Winter buying season loses clout with South Florida condo resellers

The winter buying season when visitors from cold climates in the Northern Hemisphere descend upon sunny South Florida to thaw out and shop for second homes may not carry the purchasing clout that some may have thought.

An analysis of data from the Southeast Florida MLXchange suggests the most active time statistically to resell an existing South Florida condo or townhouse located east of Interstate 95 in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties is actually in the spring and summer time of the year.

For at least the sixth year running, more than half of all condo and townhouse resales to occur near the coast in South Florida have transacted between the months of April and September, which constitute the second and third quarters of the year.

The preliminary data show that 2014 was no different with nearly 54 percent of all condo and townhouse resales transacting in the second and third quarters of last year. The final Realtor statistics for 2014 are scheduled to be released before the end of this month.

Prior to 2014, South Florida condo and townhouse transactions in the spring and summer of the year accounted for more than 54 percent of the activity in 2013, about 53 percent in years 2012 and 2011 and 52 percent in 2010 and 2009, according to the data.

On a county-by-county basis between 2009 and 2014, buyers in Miami-Dade County acquired between 51 percent and 55 percent of the total units to transact in any given year during the spring and summer.

In Broward, condo and townhouse resale deals in the second and third quarters represented between 51 percent and 54 percent of the units that traded during that six-year period.

For Palm Beach County, condo and townhouse resales in the spring and summer months represented from 53 percent to 55 percent of the transactions between 2009 and 2014, according to the data.

It is impossible to know for sure but the time at which South Florida condo and townhouse resales are trading suggests two types of buyers.

One group is most likely comprised of locals hoping to move during the long summer school break. The other is made up of international visitors from the Southern Hemisphere who are fleeing their winters by coming to South Florida.

This year’s buying activity in the spring and summer will be particularly noteworthy seeing how the U.S. dollar is strengthening against various foreign currencies, commodity prices — a mainstay of many South American economies — are falling, and the world economy is facing increased growth challenges. Added to this, the South Florida condo and townhouse market is in the midst of another condo boom with prices on the rise and supply growing.

In 2015, an estimated 6,400 new condo units — many of which have reportedly been sold to foreign buyers — are scheduled to be completed east of Interstate 95 in the tricounty South Florida region, according to the Miami Herald. An additional 11,700 new South Florida condo units are scheduled to be finished in 2016 and 2017.

Some industry watchers have raised concerns that the combination of factors could prompt some foreign buyers from the Southern Hemisphere — who bought up many of South Florida’s distressed and unsold new units during the last cycle — to pull back on their condo and townhouse acquisitions in South Florida.

The unanswered question going forward is whether the trend will continue in the years ahead when the spring and summer seasons are the most active time for condo and townhouse resales in South Florida.

This story was originally published January 18, 2015 at 2:00 PM with the headline "Winter buying season loses clout with South Florida condo resellers."