Kelly: Dolphins should be in good spot with first-round pick | Opinion
Every year there are the same weak, tired excuses about the NFL Draft.
“The talent isn’t as good as past years,” one AFC evaluator claims about the 2025 NFL Draft crop of prospects.
“There are no sure-thing quarterbacks in this class,” claims a draftnik, whose name will not be disclosed because Cam Ward’s impending emergence as a promising rookie will make him look foolish.
The Miami Dolphins typically bemoan and complain about where the franchise is selecting, claiming it’s right outside where the elite players will be taken.
This is a song and dance we do every year, but somehow the good franchises find talented players in all the rounds, all throughout the draft, and sparingly have to rely on free agency to patch the roster.
With that said, it should be pointed out the Dolphins have a full arsenal of draft picks for the first time since 2021, and should have a variety of options if they hold onto pick No. 13.
Here are some possibilities.
Move Up in a Trade
This draft class is supposedly comparable to the 2013 class, where Miami moved up from pick No. 12 to pick No. 3, and did so spending the draft equivalent of 70 cents on the dollar. The error Miami made in that draft is they moved up to select pass rusher Dion Jordan instead of offensive tackle Lane Johnson.
The point is, if the Dolphins want to move up to select one of this draft’s eight premium prospects, they would likely have to give up pick No. 48 [the second-rounder] to do it. Problem is, the jury is out on whether Michigan cornerback Will Johnson or Missouri offensive lineman Armand Membou, two prospects who would become Day 1 starters for the Dolphins, are worthy of giving up draft picks, or future assets for. Is the drop-off between Johnson and Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron, or Membou and Alabama’s Tyler Booker worth losing a second-round pick?
Move Down In a Trade
This draft class has a limited number of prospects with legitimate first-round grades — between 13 and 17 I’m told, and it’s usually based on how each team evaluates — which means teams will be more willing to go down than move up.
But the Dolphins might luck into a receiver (Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan), tailback (Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty), or tight end (Penn State’s Tyler Warren) sliding, and some team in the higher teens, or early 20s being enticed to come get them. However, considering Dolphins general manager Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel need to hit a home run in this draft, it’s doubtful that they will go with the kill-two-birds-with-one-stone approach with this draft, moving down to acquire more picks, and might simply select the prospect who will have the best career.
Why? Because that looks better on an NFL resume for future employers. Do you really expect this regime to acquire draft picks for the next GM and head coach since they are both trying to save their jobs?
Select Best Player Available
Grier typically goes into every draft having filled out his roster well enough so he can draft the highest-rated player on his team’s draft board.
In full transparency, Miami’s draft board does heavily skew to team needs most years. But Grier generally waits till the later rounds (Day 3) to address needs. Exceptions are made from time to time, but a perfect example was last year’s draft.
Miami didn’t have a glaring need for a pass rusher, but chose Chop Robinson with the 21st pick, even though Miami needed an interior lineman badly. Then in Round 2 of the 2024 draft the Dolphins chose an offensive tackle (Patrick Paul) instead of upgrading the guard spot. And then the Dolphins acquired a fourth-round pick from the Philadelphia Eagles and used it on a tailback (Jaylen Wright) even though that was one of Miami’s deeper spots coming into the draft.
If Miami does go the best-player-available route we could be looking at the selection of a pass rusher (Georgia’s Jalon Walker of Texas A&M, defensive lineman Shemar Stewart), or a skill position player such as Warren, or Missouri receiver Luther Burden III. The Dolphins typically conduct business using a two-year viewpoint, so tight end Jonnu Smith and pass rusher Jaelan Phillips becoming unrestricted free agents at the end of this upcoming season, or Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb’s contracts becoming more escape-friendly in 2026 could influence a ton of draft-day decisions.
Select for Need
Miami’s fiscally responsible approach to free agency this offseason has left Miami out of the bidding for free agents who might have improved the team, and likely will force the Dolphins to lean heavily on the 2025 NFL Draft to fill roster holes.
Thursday’s re-signing of Benito Jones brings Miami’s total of defensive linemen under contract to four. That’s decent, but the team needs at least two more to make it through the regular season, and that’s with or without Calais Campbell’s return. And Campbell likely won’t make a decision on his NFL future until after the draft unless Miami or another team sweetens its offer.
The Dolphins added athletic, promising safeties in Ifeatu Melifonwu and Ashtyn Davis. But neither has established himself as an NFL starter who can anchor a secondary. That means safety remains a need.
But it’s not atop the list of needs. Offensive guard and cornerback sit there because the roster’s present construction makes Liam Eichenberg Miami’s starting offensive guard, and that’s begging for trouble based on his previous four seasons.
On top of that, the Dolphins have absolutely no proof that Cam Smith (99.8 passer rating when targeted), Storm Duck (100.2 passer rating when targeted), Ethan Bonner (27 defensive snaps in two seasons) or newcomer Artie Burns, an eight-year veteran with 39 NFL starts on his resume, are capable of handling the the task of starting opposite Jalen Ramsey, a seven-time Pro Bowler.
That means the Dolphins must exit the 2025 Draft with a potential starting cornerback, safety, offensive guard and defensive lineman. Even though Miami possesses 10 draft picks, that’s a ton to achieve with four of those selections being in the draft’s top 120 picks.
Especially when we consider that Miami will likely pick the second- or third-best player at those positions [except safeties, which generally go later] with the 13th selection.
And then, what happens when there’s a run on the positions that Miami needs on the draft’s second day, which is often the case, and leads to Dolphins desperation, like when Miami traded away a 2022 third-round pick to move up eight spots, putting the franchise in position to select Eichenberg in the 2021 Draft.
Trade picks for an established veteran
Draft week trades for veterans are a common occurrence, and might explain why we haven’t seen teams like Green Bay move expensive, but talented cornerback Jaire Alexander.
Some team will acquire the seven-year veteran, who has a $17.5 million price tag in 2025 unless his contract is restructured, for a third-day selection after they walk away from the early rounds empty-handed at cornerback, and have the cap space to rent Alexander for a season or two.
But it doesn’t, and shouldn’t stop there. The Lions traded tailback D’Andre Swift to the Eagles for what equates to a fourth-round pick after drafting his replacement (Jahmyr Gibbs) in the first round in 2023.
Elite players such as tight end George Kittle are being asked to play on expiring contracts, and that usually doesn’t sit well with those veterans, who could easily force their way to another team that’s willing to give up the cash.
It’s all about timing, and having the right connections, and cap space. The Dolphins organization has proven they are always ready and willing to do business with elite talents seeking a fresh opportunity, and a massive payday. So anything could be in play.
And that’s exactly where the Dolphins need to be.
