Gulf storm looking less likely to become a tropical system

A messy storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and dumping heavy rain on South Florida looked a little less likely to become a tropical system Monday afternoon.

In an update to a morning advisory, the National Hurricane Center said a low pressure system that might help the storm intensify had not yet showed any more signs of becoming better organized. Forecasters lowered the odds of a tropical system developing to 30 percent over the next five days and just 25 percent over 48 hours.

"What we’re talking about right now is a pretty disorganized system," said hurricane specialist Richard Pasch.

Hurricane models had earlier suggested that the low pressure area over the Gulf might spread and give the storm a boost as it rolls north. While there's still a chance the storm could swirl into a tropical system, so far the slow-moving storm is not becoming more defined.

"Obviously, we've been surprised in the past, so we're going to keep an eye on it," he said.

Over the weekend, the system pushed nasty weather across South Florida, generating heavy rain and tornado warnings in parts of Palm Beach, Hendry and Glades counties. Key West recorded more than twice the previous record for rain on a May 13 on Sunday, and the South Florida Water Management District recorded 3.25 inches in North Miami Beach. The heaviest rain on the mainland fell to the north, with Pompano getting more than two inches and Coral Springs recording 3.16 inches, according to district gauges.

In Miami Beach, heavy rain and high tide combined to make a messy morning rush hour.

Residents and business owners complained that parts of South Beach and Sunset Harbour flooded. On Española Way some drains clogged and water rose roughly a foot and a half on Sunday night, said Salvador Muñoz, a waiter at Oh! Mexico. To keep sidewalk tables above water, he said some were moved away from the curb.

Small drains prone to clog left the street flooded Sunday until midnight, he said.

Miami Beach officials said the city's pumps operated without any problems during the heavy rain, but they plan to check them anyway "in an abundance of caution," public works director Roy Coley said in an email.

Rain on Monday could continue to cause minor flooding throughout the day, mainly in the west and east coast, the Miami office of the National Weather Service warned. The risk of rip currents is also high along the coast. As the storm churns north, rain will likely continue in South Florida at least through Wednesday.

Hurricane forecasters have scheduled a hurricane hunter plane to investigate the system Tuesday if it looks like formation is more likely, Pasch said.

If the low forms as predicted by models, the system could meander offshore for a few days. Since most of the heavy weather is in the storm's southeast corner, that likely means more rain for South Florida, not unwelcome news for an area that has been struggling with drought conditions and wildfires. On Monday, the rain helped douse a massive fire in the Big Cypress National Preserve that had blazed across more than 82,000 acres, the National Park Service said in an email.

"Irma produced quite a bit of rain, but then we ended up very dry," Pasch said. "So we’re looking forward to much-needed rain."

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This story was originally published May 14, 2018 at 12:54 PM with the headline "Gulf storm looking less likely to become a tropical system."