Why Dolphins will hang an “L-O-S-S!” on Jets and the rest of our NFL Week 7 picks

NFL WEEK 7

GREG COTE'S NFL PICKS OF THE WEEK

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

JETS (3-3) at DOLPHINS (3-2)

LINE: MIA by 3.

COTE'S PICK: MIA 23-17.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

First score wins? Defenses should dominate in this AFC East grudge match as oft-bitter rivals meet for 105th time. Revenge will be in the air at The Rock for the home team after Dolphins got embarrassed in 20-6 Week 3 loss up there – shut out but for a meaningless last-second score. Both teams come in with some tailwind. Miami's exhilirating road-rally stunned Atlanta, 20-17, a comatose offense finally showing a pulse. And NYJ might well have upset the Patriots last week if not for an officiating blunder negating a TD. Key injuries may shape this result. Center Mike Pouncey and receiver DeVante Parker seemed unlikely late in the week to go for Miami, while the Planes' best runner (Bilal Powell) and D-lineman (Muhammad Wilkerson) also were iffy to play. Crowd also could be a factor, believe it or not. Dolfans will need to assert; Jets had won four straight in Miami before Fins won here last November. Bottom line? If Adam Gase's game plan is on point, Jay Ajayi should have a big, clock-dominating day against a Planes' run defense allowing a fat 4.6 yards per opponent carry. That's why the Jets should “L-O-S-E, Lose!”

GAME OF THE WEEK

FALCONS (3-2) at PATRIOTS (4-2)

LINE: NE by 3.

COTE'S PICK: NE 31-26.

TV: 8:30 p.m., NBC.

Easy GOTW call because Sunday prime-timer is a rematch of last season's Super Bowl, which saw (depending on one's perspective) either the greatest comeback in SB history or the most embarrassing collapse. Can't it be both? Falcons led 28-3 in third quarter but somehow watched as Patriots raised The Vince yet again. Oddly, the rematch finds neither team especially dominant thus far in 2017. Atlanta just lost at home to the Dolphins (!), and Matt Ryan has been a long way from great, while New England might be 3-3 right now if not for the good fortune of an officiating boner that really hurt the Jets last week. Figure the Dirty Birds' advantage in revenge motivation will be offset by Pats' home-field edge. I don't believe I will ever pick against Tom Brady at home except when a lack of sobriety might be my only excuse.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

SAINTS (3-2) at PACKERS (4-2)

LINE: NO by 5.

COTE'S PICK: GB 27-23

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Summoning all the old ghosts. Lambeaawwk Field! Vince Lombaaawwwk!” If ever I needed an Upset of the Week pick to count on the home field and the power of intangibles, it's here. See, it's more than Aaron Rodgers being out indefinitely with a broken collarbone. (Although it's mostly that!). Pack is beat-up beyond that, especially on O-line, making a foreboding first NFL start for Brett Hundley. And the Saints are no longer awful on defense, while Drew Brees, at 38, shows no signs his prime is leaving him. So, yes, logically, I get the betting line. But the hunch in the gut won't go away. Hundley will be good enough, Gee Bees defense will arise bigly, and Rodgers will end the game with a sideline smile. “Si de verdad,” nods U-Bird. “Sideline smaaawwwk!”

OTHER GAMES

@Bills (3-2, -3) over Buccaneers (2-3), 21-17: Ryan Fitzpatrick on call because Jameis Winston will play with sprained shoulder if he plays at all. Another reason to like Buffs in a defensive scrum.

Panthers (4-2, -3) over @Bears (2-4), 23-16: Cats are 3-0 on road and playing with extra rest. Their run-D will limit Jordan Howard and force game into Mitch Trubisky's green hands.

Titans (3-3, -5 ½) over @Browns (0-6), 27-23: Upset Alert! Give Earthtones big shot at home, despite astonishing run of 25 losses in past 26 games and DeShone Kizer (again) at QB.

Jaguars (3-3, -3) over @Colts (2-4), 24-16: Home 'dog in a division game tempts a tad, but Luck-less Nags don't have much to offer other than a propensity to blow leads.

Cardinals (3-3, +3 ½) over Rams (4-2), 31-23: “Aawwk!” Upset. L.A. is “home” for this breakfast game, but it's in London – Twickenham Stadium, a rugby park. 'Zona is strong division team (5-0-1 run), and revitalized Adrian Peterson should find leg room vs. suspect Rams run stopping.

@Vikings (4-2, -5 ½) over Ravens (3-3), 19-13: Purple Bowl! Will ghost of Prince play at half? (Too soon?) Jerick McKinnon should make his fantasy owners happy again vs. bad Crows run-D.

Cowboys (2-3, -6) over @49ers (0-6), 24-20: Upset Alert! SF has lost five in row by three points or fewer, an NFL record. Niners are due. 'Boys off a bye, though, and facing first-time starting QB in C.J. Beathard.

Seahawks (3-2, -5) over @Giants (1-5), 20-17: Not sure Seattle is all that special this year, particularly on road, but they still have enough defensive might to stop Eli's depleted Biggies.

@Steelers (4-2, -5) over Bengals (2-3), 24-20: Cincy has won two straight and is coming off a bye, but Pitt's No. 1-ranked pass D will cool surging Andy Dalton. That and venue tilt pick.

Broncos (3-2, even) over @Chargers (2-4), 19-17: Sputtering Denver needs embattled Trevor Siemian to reassert. Diego has won two straight. But still trust Broncos' D lot more than LAC's.

@Eagles (5-1, -4 ½) over Redskins (3-2), 27-21: NFC East grudge on a Monday night finds Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins both flying high. But it's Wentz who's won four straight and has the offensive pop to outscore 'Skins.

Week 7 byes: Lions, Texans.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Finally! A positive week. Well, positive on a scale of maybe-this-damned-slump-has-ended-at-last. The 8-6 mark straight-up actually was solid in a brutal week. For example, it would have led the 11-person ESPN Experts Panel, where the records ranged from 7-7 to 4-10. Against the spread we rolled a thumbs-up 7-5-2, with a pair of games off the board. Nailed our Upset of the Week with Steelers over Chiefs (“Aawwk!”), had another sizable upset bull's-eye with Vikings over Packers, and collected a third mini-upset with Cardinals over Bucs. Also had a pair of ‘dogs-with-points in Dolphins (at Atlanta) and Jets (vs. New England). Are we on a roll? Not yet. But we're out of the gutter and up on our hind legs again. [Note: Thursday night pick was Chiefs (-3) over Raiders, 27-17].

Overall Pct. Vs. Spread Pct.

Week 6 8-6 .571 7-5-2 .583

Season 47-44 .516 36-49-6 .429

Final 2016 159-95-2 .626 139-109-8 .560

This story was originally published October 19, 2017 at 12:48 PM with the headline "Why Dolphins will hang an “L-O-S-S!” on Jets and the rest of our NFL Week 7 picks."