There’s lots of teams fighting for playoffs. Plus Dolphins-Giants. Our NFL Week 15 picks | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 15 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
DOLPHINS (3-10) at GIANTS (2-11)
Line: NYG by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: NYG 27-24.
Teams that are a combined 5-21 make for a dreadful matchup seeking a spark. Here it is: Eli Manning’s first home start since Week 2, and likely the next to last of his long Giants career. Emotions should be high as NYG fans cheer Eli (until his first interception, when they boo him). I mentioned dreadful matchup? It’s the only one of Week 15 with both teams mathematically out of playoff contention. Fins are on a 1-12 skid on the road. Biggies have lost an NFL-high nine games in a row. A Miami upset would not surprise, but Ryan Fitzpatrick, already with little run support, will be further depleted if DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson both are out with concussions as expected. That, the Eli bump and Miami’s road woes are enough to tilt this pick, although — like a shoplifter hightailing it from a convenience store — I’ll put that dangling half point on the bet-line in my pocket and take Fins to cover.
GAME OF THE WEEK
BILLS (9-4) at STEELERS (8-5)
Line: PIT by 1 1/2.
Cote’s pick: PIT 19-17.
Cantankerousness filled the GOTW committee meeting this week, with support for Texans-Titans, Rams-Cowboys and even the Oakland farewell. We sided with this Sunday prime-time duel between likely AFC playoff teams in an expected defensive slugfest. Buffalo would clinch postseason, only its second since 1999, with win. (Quick aside: Steelers brothers Trey and Terrell Edmunds face Bills’ Tremaine Edmunds — first time since 1927 three bros have been on field in same NFL game. They’re sons of Ferrell Edmunds, Dolphins tight end from 1988 to 1992). Pittsburgh expects to have WR Juju Smith-Schuster and RB James Conner back. Buffalo has beaten only one team with winning record, and I see Steelers’ defense, at home, showing up strong.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
BUCCANEERS (6-7) at LIONS (3-9-1)
Line: TB by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: DET 23-21.
“AAAWWWK!” shrills the Upset Bird. “Detroiaaawwwk!” Lions have dropped six in a row but played so many close games they’re overdue to win one. And here comes Tampa, with mistake machine Jameis Winston (23 picks) playing with a thumb so sore he was throwing only a tennis ball at Thursday’s practice. And he’ll very likely be missing WR Mike Evans. Hunch Motown parlays Bucs turnovers into home-dog W. “Lions hitchhike to victory with Winston’s thumb,” notes a smirking U-Bird. “Hitchhaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 15:
Patriots (10-3, -10) over @Bengals (1-12), 24-16: The notoriety undercutting New England’s excellence reappears with latest tempest over club video crew “inadvertently” (wink, wink) taping Cincy sideline. First thought? It’s a new, ultimate definition of desperate: Feeling you must cheat to beat the Bengals. Patriots and struggling Tom Brady have lost two in a row but clinch playoffs with win. Brady needs three TD passes to tie Peyton Manning’s career record of 539, a tall task these days for Teetering Tom. It’s defense to the rescue again for Pats.
@Packers (10-3, -5) over Bears (7-6), 27-21: Vintage rivals’ 200th all-time meeting finds Gee Bees the NFC’s No. 2 seed and Chitown fighting for wild card. Pack clinch playoffs with win if Rams lose. Aaron Rodgers barely beat Washington last week but Cheesers have topped Bears in nine of past 11 Lambeau meetings and should again.
@Titans (8-5, -3) over Texans (8-5), 31-23: Our Game of the Week first alternate is battle for AFC South lead. Hot Titans have won four straight, led by Derrick Henry’s 599 rushing yards in that span. Team is 6-1 under Ryan Tannehill. He has 75 percent completions and 130-plus rating in three straight games, last done in NFL in 2011. Where was that guy in Miami!?
@Chiefs (9-4, -10) over Broncos (5-8), 24-17: Has John Elway finally found his QB? Denver has won two in a row behind rookie Drew Lock, but he faces toughest test at Arrowhead vs. improving Chiefs D. K.C. has clinched division but jockeys for playoff seeding. A sore hand isn’t stopping Patrick Mahomes, who will pilot Chiefs’ ninth straight win in rivalry.
Eagles (6-7, -4 1/2) over @Redskins (3-10), 23-16: Washington has been credible the past few weeks despite struggling Dwayne Haskins, who now loses RB Derrius Guice, so D is Skins’ hope here. Eagles have won five in row in series by combined 67 points, and Washers have dropped seven straight in division.
Seahawks (10-3, -6) over @Panthers (5-8), 34-17: Seattle clinches playoffs with win if Rams lose. Seahawks have beaten Cats seven of past nine meetings, and Carolina enters on desultory five-game tailspin. Even defrocked fantasy god Christian McCaffrey has been pretty ordinary the past four games.
@Raiders (6-7, -6 1/2) over Jaguars (4-9), 35-13: I’m not big on impact of emotion in NFL, but Oakland’s final home game ever before next year’s move to Vegas means something. I know it does to Jon Gruden. His team has been awful past few weeks but will rise up to put on big show against a reeling Jags squad that has packed it in. Farewell, Black Hole.
Browns (6-7, -2) over @Cardinals (3-9-1), 27-24: It’s Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray in duel of past two Heisman winners and No. 1 overall picks. Which concludes the interesting portion of this matchup. Browns still in playoff hunt but must win out and pray. Upset shot is high. Clevers bad on road, but Zona on 2-12-1 skid at home. Somebody’s gotta win ... right?
@Chargers (5-8, +2 1/2) over Vikings (9-4), 24-20: Upset! Bolts well positioned as home dogs in spoiler role, capable of beating better teams (including this one) as long as Philip Rivers limits turnovers. Minnesota is great at home but far less (3-4) on road, and Chargers are on a 7-3 run straight up as underdogs.
@Cowboys (6-7, +1) over Rams (8-5), 27-23: Upset! Well, sort of. Betting line swung four points after L.A. had a second straight impressive win last week while Dallas endured third straight loss. Desperation is unreliable motivation, and Jerry’s World has been no safe haven, with Boys only 3-3 at home. But Dallas is much better than it has shown, and overdue a statement performance. Betting it’s here.
@49ers (11-2, -11 1/2) over Falcons (4-9), 27-19: San Fran clinches playoffs with win or loss by Rams, and still angles for No. 1 NFC seed. But Frans also face letdown after that epic 48-46 win in New Orleans. Niners on a 12-2 run at home vs. ATL, but Matt Ryan’s Falcons have come around since that 1-7 start and should keep it inside the bet line.
@Saints (10-3, -8) over Colts (6-7), 34-16: Monday nighter is rematch of 2009-season Super Bowl, the last played in Miami. Saints already have clinched division but vie for top seed and bye. Drew Brees needs two TD passes to tie and three to surpass Peyton Manning’s record of 539 — and I like his chances against beatable Colts secondary. Jacoby Brissett and Indy have struggled since 5-2 start and seem to not have much left.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Went a decent 10-6 straight up last week but a season-worst 5-9-2 against the spread (with Vikings and Bucs pushing for the ties). Had dogs Dolphins and Giants covering and nice pick with Rams over Seahawks, but not much else went right. Misfired badly on our Upset of the Week (Raiders-Titans) and got unlucky missing two games ATS by one point. Enough crying. Still a solid season. Now let’s bring it home strong! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Ravens (-15 1/2) over Jets, 34-7. Find the full predix capsule here].
Overall; Vs. spread
Week 14 — 10-6, .625; 5-9-2, .357
Season — 139-68-1, .672; 107-97-2, .525
Final 2018 — 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582
