Kelly: Time to set some standards for the 2025 Dolphins | Opinion
The Miami Dolphins’ mantra for the 2025 season is “they talk, we do,” and it has permeated to the entire team, which has seemingly gotten tired of defending, if not explaining themselves and past struggles to naysayers.
“We know what the standard is for our team,” quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said. ”We’ve got to go show that, and you don’t just talk about that.
“Enough with the talking.”
Well fine!
How about we create some realistic expectations for South Florida’s NFL franchise, which is flirting with yet another organizational reset if this team doesn’t deliver a winning season in 2025..
That means nine wins is the basement of what we should expect from the Dolphins, no matter what. And that’s getting off easy, considering 10 wins is likely what AFC teams will need to qualify for the postseason.
Everything with this team begins and ends with Tagovailoa, who needs to deliver his fourth straight 100-plus passer-rated season, entering a stratosphere only elite quarterbacks orbit in since his only peers would be Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young.
It would be ideal if Tagovailoa led the league in touchdown passes thrown, considering that’s the only important quarterback stat he hasn’t been a league leader in. But let us take baby steps as this offense gets back to being respectable.
Miami had the NFL’s top-ranked offense in 2023, but last season the Dolphins were middle class, ranked 18th in total yards (325.9) and 22nd in total points scored (20.3) per game.
The top 10 offenses in the NFL averaged 25 points of better last season, and that’s where Miami’s offensive resurrection needs to begin.
And the player who can get Miami back on top is Tyreek Hill.
Last season was the third year Hill didn’t produce 1,000 receiving yards, and we can blame it on a number of factors, like not having his quarterback for six and a half games, the wrist injury he played through all 2024 and pulling himself out the final regular-season game.
Hill can’t afford to repeat that type of lackluster season because he’s in a critical contract season seeing as how it’s unrealistic to expect Miami to honor the $36 million salary he’s under contract for in 2026.
The Dolphins might consider that salary, or a slight reduction if Hill produces 1,500-plus receiving yards in 2025. However, a more realistic goal for Hill would be 1,200, which averages out to 71 receiving yards per game.
Twenty-three receivers produced 1,000 yards or more from receptions, and the Lions’ duo of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams were the only pair to achieve the feat in 2024.
When we consider that Hill and Jaylen Waddle have each produced more than 1,000-yard seasons twice (in 2022 and 2023) it’s reasonable to conclude they can do it again if Tagovailoa plays at least 14 games in 2025, and both receivers stay relatively healthy.
If each receiver plays all 17 games, a 1,000-yard receiving season breaks down to 60 receiving yards per game, which is reasonable for Waddle as the second option.
That 60 yards-per-game total would also be a reasonable bar for De’Von Achane’s rushing total this season because his personal goal is to become a 1,000-yard rusher in 2025.
Last year 16 NFL tailbacks passed the 1,000-yard threshold, and 207 carries was the lowest workload any of those 16 had.
Based on Achane’s career average (5.6 per carry) to reach 60 yards per game he will need just 11 carries a game. His career average is 10.9 carries per game.
While the offense needs to regain its mojo, the Dolphins defense would benefit from replicating last year’s success.
The Dolphins have delivered a top-10 defense the past two seasons, despite having two different defensive coordinators. That’s the basement of what the expectations should be for this year’s unit, especially since it has a forceful foursome of edge rushers, and Zach Sieler, who has recorded 20 total sacks during the past two seasons.
From a sack standpoint, the Dolphins set a franchise record with 56 quarterback takedowns in 2023, but last year’s injuries and offensive struggles led to a 21-sack reduction.
Before that season the Dolphins defense has produced 40 or more sacks every season since 2020, and that should be the baseline of what’s expected from this defensive front, which is supposed to mask the shortcomings in the secondary, which received a total makeover this offseason.
Considering the Dolphins produced just 10 interceptions last season, it’s not like the unit could get worse than last year.
Miami’s defenders created 16 takeaways last season. Only the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars had fewer in 2024.
The league average for takeaways last season was 20.5, and the season before the average was 22.9. In 2022 it was 22.2, and in 2021 it was 22, and in 2020 it was 20.8. That means 22 turnovers (21.7 to be exact) is a reasonable expectation since that’s the league’s five-year average.
“We can be so much better than we were a year ago,” defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver said. “The unity, the guys that have been here, we got to start at a higher level than what we did a year ago. That’s what coaches and players like. There’s a higher vision for what we all expect it to look like.”
If everyone meets their bar, the Dolphins have the potential to become one of the best teams in the AFC, if not the entire league.
