Dolphins-Jets, marquee matchups, big upsets — here come the NFL Week 14 picks | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 14 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
DOLPHINS (3-9) at JETS (4-8)
Line: NYJ by 5.
Cote’s pick: NYJ 23-20.
This is first time this year Miami has not been a double-digit underdog on road. (Hey, sometimes progress comes in small packages!) A couple of things make this tough pick. One, Jets are wildly erratic under Adam Gase. Two, there are sharply conflicting trends. For example, Dolphins have won six of past seven in this rivalry (including 26-18 in Week 9) and eight of past 11 trips to NYJ. But Miami has lost 11 of past 12 road games overall. Fins catch break by injury absence of top Planes safety Jamal Adams. But does that mean inconsistent Ryan Fitzpatrick can produce the same performance on road that stunned Philly at home last week? Jets’ superior defense and Miami’s poor O-line and lack of running game tilt this pick. Point spread is fat, though. I mean they are the Stinkin’ Jets.
GAME OF THE WEEK
49ERS (10-2) at SAINTS (10-2)
Line: NO by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: NO 27-23.
Gargantuan battle this week for GOTW honors (Ravens-Bills, Chiefs-Pats, Seahawks-Rams), but give us two of the NFL’s five 10-win teams meeting with NFC’s No. 1 seed in play. Saints already have clinched division; Niners clinch playoffs with win if Rams lose. San Fran is banged up on defense and TE George Kittle is iffy, underlining Frans’ offensive downturn on road. N’Awlins is rested after playing Thursday. Drew Brees, don’t fail me now!
UPSET OF THE WEEK
TITANS (7-5) at RAIDERS (6-6)
Line: TEN by 3.
Cote’s pick: OAK 24-20.
“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Oakland Raaawwwk!” Oakland has looked really bad in dropping two in a row, while Tenners have won three in row led by the rebirth of Ryan Tannehill. So I get the point spread. Especially because, with top RBs Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs banged up, Titans’ Henry seems likelier to play. But Oakland is 5-1 at home, where Titans have lost 13 of past 16 trips. It’ll leave Jon Gruden smiling. “I tell you what, man, even smiling, Gruden looks sinister,” notes U-Bird. “Jon Graawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 14:
@Falcons (3-9, -3) over Panthers (5-7), 27-20: Carolina fired popular coach Ron Rivera to punctuate a four-game losing streak, so interim guy Perry Fewell inherits a demoralized squad led by a slumping QB in Kyle Allen. We’ll take Matt Ryan at home for season sweep.
Ravens (10-2, -5 1/2) over @Bills (9-3), 21-16: Buffs a 9-3 home dog by almost a touchdown speaks to doubts about Bills less than it does regard for Ravens as new fave to win Super Bowl as MVP momentum builds for Lamar Jackson. Crows clinch playoffs with win, but rested Bills will play with a boulder on the shoulder and stay close.
@Browns (5-7, -7 1/2) over Bengals (1-11), 23-17: Cincy finally won last week as Cleveland hurtles to 18th straight nonplayoff season. (Ohio must be so proud!) Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham all are banged up but should play — although QB’s thumb injury may bother him. Return of Andy Dalton and improved D should help Gals stay inside bet line.
@Packers (9-3, -13) over Redskins (3-9), 30-13: Astonishingly, Washington has won two in a row despite Dwayne Haskins. All good things must end, alas. ‘Skins’ lousy run-D will help balance Gee Bees’ slumping ground game and give Aaron Rodgers the help he has been lacking lately.
@Vikings (8-4, -13) over Lions (3-8-1), 27-16: Detroit is on a 1-8 skid in division games, and Minny’s defense will make it rough on Lions third-string QB David Blough. Meanwhile Vikes are encouraged that RB Dalvin Cook will play. Still leaning Motown with points. Seven of Lions’ eight losses have been by one score.
@Buccaneers (5-7, -3) over Colts (6-6), 27-23: Whenever I pick Jameis Winston and Tampa to win I’m like the actor in a mob movie who’s afraid to turn his car ignition for fear of an explosion. Counting on Good Jameis showing up. Nags tempt as upset, but Jacoby Brissett really misses top target T.Y. Hilton (calf), who trends likely out again.
@Texans (8-4, -9 1/2) over Broncos (4-8), 28-13: The Texans can’t help but face letdown here after impressively beating Tom Brady and Patriots last week. Will Houston be able to summon same defensive ferocity vs. Drew Lock in his second career start? No. But they won’t need all that.
@Jaguars (4-8, +3) over Chargers (4-8), 23-20: Upset! Two of NFL’s monumentally disappointing teams enter having lost combined seven games in a row. Jax plays better for Gardner Minshew, who gets ball again after Nick Foles’ quick hook. Also like Jags pass rush bothering Philip Rivers.
@Patriots (10-2, -3) over Chiefs (8-4), 28-24: New England clinches playoffs with win, while K.C. locks up division with win if Oakland loses. High-stakes matchup finds bloom off Brady, who suddenly seems his age, and Patriots, who for now have ceded AFC hierarchy to Baltimore. Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs appear an upset waiting to happen in AFC Championship Game rematch. When were Patriots last bare-minimum three-point home favorites? Still, I see a big defensive show by Pats, and NE owning ground and clock vs. bad Chiefs run D. Oh, and 21 straight wins in Foxborough catches the eye, too!
Steelers (7-5, -2 1/2) over @Cardinals (3-8-1), 24-16: Pitt has won two straight and six of seven despite mostly missing James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster, who figure out again. Now they’re down to third-string QB Devlin (Duck) Hodges). How do they keep winning? Defense. See it again here as Steelers make it tough on Kyler Murray.
@Rams (7-5, -1) over Seahawks (10-2), 24-17: Tasty Sunday night duel finds Seattle able to clinch playoffs with win, but with tough test to do it. Seahawks were favored by 1 before it swung to Rams by 1. (We use the Caesars Sportsbook lines as of midafternoon Thursday). Hawks have won five straight and are unbeaten on road. Rams need this result a lot more, and get it with big Aaron Donald-led defensive show in prime time.
@Eagles (5-7, -10) over Giants (2-10), 27-19: Monday night booth got early Christmas gift when an otherwise challenge-to-make-interesting matchup got its hook: Eli Manning’s first appearance since Week 2. (Sorry about that ankle injury, Daniel Jones, but thank you!) Giants have lost eight in a row and Eagles three in a row, but at least there’s the pathos of Manning’s unexpected mini-farewell tour. Birds are clearly better than Biggies, but hunch an NYG cover as the G-Men (sort of) rally behind Eli.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Rolled twin 9-7s last week. Didn’t see Dolphins’ exhilarating upset of Philly coming, but counter-punched by hitting another Upset of the Week with winless Bengals beating Jets (“Aawwk!”). Also nailed miniupset with Steelers over Browns, a dog-with-points on Bills, and a rare Exacto with Packers’ 31-13 win over Giants. We haven’t matched our record-setting 2018 season, but ‘19 sails quite nicely into the home stretch. Tailwind, please! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Cowboys (-2 1/2) over @Bears, 20-17. Find the full predix capsule here].
Overall; Vs. spread
Week 13 — 9-7, .563; 9-7, .563
Season — 129-62-1, .675; 102-88-2, .537
Final 2018 — 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582
This story was originally published December 5, 2019 at 4:55 PM.
