With another thrilling win, the Dolphins close in on an unlikely NFL record

Eleven times since Sept. 25 of last year, the Dolphins have been involved in games decided by seven points or fewer.

And 11 times, they have won.

It’s an incredible streak of clutch play that not only shattered the previous franchise record, but closes in on the NFL mark.

Peyton Manning’s Colts won a ridiculous 14 straight games decided by a touchdown or less (2008-09), according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

In each of those years, Indianapolis reached the playoffs.

The Dolphins’ eight one-score wins fueled their run to the Wild Card round of the playoffs last year, and are the only reason they are the AFC’s sixth seed heading into Week 7 this year.

Advanced statisticians scoff at the idea that winning close games is a skill, but instead argue that, given a long enough timeline, they tend to even out.

But if winning a one-score game is simply a coin flip, then the Dolphins are the luckiest team in the last decade. The odds of a coin landing on heads 11 straight times is 2,048-to-1.

An easier explanation is this: The Dolphins are a team that keeps its head when games get close.

“I don’t know if it’s a skill,” Dolphins coach Adam Gase said. “I think it’s a great mindset that our players have of when the game gets tight, they’re going to play better, or at least they’re going make the plays that are necessary.”

Gase, who would have a 2-19 record as coach if all of those close wins were close losses, credited the healthy return of Reshad Jones, whose late interception sealed Miami’s win over Atlanta, and the play of the Dolphins’ veteran linebackers as a big difference from a year ago.

Another way the Dolphins have defied the odds: They have gone 13-8 in the regular season under Gase despite being outscored 424-464. Sabermetrician Bill James devised a formula that determines what a team’s record should be based on point differential.

When you plug the Dolphins’ numbers into the formula, it spits out an expected record of 9-12.

Gase Monday was dismissive of this line of thinking.

“I just look at the record, man,” Gase said. “I’m still waiting for [sports reporters’] comments section next to win-loss and tell me each game, what should have happened, what would have happened.”

This story was originally published October 16, 2017 at 4:15 PM with the headline "With another thrilling win, the Dolphins close in on an unlikely NFL record."