UM’s thin-ice playoff path. Cristobal’s reaction, Guidry’s mistake, 10 thoughts after loss
Ten thoughts from Miami’s bitterly disappointing 42-38 loss to Syracuse on Saturday, costing the Canes a berth in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game:
▪ The Canes, who frittered away a 21-0 lead, seemingly have no shot to make the playoffs if Clemson (9-3) beats SMU (11-1) in the ACC Championship game. In that scenario, the Tigers would earn an automatic bid to the playoffs and SMU very likely would get at an large bid.
But if SMU hands Clemson a fourth loss in Charlotte next Saturday night, Miami (10-2) could make something of a case for the playoffs -- albeit a shaky one considering how bad their defense is.
On Saturday evening, ESPN’s computerized projections gave UM a 40 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff.
“This team won 10 football games against some really good opponents, and this last game came all the way down to the wire,” Mario Cristobal said in making UM’s case for the playoffs. “Our two losses are one-possession losses, less than a touchdown. That makes us one of the better teams in the country.”
This would be a scenario for UM to earn an at-large playoff bid: Unless three-loss Texas A&M beats Texas on Saturday night and then beats Georgia in the SEC title game, then the no-brainer SEC playoff qualifiers would be Georgia, Texas and Tennessee. Every other SEC team has at least three losses.
[UPDATE: Texas A&M lost, helping UM].
The Big 10 has four clear-cut playoff teams: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana.
So with Texas A&M losing and out, that’s seven of the 12 teams accounted for above, including the winner of the SEC and Big 10 championship games. Notre Dame and the champs of the Big 12, ACC and highest-ranked Group of 5 conference are four more qualifiers, bringing the total to 11.
So UM, in a scenario with SMU beating Clemson (9-3) next Saturday, would be the only aforementioned remaining ACC, Big Ten or SEC team with only two losses.
In that scenario, the Canes would be competing for one at-large bid with three-loss Alabama, three-loss South Carolina, three-loss Mississippi, four-loss Clemson, the loser of the Big 12 championship game and the second-highest rated Group of 5 conference champion.
Three Big 12 teams entered Saturday night with two losses: Arizona State, which beat Arizona on Saturday, and BYU and Iowa State. All were in contention for the Big 12 title game. No Big 12 team has fewer than two losses.
[UPDATE: Arizona State and Iowa State, who each have two losses, will play in the Big 12 title game. The only other two-loss Big 12 team, BYU, will be among those competing with UM for an at-large bid].
“If they knew what was up, they’d put us in the playoffs,” UM quarterback Cam Ward said. “We are that team. It’s not in our hands anymore, but go look at the stats. We are that team. So you know, every winner’s gotta lose someday.”
▪ We wrote here that this was the chance for the UM coaching staff to change the national narrative that they’re not good enough game day coaches.
Ultimately, they couldn’t.
Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry’s game plan was ill-conceived and his unwillingness to change it dramatically as Syracuse kept scoring was equally confounding and exasperating.
Why would Guidry keep playing man defense all season when UM’s personnel wasn’t good enough?
Why keep leaving cornerbacks on an island when Syracuse was abusing OJ Frederique and Daryl Porter Jr. and Damari Brown, in his brief cameo after a three-month layoff due to injury?
Why have Akheem Mesidor going out in coverage Saturday, and Francisco Mauigoa too often in coverage much of the season? Any why didn’t Cristobal step in and force Guidry to make changes?
“They ran exactly what we thought they were going to run,” Mishael Powell told WQAM.
▪ Frederique was torched all day, an unfortunate end to an otherwise magnificent freshman season. Entering the game, he allowed just 10 completions in 28 targets for 80 yards and an incredible 41.4 passer rating against.
He’s still one of the solutions, despite a tough day. No other UM defensive back exceeded expectations this season.
▪ The Jacolby George reclamation project was a wonderful story until late in the game, when his penchant for losing his cool again doomed Miami, resulting in a 15-yard penalty that pushed Miami back to the Syracuse 23 and essentially foiled the final drive.
“There’s nothing we stress more than making sure poise and ball security,” Cristobal told WQAM of George’s penalty and Xavier Restrepo’s fumble that was returned for a Syracuse touchdown.
“X was just trying to make a play,” Cristobal said. “A game changer. There’s no excuse [for the 15-yard penalty]. I didn’t see the penalty. I don’t know if it was warranted or not. Should never happens, especially in a critical moment like that.”
George caught six passes for 121 yards, but regrettably, the penalties will be the epitaph of his career, including four mindless 15-yard infractions late last season. Cristobal gave him another chance this season and he validated that decision until the final moments of the season’s most important day.
▪ In a game when Miami couldn’t stop Syracuse, Cristobal’s decision to go for a field goal, to make it 42-38, with 3:42 left, seemed puzzling. Predictably, Miami never got the ball back.
The notion of trusting your defense should only apply if your defense has earned trust. This defense hasn’t.
Cristobal said analytics suggested UM should go for the field goal. But analytics don’t factor in how bad your defense is.
The odds seemingly would have been higher for Miami to score a touchdown on fourth down and convert a two-point conversion.
▪ If UM doesn’t make the playoffs, this could have been the final Canes game for Ward, who is considered a first-round pick. Ward finished 25 of 36 for 349 yards and now has 36 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
Ward was UM’s best quarterback in 20 years, since Ken Dorsey guided UM to a national title. If the Canes can’t make the ACC title game with a QB this good, when can they make the ACC title game?
▪ A Jalen Rivers holding penalty on a long Damien Martinez run was a “horrendous” call, as WQAM’s Joe Zagacki noted.
But that penalty by Rivers and an ensuing sack permitted by Markel Bell foiled one drive. UM had success this season essentially sharing time between left guard Matthew McCoy and left tackle Bell, while moving Bell between left tackle and left guard.
▪ Where was the Rueben Bain who was supposed to dominate college football this season? He mustered only one tackle all day and wasn’t a difference maker down the stretch this season.At least Tyler Baron shook out of a two-month slump with an early sack and a couple of hurries.
This ballyhooed defensive line produced only two sacks - one by Baron and one by Mesidor.
For UM to overcome this dreadful secondary, this defensive line needed to dominate. That never happened in conference play.
▪ It was a bittersweet day for the freshmen. Frederique and Elija Lofton (who didn’t turn around quickly enough to catch a TD pass) had days to forget. Jordan Lyle converted a big third down in the fourth quarter but had just five yards on three carries. Linebacker Bobby Pruitt forced and recovered a fumble – perhaps UM’s best defensive play of the day.
▪ Cristobal’s reaction afterward, to WQAM: “They played better than we did. We should be able to close out a game like that. We all should be able to take accountablility, starting with myself....
“Several [season] goals [were met]. The goal of playing and winning the ACC is where we felt short. Extremely painful. Brutally difficult. We’ve got to own it.”
This story was originally published November 30, 2024 at 7:52 PM.
