An updated look at the Dolphins’ playoff permutations. And 15 notes, thoughts on the win
Fifteen quick notes and thoughts after the Dolphins’ dramatic 32-26 overtime win against the Jets:
▪ The Dolphins’ playoff hopes remain very much alive, but they will need to run the ball and defend far better than they did in narrowly escaping Sunday. And they will need help, particularly from Denver Broncos opponents.
If Miami (6-7) can somehow win out (at Houston, San Francisco, at Cleveland, at Jets), they have a puncher’s chance at the postseason because of the difficulty of Denver’s remaining schedule and because Miami would win a tiebreaker with the Broncos.
Denver (8-5), which has a bye this weekend, closes against the Colts, at the Chargers, at Cincinnati and home against Kansas City.
So if the Dolphins win out, and the Broncos lose, hypothetically, at the Chargers and either at Cincinnati or home against Kansas City, Miami would make the playoffs ahead of Denver — provided Indianapolis loses one of its final four games and doesn’t overtake Houston (8-5) to win the AFC South. (Even if Indianapolis overtakes the Texans, Miami would still need to jump Baltimore, the Chargers or Broncos.)
The Colts, like the Dolphins, also have seven losses and own the tiebreaker with Miami by virtue of their victory against the Dolphins.
Indianapolis has a relatively easy schedule to close the season: at Denver, home to Tennessee, at the Giants, and home to Jacksonville. But expecting the Colts to win out seems improbable.
The Chargers (8-5) would still need to lose two more and the Dolphins would need to win out for Miami to hop Los Angeles. (The Colts also would need to lose once.) Miami would win a tiebreaker against the Chargers, whose final four games (after K.C.) are home to Tampa Bay, home to Denver, at New England and then at Las Vegas.
As for the 8-5 Ravens, Miami would overtake Baltimore if the Dolphins win out, the Colts lose once and the Ravens lose two of their final four (at Giants, Pittsburgh, at Houston, Cleveland). The Dolphins would win the tiebreaker with Baltimore.
▪ That’s 11 TDs and no interceptions for Tua Tagovailoa in the past month. He’s still atop the league in completion percentage (73.8) and third in passer rating (107.4). He has 17 TDs and four interceptions.
Tagovailoa was 6 for 7 for 67 yards and a TD on the game-winning drive in overtime. He now has 15 TDs and one interception since returning from a concussion on Oct. 27.
Let’s be clear: With the running game in neutral and the defense leaking holes, Tagovialoa is the biggest reason the Dolphins have a chance to be a playoff team in the foreseeable future, health provided. He’s not a perfect quarterback, but he’s plenty good enough if they can build a strong enough team around him.
On Sunday, he closed 33 for 47 for 331 yards and two touchdowns.
“Tua has been playing lights out,” said Tyreek Hill, who had 10 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown. “He doesn’t get enough credit for things he does outside of making plays. Me and him had a moment whenever I ran the route the wrong way, he told me exactly how he needed me to run it. He’s been a great leader for this team. Guys around him have got to match it.. It’s got to be every play. Not just when you’re getting the ball.
“When we were down 23-15, everyone knew what was at stake. We knew if we lost, our season was over. We have a lot of great guys who don’t want to end our season. We have the capability to play with a lot of teams in this league.”
▪ What’s most encouraging about Tagovailoa, in our view, is that
A). He has significantly curtailed regrettable, turnover-worthy throws.
B). He played well enough in tough environments against good opponents — Buffalo and Green Bay — while playing very well against everyone else.
“The game he had in Buffalo exorcised some demons for him and I,” Mike McDaniel said. “I don’t think this game would have happened two years ago.
“He’s a naturally gifted quarterback. People gravitate toward him. He makes people better. To be able to play clear minded and let the game come to you. Forty seven pass attempts and zero interceptions, it’s really cool to see.”
▪ McDaniel revealed “there has been a lot of motivated, passionate meetings” with players, “whether it has been led by myself, Frank Smith, Anthony Weaver or by players.”
He said he told players that “it’s not always a bad thing when people say they can’t do stuff” and cited the fact he was 4-foot-10 in seventh grade “and there were a lot of people who said I couldn’t” do something.
▪ Though the Dolphins converted two third/fourth-and-1 situations when they threw, they failed on both third down and fourth down short-yardage situations when they ran, making them 11 for 22 on rushing attempts on third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 this season.
That’s unacceptable, and it leads to the question: Why do the Dolphins keep giving the ball to their lightest back, De’Von Achane, in those situations when they have a bigger, more physical running back on the roster in Jeff Wilson Jr.? That remains my biggest beef with McDaniel.
▪ The running game, which mustered just 2.96 per carry in the previous four games, was even worse, producing 44 yards on 19 carries (2.3 per rush).
Achane mustered just 24 yards on 14 carries.
Running backs shoulder some of the blame, but this appears to be mostly a blocking issue.
Guards Robert Jones and Liam Eichenberg were adequate and serviceable early in the season, but Miami needs to add at least one dominant run-blocking guard this offseason. Right tackle Austin Jackson, who is out for the season with a knee injury, has been sorely missed.
On the positive side, the devilish Eichenberg drew a personal foul penalty by inciting an opposing player for the third time this season (against Jevon Kinlaw.)
The blocking from skill position players generally hasn’t been good enough, either. And an Alec Ingold holding penalty negated a long run.
CBS reported that Raheem Mostert, who has been dealing with a hip injury, expects to play next Sunday at Houston. But he has just 10 carries in the previous four games.
It’s long overdue for McDaniel to split carries between Achane and Mostert, with Wilson getting goal-line work.
▪ One encouraging sign was rookie Patrick Paul’s play when he replaced an injured Terron Armstead in the first quarter.
Paul had allowed sacks in each of the two previous games when he received substantial snaps. But he kept his quarterback clean on Sunday.
“I was not calling plays around him,” McDaniel said. “You know a guy is playing well when you don’t have to adjust your play-calling. It was not too big for him. He has a lot of room to grow in his game, but he was competing play in, play out and was not necessitating extra help.”
McDaniel offered no update on Armstead, who had been playing through a knee injury for weeks before leaving early Sunday.
▪ Playing against a top receiver duo, Jalen Ramsey had his worst game of the year, allowing five completions in the first seven targets against him, for 131 yards.
Kendall Fuller had an uneven game in his first game after missing three with a concussion. He tripped when trying to cover Allen Lazard on an 18-yard completion during the Jets’ late drive when they hit a field goal to briefly go ahead.
Garrett Wilson had seven receptions and 114 yards.
Davante Adams had nine catches for 109 yards and a TD.
▪ The safety play again wasn’t nearly good enough Sunday, and that remains one of the biggest disappointments with this team.
Jevon Holland failed to snag what should have been an easy interception, and there were several communications issues in the secondary on Sunday.
Holland and Jordan Poyer have fewer interceptions this season (zero) than former Dolphins safety Marcus Maye had in his first game with the Chargers (one). And the run support of the safeties hasn’t exactly been great.
At one point, it looked like the Dolphins had two long-term safeties with Holland and Brandon Jones. But Jones left for Denver in free agency, and it’s difficult to envision the Dolphins paying Holland enormous money if he gets a monster offer in free agency.
▪ This was Jaylen Waddle’s second most impactful game of the season; don’t overlook the key 11- and 16-yard receptions late in the first half, setting up Jason Sanders’ 57 yard field goal.
Waddle’s nine catches were his most this season, and his 99 yards were his third most, behind the 144 yards against New England and 109 against Jacksonville.
▪ Credit the Dolphins defense for forcing consecutive three-and-outs after allowing scoring drives of 60, 78, 68 and 70 yards on the Jets’ first four possessions.
Zach Sieler’s two sacks gave him six for the season and 16 in his past 28 games. Beyond Ramsey, you could make the case he’s the most valuable player on this defense.
▪ McDaniel has been bold and daring during parts of his Dolphins career, but not Sunday. He opted for a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the Jets’ 21 in the first half, then punted from the Jets 48 on a fourth-and-3 in the third quarter.
I can understand McDaniel’s squeamishness on fourth-and-short because of his team’s shortcomings in short-yardage.
But beyond using Wilson in those situations, why not try the Wildcat? Or insert Tyler Huntley for a QB sneak on fourth-and-short situations? Or something other than shotgun throws or Achane runs between the tackles?
▪ McDaniel made a good point that Sanders and Malik Washington did not allow big mistakes “to define them.”
Sanders rebounded from a missed extra point to hit a 57-yarder before halftime and the 52-yarder to tie it with four seconds left in regulation.
Washington’s 45-yard kickoff return set up Miami’s game-tying field goal at the end of regulation and compensated for his fumbled punt early in the Green Bay game.
▪ McDaniel said tight end Jonnu Smith — who caught three passes in overtime, including the game winning touchdown after catching none in regulation — sometimes will “remind me of a play” during the game “but it’s constructive.”
He did that in the Indianapolis game.
“I called the play [Sunday], and whether it was a tip or tight window — it was a screen that was incomplete,” McDaniel said. “I know in my back pocket, he will make a play. He said something. I knew where his competitive spirit was at. I knew when push came to shove in crunch time, he would come through because he’s a very resilient individual.”
▪ Quick stuff: In his career, Sanders is now 12 for 13 with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime… The Dolphins have beaten the Jets nine consecutive seasons in Miami…
Per Scorgami, this was the first time an NFL game ever ended with a 32-26 score.
Aaron Rodgers (27 for 339, 339 yards) topped 300 yards passing for the first time in 35 games and finished with a 104 passer rating. The Dolphins entered having allowed opposing quarterbacks to produce an 87.8 passer rating, 12th best defensively in the league.
This story was originally published December 8, 2024 at 5:47 PM.
