longtime member of Congress hasn't had a competitive race in two decades.

"She doesn't have unlimited name recognition because of that," Pedicini said. "And her voting record puts her at odds with many of the communities that are now in her district."

Florida Democratic Party chairperson Nikki Fried said she thinks Castor and other Democratic incumbents will ultimately prevail.

"Do they have more of a challenge?" Fried said. "Sure, but they'll do it. Plus Republicans have watered down their own seats, so they're vulnerable."

One possible irony for Democrats is that the battle over congressional redistricting may have improved their prospects in two other races they want to win: governor and the U.S. Senate seat. Former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody was appointed to the Senate by DeSantis last year after Marco Rubio left to become Trump's secretary of state.

All that extra money Democrats will spend on winning Congresswill help amplify their messaging in other races up and down the ballot, said Mark Riddle, senior adviser to former U.S Rep. David Jolly, the Democratic front-runner in the governor's race.

"The backdrop of 2026 is the economic crisis in Florida," Riddle said. "Florida is not immune to national trends."

Pedicini, however, said it's too early to count on the news cycle to help any candidate win.

"Using the crystal ball on the issues of the day is really bad strategy," he said.

He says he's placing his trust in thegerrymandering strategy set by Blair, whose political career was based in Florida before working for Trump.

"Us Florida boys have infinite faith in James Blair," he said.

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This story was originally published May 27, 2026 at 8:25 AM.