Miami’s 2-0 lead over Philly? Why NBA odds — and Heat history — say this series is over | Opinion
This series is over. Sorry, Philadelphia. Sorry Doc. Sorry James. Feel better, Joel. But it won’t be enough.
Sorry as well to any Heat fans who get spooked stepping on sidewalk cracks. Don’t mean to jinx anything by this, but NBA history tells us 92.4 percent of teams up 2-0 go on to win a seven-game playoff series. It’s an even better bet with Miami. The Heat is 18-for-18 advancing when up 2-nil. Never caved and lost. Ever.
Even heading back to Philly for two starting Friday, and even with 76ers star center Joel Embiid maybe (or maybe not) back from injury in Game 3 or 4, Miami is in an enviable spot thanks to Wednesday night’s 119-103 Game 2 home win. But it isn’t just history that suggests it.
Along with defense, the Heat’s depth off the bench is a major difference in this matchup, and that starts with one man. Well, maybe two.
One’s surname is pronounced “Hero,” as if that weren’t a bit too storybook. The other answers to Victor Oladipo.
Tyler Herro was given his NBA Sixth Man of the Year award — a small crystal basketball — during the team’s midday shootaround practice. Udonis Haslem did the honors in bestowing the bauble.
Again in a pregame ceremony Wednesday, fans cheered as Herro was introduced as he became the first Heat player ever to win the award symbolizing the best off-the-bench player in the game. Dwayne Wade sat courtside, as if christening the moment
“Our ‘X’ factor when he’s in rhythm,” says coach Erik Spoelstra of Herro.
In this case the award also indicates Herro’s selflessness, while his game is a big reason why Miami was the most accurate three-point shooting team of any this season.
In Game 1 Herro led the Heat with 25 points. In Game 2 he added 18, most of them in key spots to either stem a Sixers run or get Miami’s attack revving. He was 3 of 5 on threes.
Bam Adebayo had 23 points and Jimmy Butler 22 for Miami, and Oladipo added 19 on his 30th birthday.
“I don’t feel 30. I feel 21,” he said. “Well, let’s say 25.”
Herro and Oladipo, both on the floor among late closers, led Miami to a 50-17 rout of Philly in bench scoring Wednesday night. In Game 1 the Heat margin was 42-21.
Miami also dominated from three-land Wednesday, shooting 14-of-29 to the Sixers’ 8-for-30.
Herro’s impact off the bench and accuracy from deep is a big reason why a formerly prominent member of the Heat has faded to a marginal role.
With apologies to Simon & Garfunkel, their song “Mrs. Robinson” and the film “The Graduate”:
Where have you gone, Duncan Robinson? Heat Nation turns its lonely eyes to you. (Woo woo woo).
Well, OK. Up 2-0 on Philly after a 4-1 dispatch of Atlanta in the first round, Heat fans probably don’t have lonely eyes searching for Robinson.
What’s happened to him is worth exploring, though.
Robinson has a five-year, $90 million contract, or $18M per season, fourth richest on the team behind Butler, Adebayo and Kyle Lowry. Robinson is the one who’s been relegated to a bit player.
The guys poaching his minutes — Max Strus, who replaced him in the starting lineup in March, Gabe Vincent, starting in place of the injured Lowry, and Caleb Martin — are making $4.1 million per year … combined.
(Herro, a major contract coming, is making less than a quarter what Robinson is.)
Robinson opened this postseason with a team-high 27 points off the bench against Atlanta in Game 1, his 8-for-9 on three-point shots a a club record for playoff threes.
After which there has been an all-points-bulletin out for his whereabouts.
The four first-round games that followed Robinson averaged 2.2 points in limited minutes, and was 2-for-10 on threes.
He did not play at all in Game 1 of this series (“coach’s decision’), a rare healthy scratch for him. He was that again, DNP, in Game 2.
Robinson has started 208 of 224 games the past three seasons but seen his three-point accuracy wane — compounding his being seen as a liability on defense. He lost his starting job to Strus, and the team has been winning with Robinson relegated.
Miami’s development of young talent and the emergence of others gets right credit for Robinson’s relative disappearance.
It also allows putting off the idea the Heat seems to have made a colossal monetary miscalculation in giving him what he got. They knew all along they were paying big for a guy who could hit deep but was not a two-way player.
Can they now find a trade partner willing to take on his contract? Or is this postseason thus far not an accurate measure of how Miami regards Robinson moving forward.
When you are winning, the questions get tabled. (But do not go away.)
Meanwhile the 76ers are counting on Embiid’s return — still in doubt for Game 3 — is a cure-all.
Philly coach Doc Rivers conveyed an almost defeatist attitude before Game 2. The Sixers’ frequent deployment of zone defense to upset rhythm has been borne of desperation.
“We don’t have a big man right now,” Rivers said. “[Miami has] more options. They can go big and they can go small. We have what we have because of Joel.”
Afterward Rivers said “I really don’t know” if Embiid will be ready Friday, but the Heat prepare as if he will be.
“They’re coming home and they’re in an 0-2 hole,” said Adebayo. “So I expect him to play.”
“It changes dramatically [if he plays],” said Spoelstra. “We’re talking about MVP talent. But it’s better for us to change [if it changes] dramatically after we have a couple wins.”
Even if Embiid does makes a fast return, there is still that weight of history on what the Heat’s 2-0 series lead means: A 92.4 percent advance-likelihood in NBA annals, and 18-for-18 in Heat history.
That’s not to mention Lowry’s possible return Friday, and Miami’s reliable X factors in Herro and Oladipo off the bench.
Spoelstra calls Herro “our sixth starter,” which must make Oladipo 6A as the series shifts to Philadelphia.
This story was originally published May 4, 2022 at 10:04 PM.
