As QB cap hit jumps $30 million and more needs are exposed, Dolphins face sobering reality
There’s a classic Dutch folk story about a young boy who heroically plugged a small leak in a dike with a finger, preventing a catastrophic flood by holding back the water until help arrives. That spawned the term “fingers in the dike.”
And that phrase comes to mind when considering the ominous circumstances facing the Dolphins in the months ahead when they begin offseason No. 7 of the Great Tank, a process that started in March 2019 and hasn’t yielded a single significant achievement.
The Dolphins simply have too many holes to fill and not enough fingers, or in this case, available 2025 cap space to fill them. The Dolphins enter Tuesday $2.6 million over the projected salary cap, per overthecap.com.
And here’s what’s most worrisome: If the Dolphins have had trouble constructing a contender through the first six years of the rebuild, it’s about to get much harder.
It’s much easier to fill a roster when your quarterback is on an affordable rookie contract. But that changes next season, when Tua Tagovailoa’s cap number rises from its current to $9.5 million to $39.4 million when his four-year, $212 million extension kicks in. That essentially means the Dolphins cannot afford three or four productive starters that they could have afforded with a quarterback on a rookie deal.
And those three or four starters make a big difference on a team with myriad shortcomings.You would need to hold up more than 15 fingers to account for all of Miami’s needs.
On offense, they need to sign a competent backup quarterback, a No. 3 offensive tackle (Kendall Lamm is a free agent), a No. 3 receiver to supplement Malik Washington behind the starters; and most importantly, two new guards – an essential, non-negotiable first step in rebuilding the trenches and fixing a running game that has regressed from among the league’s best to the second-worst statistically.
They might need to find a starting receiver if they acquisce to Tyreek Hill’s implied desire to play elsewhere.
They need to find better in-line blocking tight ends than Julian Hill and Durham Smythe, who have been serviceable at times but generally haven’t been able to aid the ailing run game as another season slips away.
They’ll also need backup guards; Rob Jones and Liam Eichenberg - who seem likely to be replaced as starters - are eligible for free agency.
So that’s as many as 10 key jobs on offense that need better players, including two starters. And that’s assuming rookie Patrick Paul is ready to replace Terron Armstead if the Dolphins part ways with their Pro Bowl left tackle, which wouldn’t be surprising because of his contract, age and troublesome knee.
And it gets worse, folks, when you realize all that must be done on the other side of the ball.
Unless impending free agent Calais Campbell returns for another season, the Dolphins need to find two new defensive linemen to start alongside Zach Sieler - one to replace Campbell and another to upgrade at defensive tackle, a position where the Dolphins foolishly tried to survive with bargain basement players (Benito Jones and Neil Farrell and long-since jettisoned Neville Gallimore, Teair Tart and Brandon Pili).
Then they’ll need to either re-sign Tyrel Dodson (a decent possibility) or Anthony Walker Jr. or sign another starting inside linebacker.
Then they’ll need to find two new safeties. The Dolphins likely will not give Jevon Holland the $15 million plus annual contract he assuredly will be seeking, because the performance this season doesn’t justify it, and the dearth of cap space cannot accommodate it.
And they’ll likely move on from Jordan Poyer, who has a dreadful 130.1 passer rating in his coverage area. (Helpful tip: If the Bills believe a player is past his years of peak effectiveness, you should believe them.)
So that’s five new starters needed on defense. They’ll also need a No. 3 inside linebacker, a No. 3 safety (Elijah Campbell is a free agent), a top backup defensive tackle (Da’Shawn Hand is a free agent).
So that’s eight key roles that need to be filled on defense, including five starters.
So let’s do the math: This offseason, the Dolphins need at least seven starters and at least 18 players overall to fill significant roles. (Some of those 18, such as Dodson or Hand, could already be on the team but need to be given a new contract that would count against the cap.)
And how exactly are they going to do this with no current cap space and a spotty draft record?
That financial reality – coupled with the severe regression of the running game and the mysterious disappearance of the explosive plays that were the hallmark of this Dolphins offense - have left this rebuild at a worrisome crossroads.
Of those 18 needs, some assuredly must be filled in the draft and with cheap veteran stopgaps. But generally, you get what you pay for, and for every Zach Sieler claimed on waivers, there are five players like Jonathan Harris, Neville Gallimore and Willie Snead IV, cheap veterans who don’t work out.
The Dolphins are in this financial predicament largely because seven players have 2025 cap hits topping $13 million, with four of those above $22 million: Tagovailoa ($39.4 million cap hit), outside linebacker Bradley Chubb ($29.3 million), Hill ($27.7 million), Armstead ($22.1 million), cornerback Jalen Ramsey ($16.7 million), right tackle Austin Jackson ($13.8 million) and linebacker Jaelan Phillips ($13.2 million).
Once your quarterback gets paid big money -- like Tagovailoa was this past July-- cap challenges are inevitable, especially for teams, like the Dolphins, that don’t hit on enough draft picks on cheap rookie contracts.
The Dolphins can create some space by again restructuring contracts (Chubb and his $29.3 million 2025 cap hit are at the top of the list), making minor moves (releasing Smythe, for example, saves $3.4 million in space) and moving on from Armstead, who was playing at an elite level but whose 2025 cap hit drop from $22.1 million to $7.8 million if he’s released with a post-June 1 designation. (Keep in mind that none of that savings could be used in March/April/May free agency.)
If the Dolphins trade Hill before June 1, his Dolphins cap hit for 2025 would rise slightly to $28.3 million. It would drop to $12.7 million on Miami’s 2025 cap if he’s traded after June 1, but Miami wouldn’t get 2025 draft picks in a post-June 1 transaction.
Cap gymnastics will give the Dolphins some flexibility, but not nearly enough to fill seven starting positions with proven, distinguished starters.
What about moving on from Chubb? The Dolphins need him and his cap hit would drop from only $29.3 million to $27.3 million if he were traded or cut before June 1. (It would be $9.1 million in dead 2025 money on Miami’s cap if he’s traded or cut after June 1.)
The Dolphins thus wouldn’t have the cap space to sign replacements in free agency if they dealt Hill or Chubb or Jaylen Waddle, whose modest $8.0 million cap number for 2025 would swell to $15.1 million in 2025 dead money if Miami trades him before June 1.
So with financial limitations and an underwhelming record of personnel evaluations, how exactly does this team fill nearly 20 holes next spring? It’s a sobering reality that leaves a shaky rebuild teetering at its foundation.
This story was originally published January 7, 2025 at 9:40 AM.
