Examining consequences if Dolphins jettison any of top players after season. What to know
.JPG "El gerente general de los Miami Dolphins, Chris Grier, a la izquierda, y el entrenador en jefe, Mike McDaniel, a la derecha, responden preguntas durante una conferencia de prensa en las instalaciones de entrenamiento del equipo de fútbol de la NFL, el lunes 16 de enero de 2023 en Miami Gardens, Florida.")
For Dolphins fans who are fed up by another season on a road to nowhere, there might be a temptation to blow up the roster and start another rebuild next spring.
Here’s why that’s neither realistic nor sensible:
▪ In the case of several of the team’s biggest stars and best players, the dead money cap hits — and inability to replace them with similarly skilled players — should deter the Dolphins from jettisoning them.
With receiver Tyreek Hill, there’s a $27.7 million cap hit in 2025 if he’s on the team. But there’s an even bigger cap hit for Miami — $28.3 million — if he’s traded before June 1. (It’s a $12.7 million Dolphins 2025 cap hit if he’s traded after June 1.) What’s more, his $27.7 million salary for 2025 is fully guaranteed.
And at 30, Hill isn’t going to land a treasure trove of draft picks. So why trade your best player and then stomach a big dead money cap hit after doing it?
▪ With outside linebacker Bradley Chubb, even though none of his $19.4 million 2025 salary is guaranteed, his $29.3 million cap number for 2025 drops only to $27.4 million (on Miami’s 2025 cap) if he’s cut or traded before June 1. (It’s a $9.1 million 2025 dead money cap hit for Miami if he’s cut after June 1, but the Dolphins couldn’t use any of that cap space when top free agents traditionally sign in March.)
The Dolphins, who are tied for 31st in the league in sacks with only 10, badly need Chubb’s pass rush skills. So why trade your most accomplished pass rusher (Calais Campbell aside) and then clog your cap with dead money? It wouldn’t make sense.
▪ In a league where cornerbacks are prioritized, parting with Jalen Ramsey would be particularly nonsensical.
Not only is his $24.2 million salary fully guaranteed for 2025, but his reasonable cap hit of $16.7 million would jump to $44.2 million on Miami’s 2025 cap if he’s traded before June 1. And it’s foolish to trade one of your three best players, at a need area, for draft picks that might not materialize into anybody good.
▪ With left tackle Terron Armstead, the issue isn’t cap savings, but how diminished the Dolphins line would be without him.
Armstead has played at an elite level, allowing only six pressures and no sacks in 227 pass-blocking snaps.
Pro Football Focus rates him first among all tackles — first as a run blocker and ninth as a pass blocker.
His $22.1 million cap hit for 2025 would drop only to $18.5 million (on Miami’s 2025 cap) if he’s cut before June 1 and $7.8 million if he’s released after June 1.
None of his $13.3 million salary for 2025 is guaranteed. But if the Dolphins ask him to take a pay cut for a second year in a row, why would he accept that after playing at a high level this season? He could opt to retire instead.
So even if the Dolphins move on from Armstead — which is quite possible — it would be difficult to imagine Patrick Paul, at least initially, playing at Armstead’s lofty level.
What about trading Armstead? He didn’t ask for a trade before this week’s trade deadline. And the dead money cap hit for doing so would be $18.5 million on Miami’s 2025 cap if he’s dealt before June 1. And Miami wouldn’t get nearly similar value back because of Armstead’s age (33) and injury history.
▪ Moving on from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa because of health concerns is totally unrealistic and impossible to defend if done this upcoming offseason. He’s due a guaranteed $50 million next season, and his $39.4 million 2025 cap hit would jump to $83.6 million on Miami’s 2025 cap if he’s cut before June 1, which isn’t happening.
A trade would be similarly improbable; in that scenario, Miami would carry a $33.6 million dead money hit in 2025 for trading him before June 1, $8.4 million for trading him after June 1.
▪ What about Jaylen Waddle? From a purely football standpoint, he’s perhaps the one player on this list where a trade could be justified, if it helps the Dolphins land a high draft pick or a high-end veteran at a key defensive position.
But even a Waddle trade isn’t helpful financially, because his modest $8.1 million cap number for 2025 would swell to $15.1 million in 2025 dead money if Miami trades him before June 1. A post-June 1 Waddle trade would lower his 2025 Dolphins dead money hit to $3.8 million, but a player acquired for him would obviously have a cap hit, too.
So what’s the logical step to fix this mess?
Our advice: Again restructure the contracts of several of the players that have enormous cap hits. Then save cap space by cutting less important players. And do a better job of filling needs around them.
The biggest reason the Dolphins have just $4.4 million in available 2025 cap space is that seven players have 2025 cap hits topping $13 million, with four of those above $22 million:
Tagovailoa ($39.4 million cap hit), Chubb ($29.3 million), Hill ($27.7 million), Armstead ($22.1 million), Ramsey ($16.7 million), right tackle Austin Jackson ($13.8 million) and linebacker Jaelan Phillips ($13.2 million).
Of those seven, only Chubb and Armstead have no guaranteed money due next season. All of Phillips’ $13.2 million salary is guaranteed, and $5 million of Jackson’s $10.9 million salary is guaranteed, making his return very likely.
The Dolphins need to redo some of those deals to bring down their cap numbers and make cap-saving moves around the edges. For instance, cutting tight end Durham Smythe cuts his cap number from $4.8 million to $1.4 million with a post- June 1 designation.
Punter Jake Bailey’s 2025 cap hit drops from $2.5 million to $550,000 if he’s cut. And there are other ways to save cap space.
And whether it’s Chris Grier or another general manager making personnel decisions, Miami must do a better job filling holes at inside linebacker, nose tackle, backup quarterback and No. 3 receiver.
They also must decide whether to pay big money to a safety, Jevon Holland, who has had durability issues. The $19.5 million franchise tag for safeties next season would be too steep. So for Holland to stay, it likely would need to be part of a multiyear contract with a modest initial cap hit.
If the Dolphins surprisingly part with Grier and hire a new GM, he might prefer to blow it up and start a rebuild like the Dolphins embarked on in 2019. That would be a mistake. This core needs at least one more season together to see if better decisions around the margins and better health can catapult them to new heights.
The Dolphins have too many cap complications — and too many good players (Tagovailoa, Hill, Waddle, Ramsey, Zach Sieler, talented running backs, others) — to justify a full-scale rebuild or tank.
The answer isn’t blowing it up, but doing a better job on value free agent signings and the draft. For example, if Channing Tindall had been a productive third-round pick, Miami wouldn’t need to be spending millions at inside linebacker.
The past three drafts so far have produced only two players who are playing well this season — running backs De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright. And when you can’t find cheap talent in the draft, that’s extremely damaging on a roster that employs as many high-salaried players as the Dolphins do.
QUARTERBACK LEAVES
The Jacksonville Jaguars poached quarterback C.J. Beathard from the Dolphins’ practice squad and signed him to their 53-man roster. That leaves Miami with just two quarterbacks under contract: Tua Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson, who are both on the 53-man roster. A practice squad QB figures to be added.
Tyler Huntley remains on injured reserve with a shoulder issue and cannot be activated until he has sat out two more games.
This story was originally published November 6, 2024 at 2:44 PM.
