Kelly: This Dolphins season has been terrifying, but could get scarier | Opinion
As traumatic as the 2024 season has been for the Miami Dolphins, which sit at 2-5 heading into the toughest game of the season, facing the NFL version of Freddy Krueger, keep in mind this could have been worse.
Tua Tagovailoa could be lost for the entire season instead of making his return last week from the concussion the Buffalo Bills caused.
And if we’re going to be honest about this season, the Dolphins are a Jevon Holland forced fumble (which saved Miami from a Jaguars loss in the season opener), and a smaller foot (against New England, which had a final minute touchdown overturned because Ja’Lynn Polk’s heal was slightly out of bounds) from being winless this season.
While the season isn’t dead, it’s on life support heading into Sunday’s road game against Josh Allen, who has terrorized the Dolphins, producing a 110.0 passer rating with 3,502 yards and 34 touchdowns in the 13 games he has played Miami (two losses).
Since Thursday is Halloween let’s play a game of trick or truth about the 2024 Dolphins season.
▪ Trick or Truth: The Dolphins can be competitive with the Bills as constructed?
With a healthy Allen, history shows that Miami’s not in Buffalo’s league — even though they are in the same division — unless the Dolphins play a perfect game. The Bills have a better organization, from top to bottom, which should be an issue owner Steve Ross forces the people in power to address if the Bills sweep Miami again.
▪ Trick or Truth: Building a franchise around a fragile quarterback such as Tagovailoa is a waste of time, and seasons?
Every quarterback is in danger of losing a season to injuries, or sustaining a concussion. Tagovailoa’s limited size puts him a little more at risk than others, so there’s a little truth to this. However, Miami’s Pro Bowl quarterback plays with an accuracy, pocket presence and a timing that less than 10 percent of NFL quarterbacks have, and that’s worth a continued investment. With his new contract, it’s not like Miami has a choice but to continue riding with Tagovailoa. The Dolphins just need to hedge their bets and have a capable backup (think Joshua Dobbs) behind him.
▪ Trick or Truth: Raheem Mostert is past his prime and the backfield needs to be turned over to De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright.
Mostert’s yards per carry average (3.5 per carry) doesn’t reflect his true value to this offense as the seasoned veteran, and most experienced tailback, so this is a trick. He missed a month because of a chest injury, and people forget that Achane’s production tailed off.
Wright has had success in spurts, which explains his team-leading 5.3 yards per carry average, but he’s limited in his knowledge of the offense, and can’t play in every package and every scenario. Much like the team without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins would have to dumb down the offense to get the rookie on the field more at this point. However, it might be wise to give Wright some carries early and see if he gets hot.
But that doesn’t mean Mostert’s washed, and should be thrown into the old back pile. What he’s missing is a big run that would boost his yards per carry average, and that likely requires the Dolphins have a lead in the second half, which this franchise has sparingly had.
▪ Trick or Truth: The NFL has caught up to Mike McDaniel and his offense, and he can’t make adjustments. There might be some semblance of truth to this. At least that’s what I’m told by opposing defensive coaches. Miami’s opponents have crowded the middle of the field with knowledge that Tagovailoa rarely throws outside, and typically have two safeties positioned deep to prevent the big pass. The best recipe to beat that coverage is to run the ball effectively, which the Dolphins have done the past three games courtesy of a healthy offensive line.
However, when passing plays longer than 8 yards are needed to keep drives going, Miami has come up empty this season.
The Dolphins passing game in the red zone is also stagnant, and the absence of big targets to throw high-point balls to continues to plague this team. Odell Beckham Jr.’s presence could be beneficial here in time. There’s only so many fades the Dolphins can throw to Tyreek Hill in the end zone.
▪ Trick or Truth: The 2024 Dolphins defense is elite.
That’s a trick based on what we saw from the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, who is good, but not that good. While the defense has held this team down most of this season, there are areas being stressed — defensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback, linebacker and safety — because of roster shortcomings, and injuries.
Wait a minute, that’s every unit!
Some of these shortcomings (edge rusher, defensive tackle depth) were preventable with better offseason decisions, but some of these issues — particularly David Long Jr. and Jordan Poyer’s coverage issues, the absence of Kader Kohou and Holland — just have to play themselves out.
▪ Trick or Truth: General manager Chris Grier constructed this roster poorly.
Want to know the truth?
Grier and his staff watched Skylar Thompson and Mike White struggle all offseason in practices Tagovailoa sat out 11-on-11 drills while advocating for his new contract and Miami did nothing. When White was released Tim Boyle was the quarterback Miami added, and that’s not good enough.
Depth on the defense line has been problematic, and rears it ugly head this past week when Zach Sieler injured his eye in practice and needed to sit.
The offense line has exceeded expectations, but they are one injury away from being a disaster, and this franchise hasn’t started and finished the season with the same starting offensive line in over two decades.
That means it’s only a matter of time before the wheels fall off.
But the exact same thing can be said about the entire 2024 Dolphins season.
