It is the telling month. For Dolphins’ Tua, we begin to see if greatness is in his reach | Opinion
An apology is due in advance, just in case. I apologize to the jinx-believers out there. The superstitious. If I mention your team’s pitcher has a no-hitter through seven innings and some part of you truly thinks my saying it will ruin everything — well, sorry.
I’m saying it anyway:
Tua Tagovailoa has seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions in his first five career starts. He is only the second quarterback in the Super Bowl era (that’s more than 50 years) to throw at least one touchdown pass and have no interceptions through his first five starts.
Now the jinx alert: His 136 pass attempts without being picked off is nearing historic territory. Dak Prescott set the record with 176 passes sans pick to start a career. The previous mark of 162 belonged to Tom Brady.
The point: Tagovailoa, the fifth overall pick by the Miami Dolphins, is doing everything asked and has been everything advertised thus far.
His 99.4 passer rating is 11th among all quarterbacks, and ahead of guys such as Ben Roethlisberger, Brady, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Matt Ryan.
Also better than Ryan Fitzpatrick, whom the Fins benched to get to Tua.
Also better than Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, the other two high-drafted rookie quarterbacks against whom Tagovailoa will naturally always be compared.
None of this means Tagovailoa has been perfect or is a finished product. The yeah-buts include a 63.2 completion percentage that is lowish on the accuracy meter.
The larger point:
Though Tagovailoa has impressed, the proving has just begun. And now it elevates to a whole new level.
See, it shouldn’t be Burrow and Herbert who Tagovailoa is judged against.
Aim higher.
If Dolphins fans truly believe/hope Tagovailoa is the long-sought answer for real, the conduit to sustained winning and winning big, then aim higher they must.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
They are Tagovailoa’s competition now if a path back to the Super Bowl is how high Miami dares dream.
Which brings us to the next month that closes the NFL regular season as the 8-4 Dolphins try to not only reach the postseason but to win the franchise’s first playoff game in two decades, since December 30, 2000.
Tagovailoa must lead them there. Here is his gauntlet:
This Sunday — the Chiefs return to Hard Rock Stadium, where they won the Super Bowl in February as Mahomes affirmed his throne as the best quarterback going, bar none. Tagovailoa does not have to be better than Mahomes, but he does have to be his equal when required, in a shootout, in the red zone, in the fourth quarter. Kansas City is Miami’s AFC roadblock for the foreseeable future. The Fins do not reach a Super Bowl unless Brian Flores and Chan Gailey find a way to beat Mahomes. And that starts with the slender lefty quarterback wearing No. 1.
December 20 — the Patriots visit Miami. New England, the old nemesis. No Brady now, but still coach Bill Belichick. The Pats have surged of late and are fighting desperately for the playoffs. Fins lost to the Patriots early in the season, under Fitzpatrick. Tagovailoa beating them would signal a change in AFC East hierarchy, and more than symbolically.
December 26 — Miami travels to play the Las Vegas Raiders, another team fighting for the playoffs. Fions may be desperate, too, depending on the previous two results. It is the time of season when quarterbacks, especially rookies, are measured and see their reputations harden.
January 3 — At Buffalo. Dead of winter. Playoffs likely on the line. AFC East title may be there for the taking. By the look of this season, Allen and the Bills (who beat Miami early in the season) are the new division nemesis that the Pats used to be for so long.
That makes Allen the real competition and gauge for Tagovailoa, with Mahomes the ultimate one if Dolfan dreams dare get as big as reaching a Super Bowl again.
His first five starts have told us much about Tagoaviloa, almost all of it good.
His next four starts will tell us so much more.
They will tell us is he can find a way to beat the two quarterbacks he must.
They will tell us whether greatness is within his reach.
