Examining the regression, stagnation of several Heat players and why it hurts in two ways
Good for Dru Smith for maximizing his skill set and earning the trust from coach Erik Spoelstra to play every minute of every fourth quarter for nearly four games in a row before fouling out late in regulation of the Heat’s 125-124 overtime loss in Detroit on Monday.
Good for Pelle Larsson for earning the confidence from Spoelstra to play clutch minutes against Sacramento, Dallas and Milwaukee before recently being shelved by an ankle injury.
But let’s not lose sight of this: That a player on a two-way contract (Smith) and a rookie second-rounder (Larsson) are playing in crunch time ahead of veterans alongside the Heat’s pseudo Big 3 — while certainly a credit to Smith and Larsson — also spotlights the most discouraging development so far in Year 6 of this era of Heat basketball:
Aside from Tyler Herro, not a single returning player on a Heat standard contract has raised his game, months after president Pat Riley implored his players to improve.
And though the Heat (which next plays at home Friday against Oklahoma City) stands at 13-11 – primarily due to Herro’s excellence, contributions from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and catching a handful of teams on nights without their best player — the inconsistency of most others on the roster has been damaging in two ways:
A). The Heat has squandered a chance to win several winnable games, like Tuesday in Detroit, when the Pistons played without starters Tobias Harris and Jaden Ivey.
B). Instead of owning enough appealing assets to be able to supplement the Butler/Adebayo/Herro core with a good player in a trade, the Heat now faces longer odds in adding a difference-maker to this group, particularly if Herro becomes off limits in trade talks involving any player that’s not All-NBA caliber.
And that - combined with restrictive new trade rules and tax ramifications – explain why moving on from Butler at some point might be more realistic than supplementing the Butler/Adebayo/Herro core with another genuinely significant piece.
If the Heat makes Herro off limits for anybody who’s not a star — a position that now could be thoroughly justified because of his sterling play this season — the Heat seemingly lacks the enticing players to make such a trade. While Herro’s value has risen, none of the supporting cast’s value has improved. Consider:
▪ Terry Rozier: The veteran point guard — acquired last January for Kyle Lowry and a conditional first-round pick that becomes unconditional if the Heat misses the playoffs this season or in 2026-27 — has gone from a decent player in a trade to little more than a potential salary filler after struggling mightily to start the season and losing his starting job.
Rozier’s scoring average has dipped from 23.2 with Charlotte before the trade last January to 11.7 this season, but the reasons for that extend far beyond a reduction in shots as a fourth option in Miami after serving as a first scoring option with the Hornets.
His 39.8 shooting percentage is not only well below his 45.9 last season with the Hornets, but also ranks 128th among 136 NBA players who have logged enough minutes to qualify.
His 3.1-to-1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio is his worst this decade. The player he guards is shooting 49.2 percent; those players shoot 45.6 against everyone else, per NBA.com.
Rozier is due $24.9 million this season, and $24.9 million of his $26.6 million salary for next season is guaranteed, with the salary becoming fully guaranteed if he plays in 70 games this season or if the Heat makes the Eastern Conference Finals.
So instead of becoming a carrot in a potential trade, Rozier has become little more than a contract to help facilitate a deal if needed.
▪ Duncan Robinson: The veteran has played well at times, but likely not well enough to entice a team to view him as a key player in a deal for a difference-maker. He stands at 42.2 percent from the field (down from 45 last season) and 38.5 percent on threes, good but nowhere near his 44.6 and 44.8 percentages in 2019-20 and 2020-21.
He’s due $19.9 million in the final year of his contract next season, but only $9.9 million is guaranteed, with a guarantee deadline between July 4 and 6, 2025.
▪ Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Aside from Rozier’s regression, Jaquez’s lack of growth has been most damaging, both from a team performance and trade asset standpoint.
After making six of seven threes in the Heat’s first three games of the season, he has shot 4 for 33 on threes since, leaving him at 25 percent beyond the arc, well below his 32.2 last season.
His overall shooting percentage has plunged to 42.0, down from 48.9 last season. The significant reduction in late-game minutes has been telling. The slow start to his sophomore season has reshaped the projection of Jaquez from a potentially productive NBA starter to a decent rotation piece with limitations.
▪ Nikola Jovic: There have been occasional memorable moments (like the 14-point outburst in last week’s win against Toronto), but not nearly enough to be viewed as a gem in a trade package.
The three-point shooting has regressed from 39.9 to 34.8; the rebounding average, which was already lacking for a player of his size (6-10), has dropped from 4.2 to 3.7; and the defense — while improved from his rookie season — remains spotty.
Instead of solidifying his spot as an NBA power rotation starter, Jovic was yanked from the starting lineup and has had more DNP-CDs (did not play/coach’s decision) than appearances since Thanksgiving week (six to two).
▪ The others: There isn’t enough body of work for the Heat to pitch Kel’El Ware or Larsson as jewels, even if they might prove to be… While Haywood Highsmith would have value as a rotation player for many teams, he’s more throw-in than a key component of any deal… Josh Richardson’s value, already very limited, has further declined.
▪ Draft picks: Miami has five first-round picks in the next seven draft, but only one of the five is a tradeable first-round pick in an era when a large volume of picks are often needed to land very good players on the trade market; the Julius Randle/Donte DiVicenzo for Karl Anthony-Towns Knicks-Timberwolves trade was a rare exception.
During the six seasons of the Butler era, the Heat made three significant trades to supplement the core: Jae Crowder/Andre Iguodola (which helped during the NBA Finals Orlando bubble run); Kyle Lowry (who contributed in the Heat’s Finals run but was generally a disappointment) and Rozier, who hasn’t panned out.
If Miami is going to try to make another significant acquisition — instead of moving on from Butler before the Feb. 6 trade deadline or next summer — it will need some of the aforementioned pieces to enhance their value.
This story was originally published December 17, 2024 at 12:31 PM.
