The new pie chart of QB possibilities for a Dolphins franchise that better get it right | Opinion
The snake-bit Miami Dolphins have been among league leaders in unlucky for 20 years, augmented by a sad parade of bad decisions and ill-fated coaching hires. Now — even as the Fins have the most picks including three in the first round and fans dare dip a toe into the optimism pool — the upcoming NFL Draft is somehow the latest example of how “Can’t Catch A Break” should be this franchise’s official motto.
Think about it.
1. They spend all last season in deftly orchestrated “Tanking for Tua” mode, trading their best players to accumulate a stockpile of draft picks while losing enough to accrue the No. 5 overall pick. Brilliant!
Except the Cincinnati Bengals out-tank the Dolphins, get the No. 1 pick and the rights to draft grand prize quarterback Joe Burrow of LSU.
2. Miami still has a great chance to draft the originally coveted Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama. OK, good!
Except he sustains a hip injury late in his college career, the most serious but hardly the only issue that makes some wonder warily about his health and durability.
3. Tagovailoa appears fit and ready to go as the draft nears. The player’s doctor says he is “extremely pleased.” The agent says, “Tua is fully cleared and ready to compete without any restrictions.” Tua himself: “I’m 100 percent right now.” Great. What a relief!
Except the coronavirus/COVID-19 threat that has changed everything these days prevents teams from personally visiting with and giving team physicals to prospective players in advance of the April 23-25 draft being held in Las Vegas with no fans; thus Miami must trust what others are saying and videos of Tua throwing.
So, yes, to your list of things that have made the Dolphins snake-bit, you may now add: Global pandemic.
The very idea of still holding the draft as scheduled, not at one location but with teams selecting remotely video video, has been controversial. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported, “There are certain coaches and front-office staffers reluctant to have their IT employees in their homes, and vice versa.,”
Assuming the draft is not postponed, Miami’s intentions for the fifth pick the night of April 23 cannot be known. Heck, maybe the Dolphins themselves are not sure because of the lingering uncertainty over Tagovailoa. Media leaks cannot be trusted because of course teams don’t want other teams to know how they are leaning.
That’s why we are all over the map with what the Dolphins supposedly are thinking. There have been reports they want to trade up to No. 1 and snag Burrow. That they still like Tagovailoa. That they are now leaning to Justin Herbert of Oregon. That they really like Jordan Love of Utah State.
In other words, nobody can really be sure about anything until we know what team owner Stephen Ross, general manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores are really sure about.
Meantime, now less than two weeks from D-Day, we sift through all of the latest scouts’ opinions and experts’ mock drafts and tea leaves to bring you our own Pie Chart of Possibilities:
57 percent: Tua Tagovailoa — Just more than half of our pie goes to the original target, with the presumption (still a big if) that Miami trusts the prevailing medical opinion enough to bet its franchise future on it.
33 percent: Justin Herbert — This option gobbles up a sizable third of or our pie because Herbert will be a quality, available fallback if the feet get cold about Tagovailoa. Either player sitting and watching his rookie year — Tagovailoa as a health caution or Herbert because he wasn’t ready — would be no big deal for Miami, since capable veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick will be back.
6 percent: Joe Burrow — A sliver of the pie. I know it’s exciting to hear the Dolphins “want” to move up and get Burrow, but A) there has been zero indication Cincy is interested in trading down, and B) it would be a dubious risk for Miami, with so many needs, to start trading the first-round picks it has suffered so much to acquire.
4 percent: The crazy wild cards — This tiniest sliver is where you find Miami stunning the entire league by not taking a quarterback with its first pick and maybe drafting another position, or trading down, or trying to get a QB later, or sticking with Fitzpatrick another year and passing on its passer search until 2021.
All that’s clear is Miami must hit big in this draft to augment a few impressive gains made in the free-spending free agency period.
The Fins’ recent draft history when the pressure is on has not been great. Since the club’s last playoff win in the 2000 season, Miami has had previous three top-five picks with less-than-stellar results:
.In 2005 they selected running back Ronnie Brown, who was OK to pretty good but not a difference-maker.. Aaron Rodgers went later in the first round.
In 2008 they chose tackle Jake Long over quarterback Matt Ryan. Long was good before an injury cut short his career; Ryan is still playing, and well.
Then in 2013 they traded up (!) for defensive end Dion Jordan, arguably the most monumental draft bust in franchise history.
Better get it right this time, Dolphins.
No pressure or anything, just the ghosts of perfection and the towering shadows of Don Shula and Dan Marino.
Just a loyal legion of starving fans who’ve been waiting decades for a hint of new glory days — and waiting long enough.
This story was originally published April 9, 2020 at 11:38 AM.
