NFL Week 6 picks: Dolphins-Stinkin’ Jets, another unbeaten loses and a winless team wins | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 6 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
JETS (0-5) at DOLPHINS (2-3)
Line: MIA by 9 1/2.
Cote’s pick: MIA 37-16.
TV: 4:05 p.m., CBS.
Strange to ask, but after playing Seattle tough and then last week’s exhilarating road rout over San Fran, are the Dolphins at risk of a letdown Sunday vs. the lowly Jets? The division rivalry says probably not, but rarely in this series have the Fins been such a favorite or NYJ been so awful. The Jets stink at just about everything. How does old friend Adam Gase still have a job? (Rhetorical question. He might not if Planes lose here). Now Le’Veon Bell is gone. Gase’s inability to get along with star players sounds like a bit of a job detriment. Bell also was available and ESPN reported he intended to sign with Buffalo, Kansas City or Miami; unsurprisingly he picked the Chiefs. Fins could have used him, obviously. Miami’s supposedly improved running game has been way disappointing. Even lacking balance, though, Fins’ offense still is averaging a decent 27.2 points per game. NFL has set five-week records for most TDs (453) and points (3,958) — no thanks to Jets’ league-worst offense, although NYJ’s equally bad defense probably deserves a little credit. Sam Darnold (shoulder) won’t play Sunday, but his regression and capable backup Joe Flacco make the QB change a push at worst for the Jets. Flacco is 6-0 in his career vs. Miami. But those six were with Baltimore, filet mignon to the Jets’ dog food. On the other side in this mis-matchup, Ryan Fitzpatrick should have another big game. Oh, and if Miami leads big late, might there even be a Tua Tagovailoa sighting for a series or so? This is the first time — the first game and situation — where I can see it as at least a possibility. Although with a bye on deck, a Week 8 first taste ‘o Tua may be likelier.
GAME OF THE WEEK
BROWNS (4-1) at STEELERS (4-0)
Line: PIT by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: PIT 34-24.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
It has been rare in our 30 years of NFL picks in the Herald to see Cleveland wandering into a Game of the Week. That this is the Browns’ best start since 1994 explains some of that. Even harder to believe Steelers haven’t been 4-0 since 1979! Earthtones have scored 150 points in their four consecutive wins, but this is a different challenge. Baker Mayfield (with sore ribs) faces an elite pass rush, and a Pitt run D that will make offensive balance tough to achieve. Like Ben Roethlisberger vs. a depleted Clevers secondary. Steelers have won 16 in a row at home over Browns by an average margin of 12.5 points. Browns have gotten good and closed the gap, but Pitts is still better.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
TEXANS (1-4) at TITANS (4-0)
Line: TEN by 3.
Cote’s pick: HOU 28-24.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
“AAAWWWK!” croons the high-flying Upset Bird. “Deshaun Watson! Deshaaawwwk Waawwk!” Titans coming in off very short week after playing Tuesday night, and this division rivalry is a back-and-forth thing with splits the past four years in row. Tennessee, 4-0 for first time since 2008, is due a hiccup. And three of Houston’s four losses have been by one score against a very tough schedule. That the home team is only favored by three despite the disparity in won-lost records — that’s telling. “Do tell,” nods U-Bird in agreement. “Watch Houston’s pass rush make it a tough day for Ryan Tannehaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 6:
@Colts (3-2, -8) over Bengals (1-3-1), 27-16: Indy’s defense is really solid, despite last week’s stumble vs. Browns, and Colts have won 13 of past 16 at home. Looks like an uncomfortable day for rookie Joe Burrow, and Nags will run on a bad Gals’ ground D to take pressure off Philip Rivers.
@Vikings (1-4, -4) over Falcons (0-5), 34-24: [COVID alert: Status of game was uncertain Thursday after a few Falcons tested positive and facility was closed]. Atlanta playing first game since firing coach Dan Quinn and its GM; interim Raheem Morris takes over. Both sides have a key offensive piece (Julio Jones, Dalvin Cook) iffy to play, but two pliable defenses should make for a shootout just the same. Minny has a pair of one-point losses to good teams (Titans, Seahawks). Vikes are better than the record and will show it here
@Patriots (2-2, -10) over Broncos (1-3), 24-16: Both teams expect their QBs back, with Drew Lock returning after two games out and Cam Newton activated off the COVID list. Pats’ pass D handling Lock should be the key. (Get it!?) NE has won five in a row in series, and Broncos have been a bad road team for a good while. That betting line, though.
@Giants (0-5, -3) over Washington (1-4), 24-20: I’m referring to the Giants as the Gnats until they win a game — and this looks like the week! NYG has been competitive in four of its five losses, especially the past two. Meaning they’re slightly less awful than the No Names. Gnats have won three straight in series, while defrocked Washington is on a 1-10 skid in division games.
Ravens (4-1, -7 1/2) over @Eagles (1-3-1), 27-20: Bird Bowl finds Eagles the biggest home dog they have been in 14 years. Philly is a dangerous bad team, but also has a league-worst 11 turnovers and now faces a havoc-wreaking Crows defense. It’s a risk, but we will hunch Carson Wentz keeps the picks to one max and the Eagles cover.
@Panthers (3-2, -2) over Bears (4-1), 20-17: Not sure how Bears are 4-1 with this offense. Chicago has extra rest after playing last Thursday, which gives us some pause. But Carolina has won three straight with much-improved D and Miami’s own Teddy Bridgewater (Northwestern High) is playing great.
Lions (1-3, -3) over @Jaguars (1-4), 31-23: Two bad defenses that can’t stop anybody, so I’ll give the edge to Matthew Stafford and his slightly better offense. An upset would not surprise in this duel of unreliable teams, but Lions also have the edge in rest and prep time coming off a bye week.
Packers (4-0, even) over @Buccaneers (3-2), 34-26: It’s Old G.O.A.T.s on parade in the Battle of the Bays! Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady head-to-head for only the third time (it’s 1-1) gives this one Game of the Week heft. It being a rare pick-’em game also adds interest. T-Bay is rested after playing last Thursday; G-Bay is more rested coming off a bye. Rodgers should have top WR Davante Adams back. That’s huge because Aaron Jones faces a tough Bucs run D. Tampa has won seven of past nine at home vs. Cheesers, but Green Bay averages a league-best 38 points. Hard not to start there on a straight-up bet.
Rams (4-1, -3 1/2) over @49ers (2-3), 23-20: Niners have an upset shot; they will have QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) back and will come out fighting at home on Sunday night stage after being embarrassed in Miami last week. But this is a bad matchup for Garo staying healthy: A porous Frans O-line vs. Aaron Donald and a pass rush that already has 20 sacks. Still, give us fired-up 49ers with that extra half point on the bet line.
Chiefs (4-1, -3 1/2) over @Bills (4-1), 31-20: Monday night’s early game is another matchup with top-of-the-marquee, Game of the Week heft, although both teams absorbing their first loss last week took some shine off. We know that Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen can put up big points. But know, too: Buffalo’s oversold defense has been really disappointing. If Mahomes can get a cleaner pocket than he had last week, Chiefs should roll.
@Cowboys (2-3, +2) over Cardinals (3-2), 30-27: Upset! (“Aawwk!”) Dallas was favored by three in Monday’s late game before Dak Prescott’s season-ending ankle injury caused the line to swing five points. But here’s the thing. Andy Dalton is a capable backup as he showed last week, and Zona missing top sackman Chandler Jones to a biceps injury is a big loss and will make Dalton’s life easier. Plus, Dallas’ defense can’t possibly be this awful every week ... can it?
Byes:
Chargers (1-4) — All four Bolts losses including Saints last week have been by one score. Next: Vs. Jaguars.
Raiders (3-2) — Week off for Team Gruden the reward for big upset of Chiefs. Next: vs. Tom’s Bucs.
Saints (3-2) — Don’t write off Brees yet. N’Awlins has scored 65 in winning two straight. Next: Vs. Panthers.
Seahawks (5-0) — Chef Russ edged Vikes to stay perfect, but Seattle is only half-great. Defense has allowed most yards through five games of any team since 1950. Legion of Boom to Legion of Bust?
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
We finished a solid 10-4 overall and an OK 7-7 against the spread in Week 5 — thanks to a big finish in the three prime-time games that ended the schedule. Sunday night we bull’s-eyed Seahawks winning but Vikings covering; Monday night we rightly had Saints winning but Chargers covering; and Tuesday night we nailed our Upset of the Week with Titans (+8 1/2) beating Bills outright. (“Aaawwwk!” ). Also called Panthers’ miniupset win in Atlanta, and had Dolphins with points vs. San Fran. Glad you’re along for the ride on our 30th season of picks in the Herald. Time to own Week 6! [Note: No Thursday night game on this week’s schedule].
Week 5: 10-4, .714 overall; 7-7, .500 vs. spread.
Season: 49-27-1, .645 overall; 39-36-2, .520 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
This story was originally published October 15, 2020 at 1:43 PM.
