Dreams deferred: Heat, Panthers lose, fail to reach East finals — but still lead in series | Opinion
It was a double-dream deferred for the Miami Heat and Florida Panthers in the playoffs on Wednesday night, each with a chance to close out their series and earn a spot in the Eastern Conference finals in their sport, but neither getting the needed victory.
The two South Florida teams had rocketed from the obscurity of No. 8 seeds to win 12 of the past 13 playoff games between them this spring.
After such runs, that meant each was due a stumble, perhaps.
We have thought that before as the winning continued, but Wednesday came that stumble, both on the home ice in Sunrise, and concurrently on the hardwood at Madison Square Garden..
The Cinderella 8’s were flat.
The Panthers lost 2-1 to the Toronto Maple Leafs, denied what would have been the first four-game sweep in franchise history but still comfortably up at 3-1 entering their Game 5 in Toronto Friday night. The Panthers avoided what would have been only their second shutout all season when Sam Reinhart scored with 7:46 left.
The Heat lost 112-103 at the New York Knicks but still lead 3-2 with a chance to clinch in Game 6 at home Friday night. Miami shot terribly and was especially abysmal on three-point attempts, making only 13 of 43 and missing a ton of good-look 3’s.. And “Playoff Jimmy” was not, with an ordinary 19 points.
“Would that have changed things if we had knocked down a few of those open looks? It potentially could have,” said coach Erik Spoelstra afterward. “But you got to find a way to win even if you’re not knocking down wide open threes.”
ESPN’s Jalen Rose had said (ludicrously) that the Knicks’ struggles to win in Miami might have owed to the South Florida weather tiring them out.
Thank goodness for Toronto that the Leafs did not succumb to the same and miraculously survived the debilitating weather over a few days here after the previous game on Sunday.
The postseason history of the two sports suggests the Panthers and Heat still are in good shape and still very likely to advance to the conference finals.
In NHL history teams ahead in a series 3-0 are 199-4, advancing 98.1 percent of the time. When those teams lose and are up 3-1 as Florida is now their win ratio is still 302-32, or 90.4 percent. (Then again, that was the supposedly enviable position Boston enjoyed in the previous series — then the Panthers won three in a row.)
This is only the second time Florida has ever led a series 3-1, and they won that first one vs. Boston in the first round in 1996.
In NBA history teams with a 3-1 lead advance 95.1 percent of the time, but teams that then lose and are up 3-2 like Miami is now see their win-likelihood dip to 84.9 percent (191-34). When it’s 3-2 the way this series is, with a Game 6 at the leading team but Game 7 away, the advance likelihood to win the series is 81.8 percent (18-4).
The Heat has led a playoff series 3-2 11 times before and is 9-2 advancing, including the last eight times in a row.
So neither Panthers nor Heat fans should be especially nervous. Not right now, at least. (Check back if the next games are lost, too.)
The Eastern Conference finals still a win away for both has a very different historic weight for each.
The Heat has been there, done this. A lot. Miami seeks its 10th trip to the conference finals. Six have led to the NBA Finals and three to championships.
The Panthers have reached the ECF once. Ever. It was way back in ‘96, in the franchise’s fourth season of existence.
Toronto scored 3:28 into the second period Wednesday when William Nylander’s tip-in trickled past Sergei Bobrovsky and slowly over the goalline on a power play, with Florida’s Eetu Luostarinen in the penalty box. A pass deflected off a referee and onto Nylanders’ stick. Florida had gone the entire previous game with no penalties and no advantage given, but when that streak ended Wednesday, it hurt.
“Unlucky bounce, but it is what it is,” said Bobrovsky.
That scant 1-0 score held into the third period, one team looking for a sweep, the other simply for life.
Toronto was up 2-0 on Mitchell Marner’s goal through traffic. Reinhart made the horn blast on a night of not much to cheer for Cats fans, but Florida could not send it to overtime and saw its postseason streak end at six straight wins.
“Didn’t quite establish our forecheck,” said Reinhart of the night. “We didn’t establish our offensive game.”
Said coach Paul Maurice: “There were parts of our game I didn’t love. We slowed our game down at times. Got in the penalty box a little bit. But, hey, we lost a game . It happens in the playoffs. ”
Up the coast in New York, Miami led by as many as 10 points and the Knicks by 19, but NYK got back into with an 18-2 run to start the second quarter and got 38 points from Jalen Brunson. Miami got only 19 from Jimmy Butler on 5-for-12 shooting, his first time under 25 points this postseason. Scapegoat Kevin Love if you must.
Define the Heat and Panthers by their next performance, not this one.
They have earned that benefit of doubt. For now, though:
Panthers fans still in the emptying arena were chanting, “Go, Heat go!” after their game had ended but with Miami still fighting for the win in New York as the fans followed the late hoops action on their phones.
They left twice disappointed.
This story was originally published May 10, 2023 at 10:12 PM.
