Gamble of inaction: 5 answers will tell if quiet Miami Heat offseason was risky or smart | Opinion
Past to present, the Miami Heat has earned the trust of its fans more than any other sports franchise in South Florida, no discussion needed or argument allowed.
Right now, though, the team is testing that faith, that belief.
The offseason has been a surprising and disappointing gamble of inaction as the Heat opens a week of preseason training camp in the Bahamas.
Other NBA Eastern Conference rivals have been bold and gotten better — well, bold for sure, improvement to be determined — while Miami has quietly stood pat with the roster that was the East’s No. 1 seed last season and came within a shot or so of reaching the Finals.
Wait, no. Not stood pat. Regressed, because the Heat lost starter and key player P.J. Tucker to Philadelphia in free agency this offseason. With East rivals adding talent and Miami losing Tucker, it is hard to not think the Heat is in worse position right now than at the end of last season.
With club president Pat Riley at the prow of the ship Miami has made the playoffs in 21 of his 27 seasons and delivered three championship parades and three other NBA Finals appearances.
“Winning is what we do here,” as Tyler Herro put it Monday, at the team’s annual media day session at the downtown arena to tip off training camp. “Whether winning championships or just being competitive year in year out.”
All true. And so is this:
The stability of this franchise earns faith, not just the winning. Look around again.
Boston Celtics head coach Ime Udoka is suspended for the entire upcoming season for an affair with a staff member in violation of team rules. Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver is suspended for racist remarks and a hostile workplace and now says he will sell. The Brooklyn Nets endured a tumultuous offseason with superstar Kevin Durant asking for a trade before reluctantly agreeing to stay.
The Miami Heat? A pillar of professionalism under owner Micky Arison, Riley and coach Erik Spoelstra.
No controversy here; well, the club has yet to extend Herro’s contract, but that’s hardly a scandal like others that have rocked the NBA.
Still, though, on the court, size up the East now and wonder if the Heat is better than fourth best in the conference, and how much even that might depend on a few significant “ifs” falling right.
If there is benefit of doubt in buying the Heat’s strategy of avoiding the offseason trading frenzy, it is given cautiously, even skeptically.
The Heat kicked tires on interest in Durant when he seemed available but would not give up enough in return, notably Bam Adebayo. Likewise, there was interest in an available Donovan Mitchell, but Miami wold not agree to break up its core.
So Durant stays in the East with Brooklyn. And Mitchell comes to the East in a trade to Cleveland.
And Boston adds Malcolm Brogdon.
And Atlanta adds Dejounte Murray to pair with Trae Young.
And New York adds Jalen Brunson.
And Philadelphia keeps James Harden when he agrees to a reworked discount deal.
While Miami’s biggest move is a minus in losing Tucker.
“The Heat losing Tucker to the Sixers is a massive blow,” wrote Sports Illustrated’s Rohan Nadkarni. “Not only does Miami lose him to a conference, but they have yet to replace him.”
ESPN’s 2022 rank of the NBA’s Top 100 players included Jimmy Butler at No. 17, Adebayo 22nd, Kyle Lowry 60th and Tyler Herro 61st.
Boston and Cleveland each had six players ranked, Atlanta had five and five other teams equaled Miami’s four. And five East teams have players ranked higher than Butler: the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo (first), the 76ers’ Joel Embiid (fourth) and Harden (11th), the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum (seventh), the Nets’ Durant (eighth) and the Hawks’ Young (16th).
The five big Heat questions whose answers will determine if the team was wise or foolish with its offseason gamble of inaction:
▪ How much more does Bam have to give? Adebayo’s rebounding and defense are elite. Now Miami needs another gear from him offensively. He averaged only 13 shots a game last season. Riley wants at least 15. Adebayo said Monday he wants “close to 18 shots, “ adding, “we’re a lot better team when I’m scoring the basketball.”
He joked, “I’m going to be like Tyler [Herro] and see orange [want the ball].”
How will the offense adapt to get Adebayo more shots?
“That’s a Spo question,” said Bam. But you heard what the old man [Riley] said to me.”
▪ Will Butler be asked to play new position? Speculation is the Heat’s small forward might be moved to power forward to replace Tucker. Butler showed up Monday sporting long dreadlocks in thick shoulder-length ropes, playfully denying they were extensions. He hopes a position change does not amount to another new look for him.
“I don’t care about that speculation, I don’t play the 4 [power forward],” he said. “I could play the 4 if they absolutely want to have that conversation, yes. But I’m not gonna do it.”
Butler does not need a role switch at this point. What he does need, at age 33, is more offensive help from Adebayo [see above].
▪ Will Herro start, and start to get paid? By October 17 the Heat must lucratively extend Herro’s contract by at least four years or risk losing him in free agency next summer.
That’s one big decision. Here’s another: Will the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year finally get the starting position he covets? It would be over Max Strus if he does.
Herro played company man on both Monday, saying he will let his agent worry about the contract matter. As for starting, “Whatever Spo and the organization want I’m willing to do.”
Tough call: Herro really wants to start, says not doing so cost him an All-Star selection last season, but he must show much-improved defense to earn that role. And he is so valuable off the bench, leading the team in fourth-quarter minutes last season.
▪ Who will replace Tucker in the lineup? Assuming it isn’t Butler [see above], Caleb Martin is looking like the guy.
“He’s an athletic wing,” said Adebayo of Martin. “He’s quicker, more athletic [than Tucker]. He’s been in the gym countless hours working on his shot.”
Under bench-loving, depth-flexing Spoelstra, who starts in place of Tucker might be less important than the rotation filling the role.
Said Butler: “We’ll find a way to get done what we want to get done.”
▪ How much left in the tank, Kyle Lowry? He is 36 now, with a history of physical fitness questions. He had quite a bad postseason last year, though injuries played a role.
Lowry is the quintessential fading star at a crossroads as this season nears.
Will he be in great shape and ready to remind us how good he used to be? Or will the feared decline continue?
Miami will be competitive, as usual, and especially if these big five questions turn around favorably.
But even if they do, one overarching question will loom:
Can the Heat get to the NBA Finals through a tougher Eastern Conference after playing spectator this offseason while other teams boldly gambled and dealt?
This story was originally published September 26, 2022 at 2:53 PM.
