Eight States Where Home Insurance Costs Could Surge With Super El Niño

A developing super El Niño could do more than reshape weather patterns across the U.S. this year; it could also make home insurance more expensive. Forecasters warn the unusually strong climate pattern may fuel heavier rainfall, flooding, and more destructive storms in some regions, increasing the risk of costly damage that insurers ultimately pass on to homeowners.

El Niño occurs when unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters disrupt global weather systems, and in especially strong, or "super," events, those disruptions can intensify extremes such as flooding rains in California and the southern U.S., powerful Pacific hurricanes, and severe inland storms.

Insurance industry analysts say those hazards drive higher claims, push up reinsurance costs, and pressure insurers to raise premiums or tighten coverage. Home insurance rates have already been climbing nationwide as disasters grow more frequent and expensive, and a super El Niño could add another layer of risk, particularly in areas prone to flooding, storm surge, and water damage that standard homeowners’ policies often do not fully cover.

One of El Niño’s greatest impacts in the U.S. could involve flooding, as the climate pattern is associated with wetter and more extreme conditions in southern states as well as higher sea levels on the West Coast that could contribute to nuisance coastal flooding, Natalie Lord, a principal climate scientist for global flood risk intelligence provider Fathom, told Newsweek.

How Much Does Flood Insurance Cost?

Flood insurance is fundamentally different from standard homeowners insurance because most home insurance policies do not cover damage caused by flooding at all unless the claim is for a form of interior water damage, like a burst pipe or leaking appliance. Claims of damage from rising rivers, heavy rainfall, storm surge, or flash flooding are generally excluded. Flood insurance must be purchased separately, most commonly through the federally backed National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is administered by FEMA, although some private insurers also offer policies.

As for cost, flood insurance is often less expensive than many homeowners expect, though prices vary widely by risk and location. Recent analyses show the average NFIP flood insurance policy costs about $1,100 per year nationwide, or roughly $90 a month. Homes in lower‑risk areas may pay several hundred dollars annually, while properties in high‑risk flood zones can face premiums well above $2,000 a year. Private flood insurance can sometimes be cheaper or offer higher limits, but prices still depend heavily on a home's exposure to flooding.

Why Insurance Rates Might Change Because of El Niño

These premiums might rise when El Niño risk is taken into account, Lord said, specifically for those areas of the U.S. more likely to see flood damage. States most likely to see wetter, and at times, damaging, conditions include the U.S. Southwest and the U.S. Southeast. This includes Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, and Florida.

Flooding risk is more likely across the Southwest during the summer months because of increased Pacific hurricane risk, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek, whereas flood risk in the Southeast would be higher in the late fall and winter.

What Homeowners Should Watch For and When

Home insurance rates could also be affected, as some hazards could occur simultaneously with flooding. For example, in the Southeast, flood risk rises during El Niño because more severe storms are pushed into the region. These storms bring other hazards in addition to torrential rain, such as hail and tornadoes, which would be covered under home insurance, Lord said.

It’s tough for homeowners to know when to opt for flood insurance if they don’t already have it solely because of El Niño’s possible impacts, Lord said. Each El Niño is different, with some causing record tidal flooding in the West and others contributing to increased storms and torrential rain in the Southeast.

“It’s hard to tell exactly where the highest risk is going to be until it actually happens,” Lord told Newsweek. “But I think that probably does mean whilst insurance premiums in general have been increasing, the markets in those states are likely to see greater than the country average increases in premiums to try to counteract some of those losses [from El Niño.] The issue will be not all of those states are likely to see extreme losses.”

Homeowners must balance the risk of El Niño impacts against the rising cost of insurance and choose the option best for them, Lord said.

As insurers factor in heavier rainfall and flooding tied to weather patterns from El Niño, experts say premiums could climb even for households that never file a claim.

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This story was originally published May 6, 2026 at 1:48 PM.