How the Miami Dolphins can make history by going from 1-7 to NFL playoffs. No, seriously | Opinion
Can the Miami Dolphins be the first team ever to start a season 1-7 and make the NFL playoffs?
Yes.
Whoa. Wait. I said can they. Not will they.
The spoilsports in charge of ESPN’s Football Power Index put the likelihood of the now 3-7 Fins making the playoffs at 1.7 percent. Those odds are not great. But they are greater, for example, than the likelihood you will be killed by a meteorite while cashing a winning lottery ticket.
It’s all a matter of perspective, right? If 1.7 percent sounds like nothing, consider that 1.7 percent of the world’s population is greater than the number of people living in Mexico and Japan. So there you go.
Hey, I’m trying to be an optimist here. Work with me.
Until now the season has been a dumpster fire of negativity surrounding the Dolphins. The endless, debilitating Deshaun Watson drama. The regression on the field. Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries. All of it.
Let’s try on some optimism and at least see how it feels, yes?
I know what you’re thinking. Me daring to put a 3-7 team and the word playoffs in the same sentence conjures the postgame tirade of coach Jim Mora following as Colts loss in 2001:
“Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs!? You kidding me? Playoffs!?”
OK, fine. Two Dolphins wins in a row — including that astoundingly impressive 22-10 upset of the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night — might not have saved the season for Miami, but they have given it oxygen, and a glimmer of possibility.
“It’s spring-boarding us forward,” as excellent rookie safety Jevon Holland said after the Ravens win. “It’s giving us confidence when we need it.”
Though Miami would make history as the first 1-7 team to reach the postseason, there are precedents to remind it isn’t impossible. And the added game on the schedule, from 16 to 17 starting this year, increases that possibility if only mathematically.
The 2004 Carolina Panthers started 1-7 but would have made the playoffs at 8-8 if not for a three-point loss in their season finale. The 1970 Cincinnati Bengals turned a 1-6 start into an 8-6 finish and a playoff ticket.
Make no mistake: The Dolphins team we have seen most of this season has no shot at such a miracle finish. But the team we have seen lately, the team we saw Thursday night — that team has a chance.
There is a map to get there. Here it is:
▪ Remaining schedule — The next four games are at Jets, then home against Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Miami will be favored in at least three of them. The chances of winning all four and getting to 7-7 are plausible. The regular season ends tougher — at Saints and Titans, then home versus the Patriots — but the Fins by then might be on a high of six wins in a row.
▪ This season — Twelve of 16 AFC teams have at least four losses. It is looking like a 9-8 record might be enough for a wild-card spot. Win the next four to get to 7-7 and Miami would have put itself in a position to be playing meaningful games after Christmas.
▪ Tua staying healthy — For all those who doubted it (and still do), Tagovailoa has shown since his return from the rib injury, and again Thursday night, that he is QB1-worthy. Injury-proneness might be an issue, but skill level is not. The upgrade from Jacoby Brissett to Tagovailoa is stark. (And it is not nothing that Tagovailoa is working behind a so-so blocking line, with a negligible running and an oft-injured receiving corps).
▪ Reawakened defense — The defense, hugely disappointing through seven games, has returned to stellar 2020 form the past three games. The signs of improvement began to show in the loss to Buffalo and carried over into the two wins. The effort and performance in flummoxing Lamar Jackson on Thursday night was not less than one of the greatest defensive shows in franchise history.
That defensive uprising and the past two games have given the Dolphins a chance to make the balance of this season matter, and given Dolfans a reason to keep watching.
That might not seem like much. But from the depths of a turmoil-filled 1-7 start, even a little bit of hope can feel like a lot.
This story was originally published November 15, 2021 at 12:55 PM.
