Heat-Celtics, Panthers-Lightning making history: 3 keys to each series, who’ll win and why | Opinion
The Miami Heat and Florida Panthers are making history as the NBA and NHL playoffs dig deeper -- both advancing in the postseason together for the first time. Each is a No. 1 seed. No other metropolitan region of the country has two teams still alive.
And the idea that, next month, both the Heat and Panthers might be planning championship parades does not seem preposterous.
Well, not in South Florida.
Maybe everywhere else, though.
See, the two No. 1 seeds with the home-court and home-ice advantage still feel like the underdogs.
The postseason still feels like a proving ground for both as each host Game 1 Tuesday night -- Heat vs. rival Boston in the Eastern Conference finals and Panthers vs. rival Tampa Bay in the East semifinals.
Oh, and too bad for fans of both teams who hoped to watch all the games live. Six of the possible seven games are scheduled the same day with overlapping times. Each team’s Game 3 is the only one on different days.
Panthers requested to the NHL to play on a different night than the Heat, and the league and TV networks could have gotten together to accommodate, but that would have made too much sense. So dumb. So avoidable. Shame on NHL commissioner Gary Bettman.
OK, now back to the Heat and Panthers as unlikely underdogs.
Miami is literally one, to the Celtics. Every major sportsbook and the betting public is saying so. Although the Heat is a scant 1 1/2-point home favorite in Game 1, Boston is a consensus pick to win the series and advance to the Finals vs. Golden State (likely) or Dallas.
Ceasars Sportsbook odds, for example, have Boston at +225 to advance and Miami at +420. Anecdotally, an eight-person cbssports.com experts panel predicted Celtics by 8-0.
Over in the rink, Florida is a betting favorite both in Game 1 and the series, but the burden is on the Cats -- this far in the playoffs for the first time since 1996 -- to beat a double-reigning Stanley Cup champion in Tampa, full of playoff mettle and proof, and trying to become the NHL’s first triple champ since the New York Islanders won four in a row in 1979-83.
The Lightning have been there, done that.
The Panthers have not been here or done this -- at least not since before some of their current players were born.
As Cats forward Sam Reinhart said of Tampa Bay: “They’re the team everyone wants to be, [the team] everyone wants to beat.”
Says Florida coach Andrew Brunette: “They helped make us better. We saw what it takes.”
The Sunshine State rivals split four games this season and have met in the playoffs only once before and it was last year, when Tampa Bay ended a 4-2 series win with a 4-0 shutout in Tampa.
The Lightning, with three Stanley Cups along the same franchise timeline, always have played big brother to the Panthers.
Have things changed?
“We’re going to find out,” said Reinhart.
The Heat and Celtics have been more even as adversaries fighting for the top of the NBA East.
Miami has reached eight of the past 18 Eastern Conference finals and Boston seven of the past 15. This is the teams’ fifth meeting in the ECF. Celtics won the first in 2010, but Heat have won the past three straight, in 2011, ‘12 and again in the pandemic bubble of 2020.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra on Monday called this a “throwback series.” Expect turbo-intensity, tempers on edge and scores in the 90s.
Our three keys in each series and prediction for the Heat and Panthers:
PANTHERS-LIGHTNING:
▪ The penalty box -- Rough, physical Tampa Bay will try to engage Florida and bait the Panthers into penalties -- especially after seeing the first round, when the Cats were a bizarrely inept 0-for-18 on power plays vs. Washington, while giving up six goals on the penalty kill. “We can’t be undisciplined,” said Brunette.
▪ Leads are a good thing -- The “Comeback Cats” led NHL with 29 rally-wins this season and had three comebacks in a row to win the Washington series, but dangerous to go to that well too often, especially against a savvy, veteran defense like Tampa’s. Getting a lead may be where Jonathan Huberdeau comes in. Carter Verhaeghe was Florida’s best guy in the O-zone in first series, but Huerdeau was second in league with a club-record 115 points during season., including 10 in three games vs. Tampa. He was quiet vs. Washington with three points. Time for some noise from him.
▪ More of this Bob, please --- Brunette, asked who’d start in goal in Game 1, answer with a laugh. Of course it will be Sergei Bobrovksy off a stellar showing in round one. Now Tampa presents a worthy adversary at the net in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Much of this season, with Florida’s high-octane, league-leading goal scoring, outstanding goaltender play has sometimes seemed a luxury, something not always even necessary. It will be this series.
Our pick: Florida Panthers in 6 games.
HEAT-CELTICS:
▪ Butler vs. Tatum -- Miami’s Jimmy Butler (28.7-point average in playoffs) and Boston’s Jayson Tatum (28.3) have been lights out in postseason, each with the ability to lift his team. In what could be a low-scoring series, either going on a timely late run could be the difference. The question is who else will step up offensively for the Heat? Boston has a legit secondary scoring threat in Jaylen Brown. The Heat need Bam Adebayo’s scoring to rise to the level of his defense -- and need more than we’ve seen these playoffs from Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro.
▪ Defense, defense -- A bedrock of Heat Culture is defense. Now, for first time this postseason, Miami might be meeting its match in stopping the other guy. Boston has been the best defensive team in the NBA the second half of the season. It lifted guard Marcus Smart to Defensive Player of the Year honors -- a trophy many thought Adebayo deserved. The better here of two elite D’s figures to be the difference.
▪ 3-point shots, Lowry: Miami was the most prolific 3-point team during the season but has been erratic in the playoffs, shooting only 32.1 percent, with only Max Strus a real force beyond the arc. Boston is shooting 37.0 percent from deep and has five guys averaging at least two 3s per game. Miami has only Strus. Whenever you’re ready, Tyler Herro. As for point guard Kyle Lowry? Heat is 6-0 without him this postseason as he nurses a tender hamstring, but his healthy return at some point this series could be a needed edge.
Our pick: Miami Heat in 7 games.
Enjoy history in the making, South Florida: Heat and Panthers both this deep in the playoffs together for the first time. Both challenging for a championship would not surprise much. Neither would both losing in this round.
The finding out starts Tuesday night.
This story was originally published May 16, 2022 at 2:14 PM.
