Examining three areas of regression for Dolphins. And grades, notes and DuBose update
In evaluating how the Dolphins regressed from an 11-win team with a chance to win the AFC East on the final night of the season to a long shot to qualify for the playoffs, any list starts with poor personnel decisions, injuries and the failure to adequately address backup quarterback.
But from a statistical standpoint, three areas of regression particularly stand out:
▪ The run game: Miami has gone from ranking first in the league in yards per carry in 2023 (at 5.0) to tied for 31st this season (at 3.9), ahead of only Las Vegas.
The running game struggled for a fifth consecutive week on Sunday, mustering just 52 yards on 2.7 per carry. The Dolphins haven’t rushed for 100 yards in six consecutive games.
▪ Lack of big plays: The Dolphins can talk all they want about taking what the defense gives them, but the drop in explosive plays has been enormous and damaging.
Last season, Miami had 59 passing plays of 20 yards or more, which was eighth most in the league. This year, they have 31 such plays, which is fourth fewest.
Meanwhile, Miami’s run plays of 20 yards or more have plunged from 17 last season (third most in the league) to four this year (third fewest).
▪ Sacks: Last year, the Dolphins were third in the league with 56. This season? Their 28 sacks are tied for 26th.
That’s largely a byproduct of injuries to Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb (a Dec. 31 knee injury that Miami knew would sideline him much of this season) and the ill-fated decision to sign Shaq Barrett (who retired before training camp) instead of Andrew Van Ginkel.
GRANT DUBOSE UPDATE
Dolphins receiver Grant DuBose, who sustained a head injury and was hospitalized after a head-to-head collision with Texans safety Calen Bullock in Sunday’s game, has avoided the worst-case scenario.
The team issued a statement Monday morning: “After sustaining a head injury in yesterday’s game, Grant DuBose remained at a local Houston hospital for evaluation overnight. He has movement in all extremities and initial tests have revealed positive results. He remains under the care of doctors for continued observation.”
NOTES BY POSITION
▪ Running back: De’Von Achane has gone from averaging 7.8 yards as a rookie (highest for a back with 100 carries since 1934) to 3.9 this season, which ranks 32nd for players with a minimum of 100 carries.
Poor blocking his largely contributed to that, but Achane hasn’t been able to break the type of big runs that he did a year ago.
He mustered just 41 yards on Sunday (3.4 per carry) while playing 45 of Miami’s 68 offensive snaps. He remains an asset in the passing game; his seven receptions gave him 70 for the season, most among NFL running backs.
Raheem Mostert, who ran six times for 8 yards, played 26 offensive snaps. Rookie Jaylen Wright, who ran once for 3 yards, played three snaps.
▪ Receiver: Not only did Tyreek Hill finish with two just catches for 36 yards, but Hill had an 8.9 passer rating when targeted (via ESPN and Next Gen Stats). Derrek Stingley Jr. intercepted two passes thrown to him in the fourth quarter.
Hill played 63 of 68 offensive snaps, while Malik Washington played 40 and River Cracraft 22. Jaylen Waddle played 26 before leaving with a knee injury. DuBose played 11 before being hospitalized with a head injury.
▪ Tight end: Jonnu Smith, who played 45 of 68 snaps, scored Miami’s touchdown and ranks fourth among all NFL tight ends in receiving yards (740), behind only Brock Bowers (league-leading 933), George Kittle and Trey McBride. PFF rated him as Miami’s best player on offense on Sunday, just ahead of Washington.
Julian Hill played 27 snaps and Durham Smythe logged 16.
▪ Offensive line: Pro Football Focus said rookie left tackle Patrick Paul -- who was filling in for the injured Terron Armstead -- was Miami’s best pass blocker on Sunday; he allowed no sacks and just one pressure on 50 pass-blocking snaps.
PFF blamed fill-in right tackle Jackson Carman for one sack. Liam Eichenberg, Carman and Robert Jones all allowed three pressures.
Among offensive linemen, PFF rated Jones Miami’s best run blocker on Sunday and Paul the worst. But none of their grades were good.
And PFF rated Eichenberg Miami’s second-worst player on offense on Sunday, ahead of only quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
▪ Defensive line: Zach Sieler played 45 of Miami’s 50 defensive snaps and had 1.5 sacks, giving him 17.5 since the start of last season and 7.5 this season, which leads all AFC interior players.
Calais Campbell played 31 defensive snaps, Benito Jones 26, Da’Shawn Hand 19 and Matt Dickerson four. PFF said Sieler and Campbell were the Dolphins’ fourth- and fifth-best defenders on Sunday and ranked Jones the worst.
▪ Linebacker: At outside linebacker, Chop Robinson played 28 of the 50 snaps and had two sacks, giving him five for the season. He had six pressures, and his four quarterback hits Sunday were the most by a Dolphins defender this season.
Emmanuel Ogbah played 41 defensive snaps, Quinton Bell 19 and Mo Kamara 2.
At inside linebacker, Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker logged all 50 snaps.
PFF rated Robinson Miami’s second best player on defense on Sunday, and Brooks was third.
▪ Safety: Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer played all 50 defensive snaps, and safety Elijah Campbell joined them on the field for eight plays.
Holland permitted four of five passes to be caught for 29 yards, per PFF. Poyer allowed one target to be caught, for 6 yards, and that play went for a touchdown, when there appeared to be miscommunication with Jalen Ramsey.
▪ Cornerback: Ramsey and Kendall Fuller played all 50 snaps, while Kader Kohou logged 27.
PFF said Kohou was Miami’s best player on defense on Sunday; he was targeted four times and allowed two completions for minus 3 yards. He also forced a fumble.
In assigning blame to Poyer on the aforementioned touchdown, PFF said Ramsey was targeted only once all day, and that throw was incomplete. Fuller permitted three catches on four targets, for 36 yards.
▪ While every Dolphins who plays offense logged an offensive snap except backup lineman Ryan Hayes, five Dolphins defenders only played special teams — cornerbacks Storm Duck and Siran Neal, safety Patrick McMorris and linebackers Duke Riley and Channing Tindall.
This story was originally published December 16, 2024 at 10:44 AM.
