NBA history says Miami still in charge, but Heat’s blown Game 3 lead gives Atlanta life | Opinion
A “suspicious package” delayed the start of the game Friday night. Then the Atlanta Hawks delayed the Miami Heat’s waltz through this first-round NBA playoff series.
NBA history suggests the Miami Heat are still in command, even with Friday night’s Game 3 playoff loss in Atlanta. The numbers say the Hawks won’t come back to win this first-round series.
That may be worth some solace to Heat fans. Probably not much, though.
Miami had the Hawks extinguished, with a 16-point third quarter lead and 14 points in the fourth, seeming headed to a 3-0 series advantage.
“We let up,” said Bam Adebayo.
“We’ve got to be better,” said Jimmy Butler.
No team in NBA history, of course -- not once, ever ever ever -- has blown a 3-0 series lead and failed to advance. Which means no team has ever done what the Hawks were staring at.
That changed in a 111-110 Atlanta win on Trae Young’s short floating jumper with 4.4 seconds to play to draw the Hawks within 2 games to 1.
Game 4 is Sunday, then game is back in Miami Tuesday night.
The historical odds still overwhelmingly favor the Heat, but for now we have us a series, some drama, just what you want out of the NBA playoffs.
Speaking of drama: The “suspicious package” left outside the Atlanta basketball arena Friday night delayed the start of Game 3 by 40 minutes. It was a false alarm found to contain no explosives or anything else threatening, which meant we could now wonder in jest whether the Hawks themselves might have planted the package in a desperate effort to delay the inevitable in this.
After all, the 3-0 series lead that seemed in Miami’s pocket early in the fourth quarter wold have meant it was all but over.
Now, you rely on historical stats.
Miami is 17-0 in it history advancing in the postseason when holding a 2-0 series lead.
Atlanta is 0-25 when down 2-0.
Miami turned a halftime deficit around Friday with a 31-16 third quarter to seize command in a reassertion of defensive dominance, after uncharacteristically giving up 39 points in the second quarter.
Then that 16-point late lead disappeared.
No individual heroics rescued Miami as when Butler had 45 points in Game 2, along with zero turnovers and zero fouls. No player had had a playoff stat line like that one since Dominique Wilkins in 1988. (A statue of Wilkins towers outside the Atlanta arena. It happens to be where that game-delaying “suspicious package” had been left.
Instead, the Heat’s depth and bench came to the fore, led by Tyler Herro’s 24 points off the bench, and Butler and Max Strus both adding 20. (Herro should win NBA Sixth Man of the Year; his fourth 20-point game off the bench in ther playoffs tied Ray Allen’s Heat record).
Coach Erik Spoelstra works his roster like a maestro does an orchestra.. He decided 19 games ago that Strus should replace Duncan Robinson in the starting lineup. Miami is 16-3 since.
Adebayo managed 13 points Friday and has only 28 in three games. More is needed offensively from the big man. Now Kyle Lowry, 36, has a hamstring injury, with test results due Saturday and his availability Sunday perhaps in doubt.
“We love that guy as our point guard,” said Butler of Lowry. “If he’s with us [Sunday], yippee-ki-yay. If he’s not, somebody else has to step in and do his job.”
But here’s the thing:
Atlanta was (and the past-tense is intentional, though a bit riskier now) always just a scheduled inconvenience more than a threat to the Heat.
For Miami this playoffs was never about the first round.
The aim is so much bigger, higher.
It was from the minute the Heat got swept by eventual champion Milwaukee in last year’s first round, just one season after reaching the NBA Finals-in-a-bubble before falling to LeBron’s Lakers.
It was as Miami spent this long regular season securing the overall No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, a stature that suggests -- against prevailing doubts and disrespect -- that the Heat should reach the Finals again.
And it was before this game as Butler, referring to where his team is and its intentions, said, “as we make this run.”
A run is not one series. The first series is just the start.
Unlike last year, drawing Giannis and the Bucks in the first round, Miami’s 2022 draw has been kinder.
Betting odds entering Friday right listed West powers Golden State (11-4) and Phoenix (16-5) as overall favorites, with Milwaukee (19-4) and Boston (7-1) fronting the East. Then came Miami at 9-1.
Well, the seedings pair Milwaukee and Boston in the same bracket, meaning, in the other half, Miami is aligned to likely face Philadelphia in the next round.
(Yes, I am still looking ahead, unabashedly and with no belief in jinxes).
In Philly the Heat would face a team with star Joel Embiid nursing a bothered right thumb.
In the East finals there might be a shot at revenge against Milwaukee, or the usual dogfight against rival Boston.
All delicious, what’s ahead. Maybe a little nerve-wracking, too?
Now all the Heat must do first is finish off Atlanta, an eventuality that history still would testify is beyond all reasonable doubt.
This story was originally published April 22, 2022 at 10:41 PM.
