Why Dolphins are sticking with Tagovailoa, despite risk, in Miami Herald’s 29th mock draft | Opinion
Generations of Miami Dolphins fans have grown up, and in many cases grown old, waiting for this. If that is hyperbole, it isn’t by much. With three first round picks for the first time in franchise history and a league-leading 14 selections overall, this week’s NFL Draft finds the Fins in the national spotlight in a way they haven’t been since a young Dan Marino was leading the team to its most recent Super Bowl.
That was after the 1984 season.
I’m not counting Bullygate or that time the offensive line coach showed up in a video snorting coke off his desk. I mean a good spotlight. I mean a chance to start winning again and get back to a time when the playoffs were expected every year.
I mean this club drafting its first true franchise quarterback since Marino in 1983.
His name is Tuanigamanuolepoia Tagovailoa. Save time. Call him Tua.
I believe NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, from the basement of his New York home during this coronavirus draft, will call his name for the Dolphins with the fifth overall pick Thursday night, or perhaps with the third after a small trade-up.
More later on why Miami should and I think will draft Tagovailoa despite the durability concerns.
This is the NFL’s 84th draft and the league’s first during a stay-at-home pandemic; the Dolphins’ 55th draft, and my 29th annual official Miami Herald mock draft.
The past three years my mocks have featured 15 bull’s-eyes (exact player to exact team), not bad considering our mocking is a two-day flurry involving tarot cards and tea leaves, a glorified guessfest, not a year-round industry like it is for Mel Kiper Jr. and that ilk. Heck, my idea of film study is watching old Hitchcock movies.
I simply cross reference every team’s needs with best available players and let the darts fly. We do one mock draft and one only, and do not pretend to foretell draft-day trades. All I guarantee is that, for the 29th straight year, I will correctly get every first-round pick in exact numerical order, 1 through 32.
Let’s go!
1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU — Cincy last won a playoff game in 1990. Last had the No. 1 overall pick in 2003. And you honestly thought they might trade down and not take the draft’s top quarterback!?
2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, DE, Ohio State — Skins need blocking help for Dwayne Haskins but won’t pass on the draft’s highest-graded player (95 via Scouts Inc.) and top sack man.
3. Detroit Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State — Top cover corner an easy choice, but pretty likely Lions may trade down to Dolphins at 5 or Chargers at 6 — whichever is more determined to get their quarterback.
4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson — Another possible trade partner for Fins or Bolts. Tough to read the mind of wacky GM Dave Gettleman, though. An offensive tackle here would not surprise.
5. MIAMI DOLPHINS: TUA TAGOVAILOA, QB, ALABAMA — Now it gets interesting. Gets real, fast. There are plenty who think Miami will be running scared from Tua’s November hip surgery and injury history. That’s why more and more mock draftniks are taking the easy route, playing it safe and calling Justin Herbert to Miami. Not me! Tua-to-Miami suddenly is couched as a controversial pick, but you don’t win big by playing scared, and I believe the Dolphins brain trust will be all in and willing to take the risk to see the reward. Tua has a clean bill of health from all indications, and the Dolphins, with Ryan Fitzpatrick, will not need to rush the rookie. Make no mistake: Tua is better than Herbert, with a significantly higher prospect grade, 93 to 89, and unparalleled accuracy. Last time the Dolphins had a quarterback decision and choice of this magnitude was in 2006, and they chose Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees. That cannot happen again. Well, it could. But it better not!
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: Glitches we want to see in Thursday night’s virtual first Round: 1. Roger Goodell’s barking Labradoodle continually interrupting his announcements; 2. Giants GM Dave Gettleman inadvertently revealing team’s entre draft plan by forgetting to use the mute button; and 3. The first player caught celebrating his selection with a raucous party in a living room filled with 58 friends.
6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon — With Philip Rivers gone to Indy in free agency and Tyrod Taylor a stopgap guy, LAC needs it quarterback of the future and hopes this Duck turns out mighty.
7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn — Defense-thinking Cats also covet Okudah and Simmons if either falls, but are likelier to get the draft’s top-graded DT in Brown.
8. Arizona Cardinals: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama — Nick Saban can turn out some pros, and Cardbirds need a protector for young QB Kyler Murray. Zona also might consider Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs here.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida — Former Gator is only consensus first-round-grade corner after Okudah, and Jags will keep him local. Unless Gardner Minshew talks ‘em into WR Jerry Jeudy?
10. Cleveland Browns: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville — Baker Mayfield is feeling safer already as Earthtones choose the 6-7 ½, 360-pound Becton over the (relatively) more pint-sized OTs Andrew Thomas and Tristan Wirfs.
11. New York Jets: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama — Sam Darnold needs a new toy. Really like this position for Planes, but they will also be tempted by Jeudy’s Tide teammate Henry Ruggs III and by Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: The Dolphins’ annual draft watch party will also be done remotely this year, via the team’s Facebook page. This year’s theme: ‘Celebrating Our 47th Draft Since the Team’s Last Super Bowl Win!’
12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma — They love the CB Henderson if he falls and wouldn’t rule out splash-leaning Vegas with a QB here (Jordan Love?). But safer play is a weapon for Derek Carr/Marcus Mariota.
13. San Francisco 49ers: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama — Pick is via trade, from Colts. Third wideout in a row taken. But Niners — with no selections in rounds 2 through 4 — might be looking to trade down to gain additional picks.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia — Why? Because new Old G.O.A.T. Tom Brady will need an extra second or two in the pocket while Mike Evans and Chris Godwin run all of those deep routes.
15. Denver Broncos: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU — Broncos’ offense needs some pop, and, after a run on wideouts, this uberproductive slot receiver looks like the best pass catcher still on the board.
16. Atlanta Falcons: K’Lavon Chaisson, OLB, LSU — Could go cornerback here, but Chaisson, the draft’s second-best edge rusher after second overall pick Young, will be too tempting to pass up.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: Rival Miami sports stations 560 The Joe and 790 The Ticket continue to broadcast hours and hours of draft coverage, unaware that nobody is listening because everyone is watching TV to hear piped-in booing of Goodell and to see if hackers sabotage the virtual draft by splicing in a porn video.
17. Dallas Cowboys : Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama — Boys would love Gators’ Henderson if he falls but instead land draft’s only 1R-grade safety — a player Miami would seriously consider at 18 if he’s there.
18. MIAMI DOLPHINS: TRISTAN WIRFS, OT, IOWA — This second of Miami’s three first-round picks came via the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade to the Steelers. An edge rusher might tempt here, although Miami hit that area hard in free agency. Keep an eye on DT Javon Kinlaw here as well. But when your O-line led the NFL in most sacks allowed in 2019 and you just drafted a rookie quarterback you need to keep upright and healthy, you better be thinking blocking front at this spot. And Wirfs is the highest-rated lineman left — one they would be lucky to have last this long.
19. Las Vegas Raiders: Jordan Love, QB Utah State — Pick is from Bears. Raiders targeted WR need with earlier pick, so now they get a splash pick for their first year in Vegas. Tells you neither Derek Carr nor Marcus Mariota is the long-range future.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State — Pick is from Rams. Jax lassoed a cornerback with earlier selection, so go offense here. If Gardner Minshew really is their guy, he will need all the help he can get.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson — A clear, urgent position need for the Birds, and Higgins is last 1R-quality guy left. A trade up for a better choice would not shock.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: The first round is to include tributes to front-line health care workers battling the COVID-19 virus. Due to an inadvertent technical glitch, the Giants’ first-round selection, fourth overall, is New York pulmonologist Dr. Abe Fishman.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama — Pick is from Bills. Vikes would love a receiver here to augment Adam Thielen but that cupboard has grown bare. So they target another biggest need with Stefon’s kid bro.
23. New England Patriots: A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa — What will Bill Belichick do as he confronts life with no Tom Brady and with myriad holes on his roster? Is he really going with Jarrett Stidham/Brian Hoyer at QB!? Saw one mock draft had him trading up to 13th for Tagovailoa. Love would entice if he fell to here. But Pats took too many free agency hits on defense not to address that side of the ball first.
24. New Orleans Saints: Patrick Queen, ILB, LSU — N’Awlins’ needs start with defense, and, with no premier corners left, Saints select the draft’s No. 1-rated pure inside linebacker.
25. Minnesota Vikings: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State — After going cornerback a few picks earlier, Vikes might consider a receiver here. But with slim pickings there, Gross-Matos fills an edge-rush need.
26. MIAMI DOLPHINS: D’ANDRE SWIFT, RB, GEORGIA – Miami’s third and last first round pick is via Houston in the Laremy Tunsil trade. Swift is a mere 5-8 but is this draft’s only real first-round-grade running back, and Fins need the help. Swift should immediately challenge Jordan Howard, signed in free agency, for the featured role. A safety would not surprise here. Another offensive lineman would not, either.
(*) Super Bonus Draft Fact: This draft unofficially marks the start of the NFL’s 101st year. Stars of that first season in 1920 included Red Grange, Jim Thorpe and a rookie named Tom Brady.
27. Seattle Seahawks: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina — Interior D-line is not Hawks’ biggest need, but Kinlaw’s unexpected drop makes him a super value here. Seattle also will take a look at C/G Cesar Ruiz, whom Dolphins also like.
28. Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Murray, ILB, Oklahoma — Crows could opt for offensive line help here, but linebacker is a larger need, and Murray is the top-graded player left on the board.
29. Tennessee Titans: Zack Baun, OLB, Wisconsin — Baun has been all over the mock draft map from mid-first round to second, but Titans need edge-rush help and everybody higher rated is long gone.
30. Green Bay Packers: Michael Pittman, WR, USC — Packers (or should I say Aaron Rodgers) is desperate for receiver help to augment Davante Adams, and Pittman is a big 6-4 target to enhance Rodgers’ late-stage career.
31. San Francisco 49ers: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson — Niners went receiver earlier in round. Terrell might be a reach here, but SF needs CB help beyond aging Richard Sherman. A trade down out of round would not surprise.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin — Super Bowl champions seek a smidgen of offensive balance for Patrick Mahomes, and bring in the Badgers’ superproductive Taylor.
This story was originally published April 21, 2020 at 3:21 PM.
