It’s our 30th annual mock draft, and the Dolphins get lucky ... twice | Opinion
By the numbers, this is the NFL’s 86th draft, the Miami Dolphins’ 56th, and my 30th annual Miami Herald mock draft. (Does Hallmark make an anniversary card for that?) This also is the 48th draft since the Dolphins last won a Super Bowl, which is why the onus grows ever-heavier on Miami to hit big with its picks and finally end that ponderous drought.
This year the Dolphins are one of four teams with two first round picks, and if my 2021 mock is right, coach Brian Flores and Fins fans will be feeling quite giddy come late Thursday.
That is because I have Miami landing the draft’s top wide receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, with the sixth overall pick and getting the highest-ranked defensive end/edge rusher, Kwity Paye, with the 18th selection. Both might take some luck, as I explain below. I figure a fandom waiting 48 years for another parade is due some of that.
The past four years my mocks have featured 22 bull’s-eyes (exact player to exact team), including seven last year — one better than ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. That’s pretty good considering our mocking is a brief flurry of tea leaves and tarot cards, not the year-round cottage industry it is for the Kipers. Closest I get to film study is rewatching the “Wizard Of Oz.”
I simply cross-reference every team’s needs with best available players and let the darts fly. We do one mock draft only. We also do not assume any draft-night trades, although we mention what’s likely. My only guarantee is that, for the 30th straight year, I will correctly get every first-round pick in exact numerical order, 1 through 32.
Ready? Let’s rock. Let’s mock!
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson — The throwback hippie hair gives Trevor the look of somebody who might have been cast as a stoner in “Pineapple Express.” But he also has the look of a can’t-miss franchise quarterback, and he’s the reason Urban Meyer took the job.
2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU — The Planes need help everywhere, but trading Sam Darnold shouted out what the clear priority is. There are four first round-quality arms left, but all signs say NYJ is enamored with Wilson.
3. San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama — [Pick from Miami via Houston] You don’t spend big to trade up from 12 to three unless you’re very likely thinking QB. Question is, who? Coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch are said to love Jones, but rumors are others in war room are pushing Trey Lance.
4. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida — OK now the draft gets interesting for Dolphins fans. Atlanta is open to a trade. Might Miami move up to get Pitts? It’s likelier a QB-starved team trades up to here. If ATL stays put it could get Matt Ryan’s eventual replacement, but I say Falcons make Ryan happy by selecting draft’s most dynamic weapon to pair with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon — Close call and tough decision here. It will be very hard for Gals to pass on LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase and not reunite him with Joe Burrow. But in Sewell they get someone who will help keep Burrow upright and healthy his whole career. Dolphins got unlucky when Falcons took Pitts but catch a big break here.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: The draft will be live from Cleveland, although most first-round picks including Lawrence won’t be there and will be seen remotely. It still will mark a step toward normalcy after last year’s totally virtual draft. Too bad. I already miss seeing disinterested family dogs wandering in the background through coaches’ kitchens.
6. MIAMI DOLPHINS: JA’MARR CHASE, WR, LSU — [Pick from Philadelphia] Fins already have had a busy draft, yo-yo’ing from third to 12th to sixth with two major trades. They could do it yet again and trade up with Atlanta to get Pitts. I also hear whispers a trade-down with a QB-hungry team might be a possibility if Dolphins felt a top receiver would still be there. But in my scenario, no way Miami bypasses Chase, the draft’s No. 1 wide receiver, if he’s there. Also in this scenario, if Cincy were to snatch Chase (a real possibility), Fins would then have their choice of reuniting Tua Tagovailoa with either of his former Alabama teammates, DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle (and I would give Waddle the edge there). Clearly, Dolphins need to spend this top pick on a weapon for Tua, and Chase would be just that alongside DeVante Parker, Will Fuller and Mike Gesicki. Miami’s recent signing of veteran tackle D.J. Fluker was an indication Fins plan to resist the temptation to select Sewell even if he were to fall to them. We nailed Miami top-drafting Tagovailoa last year even as many other mocks thought otherwise. Let’s see if we’re right again.
7. Detroit Lions: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama — Motown brass acknowledged listening to offers from teams wishing to trade up. But if the Lions stay put and Sewell is gone, despite myriad needs on defense, the likelihood is a weapon for new QB Jared Goff.
8. Carolina Panthers: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama — Cats are an anything-goes wild card here. Might go QB despite having Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater. Might deal with a team needing a QB. Would grab Sewell in unlikely event he fell. Otherwise, while a wide receiver would tempt, corner is a bigger need and the son of the former Dolphin is this draft’s best.
9. Denver Broncos: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State — Lance is young and raw but with a tremendous ceiling, and Broncos have enough faith in Drew Lock to not hurry the rookie. If that faith in Lock is enough that they look elsewhere, keep an eye on Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons
10. Dallas Cowboys: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina — Corner is the Boys’ greatest need, and Horn (whose dad Joe enjoyed a long NFL career) is the best out there after Surtain. Also would not surprise if Dallas took tackle Rashawn Slater here. Dallas also may be a trade partner (right, Patriots?).
11. New York Giants: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama — Smith was recently photographed at a Knicks game wearing a Yankees hat. Hmm. Looks like he gets his wish then, although chances are the Heisman Trophy winner (whom the Dolphins really like) might not last this long. Biggies like Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, too.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: Dolphins’ annual draft watch party returns to Hard Rock Stadium with limited fans allowed Thursday night, after last year’s party was held virtually on team’s Facebook page. Party will feature a stage show with live commentary. Wild guess: The “independent” analysts paid by the team will LOVE Miami’s first round picks.
12. Philadelphia Eagles: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State — [From Miami via San Francisco] With the top receivers gone, Birds think defense and get a tackle machine at inside linebacker. Could also go cornerback if Surtain or Horn fall to them.
13. Los Angeles Chargers: Rashawn Slater, OT/G, Northwestern — Bolts’ top need is O-line help to keep Justin Herbert upright, and Slater is draft’s top-ranked blocker after Sewell.
14. Minnesota Vikings: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech — Vikes need an edge rusher, too, but offensive line is a more pressing need. (Thank you, says Dalvin Cook). They like USC guard/tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, too.
15. New England Patriots: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State — Damn Bill Belichick wins again. Pats might need to trade up to make this happen, but I think Belichick somehow gets his guy. Receiver a possibility here, too. So is a trade-down if no top QB is left.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech — Expect Zona to select the best available cornerback, and the way our first round is playing out, that’s Farley. He opted out of 2020 season, but NFL didn’t forget him.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: Rival Miami sports radio stations 560 The Joe and 790 The Ticket both will devote hours and hours to NFL Draft coverage Thursday night and throughout the weekend, unaware that anyone that interested in the draft will be watching it on TV.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG/T, USC — Vera-Tucker is a versatile guard who can play outside, giving Vegas options at an area of need. Raiders also will be tempted by Texas Christian’s Trevon Moehrig, the draft’s top safety.
18. MIAMI DOLPHINS: KWITY PAYE, DE, MICHIGAN — After scoring a toy for Tua with the sixth overall pick, the Fins turn to D and nab the draft’s top-rated edge rusher. Miami needs more heat on opposing QBs to balance a solid pass defense and Paye will bring it. Great story, too. Paye is Liberian but was born in a refugee camp in Guinea in the wake of the first Liberian Civil War before his family emigrated to the U.S. when he was an infant. If Paye is off the board, look for Fins to look hard in the backyard at Hurricanes edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, although his injury/concussion history might give pause. Wouldn’t be stunned if Fins reached for a running back here (Travis Etienne?), but neither would I bet on it.
19. Washington Football Team: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB — He’s former safety who is versatile and adept at blitzing — the draft’s highest-rated LB after Parsons. Washington’s greater need on the O-line lessened Tuesday when team reacquired OG Ereck Flowers from Dolphins.
20. Chicago Bears: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida — Will Chitown try to trade up and find their quarterback of the future. More likely they will take a target to help stopgap guy Andy Dalton. Could also go O-line here.
21. Indianapolis Colts: Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami — I’ll be surprised if Indy doesn’t go sack-shopping with an edge rusher here, and, with Paye off my board, Hurricane Jaelan is the guy. Phillips was top recruit in entire country in 2017, but injuries and concussions have sometimes gotten in the way. Great for UM last season, though.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: You may recall that in last year’s draft that was held virtually and included a salute to heath-care workers, the Giants blamed a technical glitch for inadvertently drafting New York pulmonologist Dr. Abe Fishman in the first round. Update: Dr. Fishman, after intercepting four passes as a rookie, has signed a three-year extension.
22. Tennessee Titans: Trevon Moehrig, S, Texas Christian — TCU’s guy is the one safety in this draft graded 1R, and Tenners have a need. Could also opt for a blocker or receiver (well, if Ryan Tannehill gets his way).
23. New York Jets: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern — [Pick from Seattle] A running back will tempt, but after taking a QB second overall, I see NYJ going D. Corner a big need, and Newsome is best left. Edge rush an option, too.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama — Rarely in any draft outside of the top five picks is there a strong consensus on one player to one team, but Harris to Pittsburgh seems to be that. Maybe O-line here as well. In other words, something to make life easier for aging Big Ben.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama — [Pick from L.A. Rams] Jax’s 4-3 defense cold use interior-line help, and Barmore is draft’s top-rated pure D-tackle. Need a tight end, too, but none after Pitts are close to 1R-quality.
26. Cleveland Browns: Zaven Collins, OLB/DE, Tulsa — Earthtones are set at the edge with Myles Garrett and the recent signing of Jadevon Clowney, now the uber-productive Collins fills a need at outside linebacker.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: The NFL’s first season was 1920, so this draft unofficially marks the start of the league’s 102nd year. Also notable from the year 1920: Prohibition begins. The Spanish Flu ends. America ratifies 19th Amendment allowing women to vote. Tom Brady completes rookie season.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Azeez Ojulari, OLB, Georgia — Crows need edge-rush help and Ojulari brings it. Could also target either line, or a best-available WR such as LSU’s Terrace Marshall.
28. New Orleans Saints: Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State — Dad was a really good NFL corner with 51 career picks, and Saints are banking on the bloodline at a position of need. Wide receiver another strong option here as N’Awlins navigates life after Drew Brees.
29. Green Bay Packers: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss — Last year the Pack drafted Aaron Rodgers’ (future) replacement, a perceived slap. This time they say, sorry, Aaron, by gifting him a receiver. If not, look for a corner or D-line help here.
30. Buffalo Bills: Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami — Buffs seek an edge rusher and can’t miss noticing the 6-7 Rousseau, who was phenomenal for the Canes in 2019 before opting out in ‘20. Penn State DE Jayson Oweh also fits here. So might a RB such as Travis Etienne.
31. Baltimore Ravens: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State — [Pick from Kansas City] Ravens just picked a pass rusher 27th and added this pick by trading star tackle Orlando Brown to Chiefs last week. Meet the man they will groom to replace him.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson — Champions have Ronald Jones Jr. and Leonard Fournette so RB isn’t a position of dire need, but Eteinne is too good to pass by. Besides, surrounding Tom Brady with weapons was a winning formula last year, so why stop? Happy Tom, happy team.
This story was originally published April 27, 2021 at 5:06 PM.
