Kelly: How to evaluate the Miami Dolphins’ 2026 NFL schedule | Opinion
I have been doing this long enough to know that strength of schedule is about as useful as an insulated, hooded, North Face winter coat in South Florida.
But it’s a good thing I own one of those jackets because I’ll likely need it plenty during the Miami Dolphins’ 2026 season.
If we’re really honest about every NFL team at this point in the year we would admit we have no idea what each team will look like come kickoff in September due numerous factors, like player development, player regression, and injuries.
For instance, it’s highly likely that one starting quarterback will sustain a season-ending injury before the regular season arrives, and that could send (insert team here) into a circling the drain spiral.
Or, it’s possible that a team like Green Bay could lose its top defensive player, say Micah Parsons, to a serious injury the week or month before Miami plays them. After all, injuries are a part of the game, which is why NFL teams are required to produce a daily injury report, and end of the week game status report.
So predicting which NFL teams will be good, or bad based on how they performed last season, or who made the playoffs in 2026, is nonsense.
Think about it, who thought the Kansas City Chiefs wouldn’t make the playoff last year, coming off a Super Bowl run the previous year?
So strength of schedule isn’t how I would evaluate Miami’s NFL schedule.
These are the five factors I use when evaluating the upcoming schedule:
How do the Dolphins begin the season (home or away)?
Miami begins the 2026 season with road games against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sept. 13 and then follow up that West Coast trip on the road against the San Francisco 49ers on Sept. 20.
The first home game is against Kansas City on Sept 27 at 1 p.m.
Speaking of 1 p.m. kickoffs, how many of those do the Dolphins get in September and October, when the weather and Hard Rock Stadium’s shade configuration clearly favors the home team?
The schedule shows there are two -—Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals on Oct. 11 — in the seven NFL weeks that are in September and October. Even the one game that creeps into November — a Nov. 1 home game against the New England Patriots — kicks off at 4:25 p.m.
That’s not ideal, but has become the norm for the Dolphins the past few years.
Interestingly, the Dolphins got five 1 p.m. home games in November, December and January, which is usually when the heat and humidity index is manageable for the cold climate teams.
Go figure!
On the flip side, how many potential snow and cold-weather games could the Dolphins play on the road in the second half of the 2026 season?
A Nov. 22 road game against the Buffalo Bills is in the danger zone of snow, and so is the Dec. 6 road game against the Denver Broncos, the Dec. 20th road contest at Green Bay, and the Week 18 season finale against New England in the second weekend of January (date to be determined).
That’s four of nine road games that could feature the threat of snow.
Clearly someone doesn’t like Miami because the schedule couldn’t be worse when it came to the threat of snow games.
Next on my schedule evaluation is where does the bye week fall? Is it too early? Is it too late?
In my opinion, Miami’s Week 6 bye is too early since that’s the point in the season when teams are just hitting their stride. A player’s body typically doesn’t need a break after five games.
And finally, how many back-to-back road games are the Dolphins slated to play?
This season there’s only two of those challenging stretches, the season-opening stretch on the west coast against the Raiders and 49ers, and the Week 10 and Week 11 games at Indianapolis (Nov. 15) and Buffalo (Nov. 22).
That’s not great, but it’s not horrible.
So based on the five factors I use to evaluate the schedule — the start, the 1 p.m. South Florida kickoffs in the warm months, the potential snow games, where the bye week falls on the schedule, and the back-to-back road contests — the Dolphins seemingly have the deck stacked against them from a scheduling standpoint.
Buckle up because the 2026 Dolphins season might be a rough, and cold ride.
