Six things that we want to see and don’t want to see as Heat tries to improve the team
If you’re a Heat fan, there are six things that you should hope for this offseason, beyond the perpetual dream that a whale will force his way to Miami:
▪ Hope that another team covets Andrew Wiggins, because the former first-round pick — and draft picks — would be the sensible starting point in trade discussions if a disgruntled All Star player becomes available.
The notion of dealing Bam Adebayo — always unlikely — becomes more unappealing now with the evolution of his three-point game, unless Giannis Antetokounmpo surprisingly forces his way out.
And Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Houston could trump a Heat offer with Adebayo because those teams have more tradeable first round picks than Miami, which can trade two or three, depending on the timing.
The idea of selling high on Tyler Herro could warrant consideration, but I’m not sure what that accomplishes because of Herro’s age (25), ascending game, affordable contract ($31 million, $33 million the next two seasons) and the Heat’s need for explosive players with precisely his offensive skill set. More importantly, it seems unlikely the Heat could acquire a clear-cut better player in exchange because of his defensive issues.
If a clear-cut All-NBA player becomes available, including Adebayo or Herro in a trade certainly would warrant discussion. But for another once-every-five-year All-Star? That doesn’t necessarily improve your team.
Wiggins, conversely, has the type of talent, scoring chops and decent contract ($28 million next season, $30 million player option in 2026-27) that could hold some appeal to a team that’s boxed into a corner by a star player. At least Miami must hope so.
▪ Hope that Miami doesn’t again draft a college wing with plenty of experience but a limited athletic ceiling and questionable three-point shooting.
While the Heat has generally drafted well, there should be a degree of buyer’s remorse on Jaime Jaquez Jr., despite his high character and eagerness to improve.
With Miami viewing itself as a championship contender in 2023-24, the Heat understandably took comfort in finding an NBA-ready player who had 134 college games and functional skills. The pick could easily be justified then, and to an extent, now.
But Miami shouldn’t have assumed that Jaquez — a 32.8% three-point shooter at UCLA — would become markedly better as a pro. (He’s at 31.8% on threes with the Heat.)
If given a choice between the best athlete (Cam Whitmore), the best shooter (Brandin Podziemski) or the most experienced player with the lowest athletic ceiling, Miami probably should opt for Door A or B. As it turns out, those two players were taken with the two picks after Jaquez was selected 18th in 2023.
Podziemski, who played just 48 college games, shot 42.4% on threes in college and that has translated to the pros (37.8 with Golden State), while becoming a playoff starter and averaging 11.8 points per game.
Whitmore, who played just 26 games in college, has developed in his second year in Houston, shooting better than Jaquez and putting up big numbers late in the season against good teams: 27 points, 11 boards against OKC and 34 and eight against the Lakers. He hasn’t been a factor in the playoffs, and it’s too early to tell if he will be a much better player than Jaquez.
Miami went for upside with Kel’el Ware and Nikola Jovic, and those have worked out better than the Jaquez pick, at least so far.
▪ Hope another team doesn’t make an especially lucrative offer to Davion Mitchell.
The Heat is expected to extend an $8.7 million qualifying offer to Mitchell, which gives Miami a chance to match outside offers.
Even though signing Mitchell for two or three years would further eat away at Miami’s 2026 cap space, the Heat is headed down a road of not being a “room” team anyway in 2026.
If the money is reasonable in 2026-27 (perhaps $9 million), re-sign Mitchell and let cap savant/GM Andy Elisburg worry about the cap consequences later.
But if the money goes well above $10 million — in full midlevel exception range — then it’s probably wise to wish Mitchell luck elsewhere and hope that Dru Smith replicates what he displayed in November before his torn Achilles.
If this roster returns as is (unlikely) and Miami uses Golden State’s pick at 20 instead of trading it, the Heat would be a tax team again if it gives Mitchell more than $4 million or so. But the Heat would have until next April to get below the tax to avoid triggering the especially punitive repeater tax.
▪ Hope that the Heat doesn’t use injuries, the play-in victories or the Jimmy Butler-created chaos to convince themselves that only minor moves and internal growth are needed.
Teams can talk themselves into anything. Miami could try to rationalize the 10-game losing streak, the playoff drubbing and the repeated blown leads by citing injuries to Jovic and Dru Smith and Wiggins (who dealt with an ankle injury in the final weeks), the acclamation period for Wiggins and the Butler fiasco.
The Heat can cite its two play-in wins and begin to wonder “What would this group do with a full training camp?”
Our plea to the Heat: Please do not do any of that. There’s not enough talent — and there wasn’t enough winning — to warrant that.
There’s also something fundamentally flawed with the mental makeup of a team that loses so many late leads and tends to unravel so quickly when something goes wrong, as witnessed in the two playoff home debacles against Cleveland.
There are pieces here that could potentially form a fourth or fifth seed, but only if an All-Star player is added to the mix without sacrificing Adebayo and ideally, Herro and Ware.
Because of the NBA Finals run in 2023, the Heat fooled itself into thinking it was good enough, TNT’s Stan Van Gundy has said. I understand the rationale, because Butler wasn’t healthy against Boston in last year’s playoffs. It didn’t work out, and the Heat -- heading into last summer -- should never have been so confident in this roster.
The late-season six-game winning streak, including the April victory in Boston, shouldn’t lead to a similar conclusion this time. It’s simply not justified.
▪ Never again trade a first round pick for a player who isn’t an All Star.
Draft inventory must be treasured, and using a future first for Terry Rozier proved as big a Heat mistake as any this decade, though nobody could have fully anticipated the extreme regression in his shooting and his game.
(And I’m the last person who should blame the Heat on this, because I supported the trade at the time.)
Not only did Rozier cost the Heat a future pick, but it prevents Miami from trading any more first-round picks this decade and clogs the Heat’s cap with his $26 million salary next season.
▪ Hope that the narrative continues to move away from “Heat culture,” at least as a public talking point.
In a cruel coincidence, Miami’s misfortunes — particularly losing far too often at home, and by large margins — began when the team began using “Heat culture” as a marketing slogan.
The Culture jerseys and Culture Court felt arrogant last season, and the Heat smartly has dialed all of that back, though it has reportedly pocketed more than $1 million in “culture” apparel and other inventory.
Duncan Robinson explained it well on the “Young Man and Three” podcast.
“I think a lot of it stems from Coach [Pat] Riley,” Robinson said. “Obviously, I love the organization and I have benefited from it a lot. We had some great runs and great times. I will say, when they started to sort of shift into like a marketing thing, I think it lost a little bit. At least for me, as somebody who, when I got there, I didn’t necessarily know about Heat Culture or hear about it in that way.
“And then you get in between the walls and see it manifest in the day-to-day. Then you buy into this. I’m not coming at the missteps of the organization, but when we had the Culture jerseys and were on the court, I think it ripened us for people to make fun of us.”
In fact, I received a text from a longtime NBA front office person as the Heat was losing Game 4 against Cleveland by 55, with the sobering message that some NBA people were enjoying the Heat’s dress-down because some had tired of all the culture talk. (Some of that might be jealousy over their years of success.)
The hallmarks of Heat culture should remain, and it’s a key foundational piece to all of the great things achieved by the franchise. But like a neighbor’s loud pet, it’s best to be seen and not heard.
This story was originally published May 2, 2025 at 3:31 PM.
