Hurricanes hugely better in Cristobal’s Year 2, & beating No. 9 Louisville would prove it | Opinion
The minute Texas A&M fired football coach Jimbo Fisher a few days ago — willing to pay a record $77.6 million buyout to be suddenly rid of him — the news reverberated down in Coral Gables. Nonsensically, it did. But predictably, too.
Any Miami Hurricanes fan disappointed by coach Mario Cristobal 22 games into his 10-year, $80 million contract (and there are many) saw A&M’s bold yet fiscally insane move as some sort of template for UM’s options.
One day later a betting site put out odds on next-coach-fired in college football and there was Cristobal’s name among 15 on the list.
Stop it!
Anybody who honestly believes Cristobal is or should be on a “hot seat” best keep their crackpot delusion to themselves, as they might think their lifetime membership in the Flat Earth Society or steadfast belief the government is being run by aliens.
I’m text buddies with a few members of the UM Board of Trustees (current or emeritus) and reached out to ask about this imaginary link between A&M firing Fisher and Miami’s regard for Cristobal’s future. And got the reaction I expected.
“They gave Jimbo six years. Mario’s in Year 2. Give the guy a minute,” read one reply.
“What are you smoking!?” read another, with a fitting emoji.
The Hurricanes are 11-11 under Cristobal so far and a desultory 5-9 in the ACC but he is presently in zero job jeopardy, nor should he be.
The reason might be gleaned from how Texas A&M athletic director Ross Bjork explained the Fisher firing: “It just goes back to the last couple of years. Do we have momentum? Do we have hope? How do we see things trending? And we just didn’t see the trend lines improving.”
Progress, in other words.
Fisher had stalled.
UM’s acceleration from Cristobal’s first season to this one is palpably clear. And quantifiable.
There is something in college football called a Simple Rating System, which combines point differential with strength of schedule to assign every team a numerical grade every year, with zero indicating average. For perspective, UM’s grade was 26.17 in 2001 when it was unbeaten and won the school’s last of five national championships.
Last year, Cristobal’s first back at his alma mater, the 5-7 season wrought a minus-2.91 rating. He had inherited from Manny Diaz a roster in disrepair, especially on both lines.
This season, at 6-4, UM’s rating is 9.36, the school’s best since 2017.
Progress.
Cristobal’s skill at recruiting, both high schools and the transfer portal, is beginning to show.
“Do we have hope?” the man who fired Fisher asked.
“Yes,” should be a Canes fan’s answer right now.
The way the loss to Georgia Tech inexcusably ended will be on Cristobal like an embarrassing tattoo the rest of his career.
But Miami has beaten a then-ranked Texas A&M this year; helped Fisher get fired. The Canes beat Clemson, their longtime nemesis. They faced No. 4-ranked Florida State in Tallahassee and went toe to toe in a 27-20 loss.
This Saturday, in the season’s home finale vs. No. 10-ranked Louisville, the matinee game is a near-tossup. Miami actually was a half-point favorite when last I checked, and given a 53.9 percent chance of winning by ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The timing would be perfect for a strong finish by Miami, with the transfer portal opening December 4 and the early signing period commencing December 20.
Tyler Van Dyke will return at quarterback Saturday looking for redemption with freshman Emory Williams’ injury at FSU.
It will be interesting to see how UM fans treat Van Dyke, who had been benched after a spate of turnovers. He needs the fans’ support. Let’s see if Canes fans can rise to that level.
I think UM has a great shot to beat Louisville, end with a win at Boston College, finish 8-4 and get into a credible bowl game.
“How do we see things trending?” asked the man who fired Fisher.
“Up,” is the answer in Miami.
The U paid a $9 million buyout to Oregon just for the right to sign Cristobal. Not suggesting he will last his entire 10-year contract here, but UM certainly would give him at least a few more years as long as improvement continues evident.
It must, though. Because impatience is baked into college football now.
The transfer portal, NIL money, conference upheaval, roster makeovers such as what Deion Sanders has done at Colorado --all of it serves to make the sport win-now, no gradual buildups allowed. That’s why, led by A&M with Fisher, we have seen Power 5 schools pay $146 millions in buyouts to change coaches just since last season.
Cristobal might yet be swallowed in that. Schools (and fans) can turn fast on a coach they were so sure was a savior.
But that does not apply here, not yet.
Cristobal calls his Year 2 “a significant jump, significant progress in where we are and where we’re headed.”
He isn’t wrong.
This story was originally published November 15, 2023 at 12:28 PM.
