Cote: No. 13 Canes cruise at Va. Tech but skewed logic impeding CFP hope | Opinion
One week left in college football’s regular season and the Miami Hurricanes are fighting skewed logic and perceptions that seem unlikely to budge. It feels destined to be a losing battle.
One year ago the Canes were 10-2 but the odd-team out in the first year of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
This season UM could finish with the same record but again be the unlikely 13th and come up agonizingly short of a playoff invite.
Saturday in Blacksburg did not help as much as it might have.
No. 13-ranked Miami beat Virginia Tech 34-17 to improve to 9-2, but the less than overwhelming margin over a now 3-8 opponent almost certainly won’t impress the CFP committee much, despite UM being in control of the outcome start to finish. Still, if anything, the result will be seen as a rote victory that only feeds any anti-Canes narrative out there.
It isn’t particularly fair -- especially as it relates to UM ranking behind Notre Dame -- but it is the Canes’ reality.
Miami closes its regular season next week at recently but not currently ranked Pitt in what will be a challenging game, no gimmie. And the reality is the Hurricanes could win with authority, a triumph statement-big, and still be a longshot to rise into the CFP’s final top 12.
That’s as long as No 9-ranked Notre Dame also wins out to finish with the same record as UM.
The unbudging perception and skewed logic is that the Fighting Irish are better than the Canes -- even though Miami won 27-24, head to-head, in the season opener. And even though the Canes are 3-0 vs. ranked opponents to the Irish’ 2-2.
Coach Mario Cristobal alluded to all that when asked postgame why he elected to pass and score again in the final minute.
“We’re playing ball, man. We’re not slowing town,” he said. “Some people call it ‘style points.’ People throw around the term ‘eye test.’ Well how about the field test, where head-to-to-head matters.”
Bull’s-eye on that one. The CFP committee’s infatuation with Notre Dame would be comical if it weren’t so sad, or perhaps suspicious enough to merit an inquiry.
Even ESPN’s Paul Finebaum doesn’t get it.
“There is a bias. Let’s just go ahead and admit it,” he said on-air the other day. “This committee, I have no earthly idea why they can’t move beyond it because they’re supposed to be objective. I feel badly for Miami. They got knocked out last year, the last team out along with Alabama. They did some it themselves [this season]. But they beat Notre Dame. Shouldn’t head-to-head matter in college football or in any sporting event? Apparently to this committee, it does not matter at all.”
Head-to-head results should always be the reliable first tiebreaker for the playoff committee when other key parameters such as won-lost records are even. But that logic seems to have escaped these voters.
Because of this the analytics and computers give Miami a 29 percent likelihood of making the CFP after Saturday’s win. It would project to 40 percent, still unlikely, if UM also wins next week.
Sure enough, in ESPN’s projected CFP top 12 playoff following this weekend’s results, Miami was nowhere to be seen.
UM also would need much final week luck, a ton of it, to sneak into the ACC Championship Game, which is why Miami relies mainly on an at-large invitation to get in. The Canes’ two losses both were close but both to conference teams, Louisville and then at SMU. That figures to prove unsurvivable for Miami even though as many as four other two-loss teams could make the playoffs.
Cristobal knew his team was climbing uphill on a steep slope as it kicked off in Blacksburg, needing as dominant a performance as possible. They came close, led by Carson Beck’s four touchdown passes of 20 yards to Elija Lofton, 3 yards to Mark Fletcher Jr. in his return from injury, 16 yards to Gerard Pringle Jr. and 20 yards to brilliant freshman Malachi Toney.
“Felt super-confident out there,” said Beck.
The fact that last TD pass came with 20 seconds to play showed how much Miami wanted and needed more points to impress playoff voters.
Beck was super-efficient and threw for 320 yards with accuracy, though Miami’s defense was not its dominant self, especially against the run, despite yielding only 10 points. Virginia Tech played hard as players were out to impress newly hired coach James Franklin, formerly of Penn State, who was present, though not on the sideline.
Next, all the Hurricanes can do is win at Pitt and hope Notre Dame loses at lowly Stanford.
If both win to finish 10-2, Miami relies on a miracle: CFP voters remembering that the Canes beat the Irish head-to-head this season -- and acting as if that should sort of matter.
This story was originally published November 22, 2025 at 3:51 PM.
