Cote: Why ‘26 is perfect time for rebuilding Dolphins to be really bad | Opinion
Everyone (and by everyone I mean the folks who set the betting odds driven by public consensus) agrees the Miami Dolphins will be pretty awful this coming season. Whether they will be awful enough is open to some debate. So is how they might parlay that awfulness to best advantage ... and how they should.
All of the above assures this will be a most fascinating, important upcoming NFL season in Miami even as it is one mired in the onset of a massive startover fronted by new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan, new head coach Jeff Hafley and new quarterback Malik Willis.
For historical perspective it has been almost 20 years since this degree of franchise overhaul, since 2008, when the Fins had a new GM in Jeff Ireland, a new coach in Tony Sparano and a new QB in Chad Pennington. That team went 11-5, and I still can’t fathom that Sparano didn’t win coach of the year.
The current team’s expectations are basement level: a wagering over/under of 4 1/2 victories, tied with Arizona for league worst. Miami’s odds of 300-1 to win the Super Bowl are second worst to the Cardinals’ 400-1. Then it’s the Jets at 200-1 and the Raiders and Browns each at 150-1. This is the company you keep, Dolfans. At least for now.
The upside? A real shot at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft and consensus top gun Arch Manning, the Texas quarterback and nephew of Uncle Peyton and Uncle Eli. It would take a top-three overall pick to also have a shot at Oregon’s Dante Moore, presently the only other consensus can’t-miss QB in the next draft.
I have seen no fewer than 10 other QBs mentioned in mock drafts as possible first-rounders in ‘27 (including Miami’s Darian Mensah), but Manning and Moore stand apart as elite and sure (barring anything unforeseen) to go in the top three overall.
In other words this would be a very bad year for the Miami Dolphins to be appreciably better than expected and win their way out of a shot at Miami’s first difference-making long-term solution at QB since Dan Marino’s reign from 1983 to 1999. The Fins have since deployed 28 different starting QBs. The only two passers Miami has drafted in the first round post-Marino, Ryan Tannehill in 2012 and Tua Tagovailoa in 2020, spent a combined 13 years (fitting number) failing to win a playoff game in a meager three tries.
The NBA is obsessed with teams “tanking.” Not saying here that the Dolphins should do that, but the reality is this would be a particularly bad year for Miami to exceed expectations, to finish, say, 7-10, and blow a shot at Manning or Moore.
This puts the new Sullivan/Hafley regime in an unenviable spot. Every fiber in their football DNA will tell them to win every game. But every internal whisper they would never admit to might remind them that suffering an as-bad-as-expected 2026 will do this franchise — and their jobs with it — the greater good long-term.
That the Fins should draft either Manning or Moore if they get the chance should of course be obvious, a given.
It is not.
A lot of early ‘27 mock drafts have Miami ending up with the second pick (after Arizona) and taking Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. On the Dan Le Batard Show recently I said the Fins’ grand prize for a really bad season would be and should be Manning, and he argued they would take Smith.
That thinking wrongly assumes Miami knows it has its quarterback of the future in Willis, the free agent they signed in March to a three-year, $67.5 million deal in their only significant spending of the offseason. I believe Willis was a smart signing at a good price, but that he should be seen as a stopgap, a bridge to what’s next. He has had six career NFL starts. It’s notable his money is guaranteed for only two years, not three.
If Willis wows everybody with a great season, maybe we recalibrate. Then again if Willis wows everybody with a great season, chances are Miami wins enough to make any thought of Manning or even Moore a moot point, anyway. But barring that, the Dolphins would be insane to pass on a franchise QB for a receiver, or because they were all-in on Willis.
The idea of Miami actually being bad enough for a shot at Manning is dicey, precarious. First, I like what I’m seeing of Hafley thus far. A run-first offense led by De’Von Achane has promise. And the recent Sullivan-orchestrated draft was solid as those 13 picks gather on the field when Miami resumes organized team activities (OTAs) on May 18.
A growing consensus is that the draft was actually pretty damned good, despite that initial disappointment in South Florida that top pick Kadyn Proctor, the Alabama tackle, was chosen 12th overall instead of Miami Hurricanes star edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. ESPN just ranked what is called the draft’s 100 best picks/steals/fits and the Dolphins had an impressive six, with five of them in the top 40 — including Proctor.
If this rookie draft class blossoms collectively this season enough to have a real impact it would help Miami surprise the doubters and oddsmakers by being not that bad.
But that is what makes the coming 2026 season such a weird time to be a Dolphins fan.
You can’t have both ... so is it better to win this season, or to win at the top of the ‘27 draft?
There’s only one answer, really.
