Dolphins-Patriots, playoff-deciding top games and big upsets: Our NFL Week 17 picks | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 17 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
DOLPHINS (4-11) at PATRIOTS (12-3)
Line: NE by 16.
Cote’s pick: NE 31-13.
It’s all division games, all on Sunday, as NFL’s 2019 regular season crescendos with Week 17 determining the final two of 12 playoff spots. Stakes are minimal in Dolphins’ finale, but there are some, at least. Patriots must win (or hope for unlikely Chiefs loss) to secure No. 2 AFC seed and first-round bye. Can Miami and expatriate/ex-Patriot Brian Flores play spoiler vs. nemesis Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at cold and cloudy Foxborough? Um, well, no. Sorry. Fins haven’t won at New England in 11 years, and Patriots have won 22 of past 23 at home overall. Pats won 43-0 in September, back when we thought Miami might be historically bad, maybe 0-16 bound. Competitiveness and even credibility ensued, but for Fins the Pats’ end zone will still feel miles away against a majorly great defense.
GAME OF THE WEEK
49ERS (12-3) at SEAHAWKS (11-4)
Line: SF by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: SEA 24-23.
Sunday Night Football gets a great one to wrap up King Sport’s 100th regular season. San Fran by winning clinches No. 1 seed but by losing tumbles all the way down to a wild-card spot and playoff-opening road game. Seattle, presently in wild-card slot, would take division with win — and could earn bye (if Packers lose) or even No. 1 seed (if Pack and Saints both lose). Give us Russell Wilson and the home field in an upset. I get the point spread. I know ‘Hawks are depleted (it’s why Marshawn Lynch was hauled out of mothballs). But Seattle has spell on Niners — 11-1 series run — and I’m hunching more of that magic.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
TITANS (8-7) at TEXANS (10-5)
Line: TEN by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: HOU 27-23.
“AAAWWWK!” shrills the Upset Bird. “Sorry, Ryan Tannehaawwk!” The Titans and Ryan Tannehaawwk I mean Tannehill make the playoffs with a win here or if Pittsburgh and Indy both lose. Texans have No. 4 seed sewn up but could climb to No. 3 with win if Chiefs lose. Stakes are more dramatic for Tennessee, but I still lean Houston, with the home field and with Deshaun Watson. “Major concurrence,” nods U-Bird. “Deshaun Waaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 17:
@Bills (10-5, -1 1/2) over Jets (6-9), 19-10: Buffs, enjoying best season in 20 years, are locked into No. 5 seed so have nothing to play for here except a little tailwind entering playoffs. That means guys like QB Josh Allen (who’ll start) might not play much — why the bet-line is so small. Still like Bills’ big D over a Planes squad that is 1-6 on road and on a 2-10 skid within AFC East.
@Bengals (1-14, +2 1/2) over Browns (6-9), 24-20: Upset! Cincy has clinched overall No. 1 draft pick and so has no reason to lose. So why not end with a win at home? ‘Gals have some fight left, as Dolphins saw in fourth quarter last week. And they’ll run on Cleveland.
Packers (12-3, -12 1/2) over @Lions (3-11-1), 30-10: Lions are limping to first tee with eight straight losses, while Gee Bees secure no worse than No. 2 seed and bye with win, and could still reach top spot with win if 49ers lose Monday. Aaron Rodgers will eat up Motown’s secondary.
@Chiefs (11-4, -9) over Chargers (5-10), 28-16: Philip Rivers (right thumb) is hurting, and a turnover machine even when healthy, and KC’s defense has been really good the past month-plus. Chiefs get No. 2 seed/bye with a win or a Patriots loss. In other words, they need to win this.
@Vikings (10-5, -1) over Bears (7-8), 20-16: Minnesota is locked into No. 6 seed no matter what happens here, so Kirk Cousins might not play much and Dalvin Cook probably won’t at all. Hence the near-pick ‘em spread. Still like Purples, at home, to avoid entering postseason lugging yoke of two straight L’s.
Falcons (6-9, +1) over @Buccaneers (7-8), 27-24: Mini-upset! Atlanta has won three in a row and five of past seven overall. Falcons also have won seven of past 10 trips to Tampa. Jameis Winston is hobbled (thumb, knee) and will be missing one and likely both of his Pro Bowl wideouts.
Saints (12-3, -13) over @Panthers (5-10), 38-12: Saints’ Michael Thomas broke season record for most catches and Cats’ Christian McCaffrey the mark for most by running back. N’Awlins must win to be in play for No. 2 seed and bye, and outside shot at No. 1. So Drew Brees will be going all out against reeling Carolina team that’s dropped seven straight.
@Cowboys (7-8, -11) over Redskins (3-12), 24-16: Sad Dallas must win and have Philly lose at Giants to luck into NFC East crown and playoffs. Probably too late for Jason Garrett either way. Dwayne Haskins (ankle) is iffy for Skins, who clinch second overall draft pick with loss.
@Broncos (6-9, -3 1/2) over Raiders (7-8), 19-17: Soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders can sneak into playoffs with win here if Houston, Baltimore and Indy all win. Still lean Denver at home, with Broncos 3-1 behind Drew Lock. But chance Oaks against spread.
@Rams (8-7, -7) over Cardinals (5-9-1), 27-17: Rams, eliminated, will be best team not in playoffs and out to prove it, while Cardbirds may be without QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) or see him limited. LAR has beaten ‘Zona five in row — including 34-7 on Dec. 1.
Eagles (8-7, -4 1/2) over @Giants (4-11), 27-20: Birds clinch division and playoffs with win — or if Dallas loses. With games concurrent and Cowboys favored, Philly will play this as must-win. TE Zach Ertz (ribs) is iffy, but Phils have won 10 of past 12 trips to NYG, and Biggies are on 4-13 skid in division.
Colts (7-8, -3 1/2) over @Jaguars (5-10), 21-16: Jax has won four straight at home in series, but I like Indy’s defense against a banged up Gardner Minshew. Especially with Leonard Fourette also iffy to play. Also like Nags to run on bad Jags ground D.
@Ravens (13-2, +2) over Steelers (8-7), 20-17: Upset! Wait. Upset? Betting line looks crazy until you factor that Baltimore has locked up No. 1 seed and will sit prominent starters including MVP-headed QB Lamar Jackson. And that this is must-win for Pittsburgh, which sneaks into playoffs by winning if Titans lose at Houston. Still lean Crows and that massive running game at home even with Robert Griffin III piloting. Steelers are banged-up and on a 3-7 skid on the road, and Devlin (Duck) Hodges has thrown six picks in past two games.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Enjoyed a buoyant penultimate week to our regular season at 11-5 straight-up and 9-6-1 against the spread, with Texans winning by three points the push for the tie. We nailed our Upset of the Week with Packers winning at Minnesota (”Aawwk!”), hit another mini-upset with Dolphins beating Cincy, and had a pair of ‘dogs covering with Rams and Cardinals. Are we ready for a big finish heading into the playoffs? Saddle up!
Overall; Vs. spread
Week 16 — 11-5, .688; 9-6-1, .600
Season — 159-80-1, .665; 122-112-4, .521
Final 2018 — 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582
