What the record shows about Haslem’s Herro/Robinson idea and Spoelstra’s differing view
When Udonis Haslem surprised Heat officials in May by espousing the upside of replacing Tyler Herro with Duncan Robinson in the starting lineup, it assuredly offered affirmation to the fans who have suggested such a move on social media.
But coach Erik Spoelstra, who has infinite respect and appreciation for Haslem, clearly doesn’t agree.
All indications are that Spoelstra will begin the season with Herro starting and Robinson coming off the bench, part of a new starting group (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Herro, Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic) that has outscored opponents by 12 points during preseason.
Haslem made the case for starting Robinson multiple times this summer, including this comment on ESPN:
“Tyler’s role for us, and the best role for him, is to probably be a sixth man. That’s taking nothing away from what Tyler does as a basketball player. But for our chemistry, we are better when we got Duncan Robinson in the starting lineup, making plays, being that trigger for us and spraying and creating for other guys.
“Tyler can come off in that second group, doesn’t have to worry about getting other guys involved. He can just play basketball, score and be who he is.”
But Spoelstra prefers to keep Herro as a starter. It’s not like Herro ‘deserves’ to be benched; there hasn’t been an egregious erosion in his play. And whether Herro starts or not, he would still be on the floor with Butler and Adebayo in the fourth quarter anyway.
So what does the data say?
Metrics support Spoelstra’s decision to stick with Herro, who has had a strong preseason. In fact, there is nothing numerically in the past two years that suggest starting Robinson alongside Butler and Adebayo would be appreciably better than playing Herro with Butler and Adebayo.
In fact, the Heat has been better with the Herro-Butler-Adebayo troika than the Robinson-Butler-Adebayo trio during the past two seasons.
Last season, the Heat outscored teams by 3.8 points per 100 possessions with Herro, Butler and Adebayo playing together.
With Robinson, Butler and Adebayo on the floor, Miami was a plus-2.8 points per 100 possessions. After the All-Star break, the Robinson/Butler/Adebayo group was outscored by 1.1 points per 100, compared with a plus-0.9 during the limited Herro/Butler/Adebayo minutes after the All-Star break.
In 2023-23, the Butler/Adebayo/Herro lineup outscored teams by 7.2 points per 100 possessions. The Butler/Adebayo/Robinson group was a modest plus-0.9 per 100.
The points per 100 possessions was nearly equal last season when Herro played with Butler and Adebayo (112.3) as when Robinson did (112.6). Two seasons ago, the Herro/Butler/Adebayo lineups scored nearly four points more per 100 possessions than the Butler/Adebayo/Robinson lineup did.
(For those new to modern age NBA metrics, anything per 100 possessions is a generally accepted measuring stick.)
What if Terry Rozier is factored into the decision?
The Heat scored 113.3 points per 100 possessions when Butler, Rozier and Adebayo played with Herro, compared with 109.6 with Butler, Rozier, Adebayo and Robinson.
Neither quartet was great collectively, in part because chemistry takes time to develop and Rozier understandably needed time to find his way while trying to blend in.
The Herro/Rozier/Adebayo/Butler quartet was outscored by 0.8 points per 100 possessions, compared with -0.5 for the Robinson foursome.
The Heat’s problem isn’t that Herro is starting ahead of Robinson.
The problem is the one staring everyone in the face: Miami’s top three players last season did not measure up with the top three players on the best teams in the league, with Herro missing half the season and Butler’s offensive numbers declining, including a nearly three point drop in scoring and a four point drop in shooting percentage.
The fact that Butler, Adebayo and Herro lineups outscored teams by just 3.8 points per 100 possessions in 27 games together last season — and averaged only 112.3 points per 100 possessions when they were collectively on the court — is put in unsettling perspective when you consider that number for other top threes.
For Denver’s Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., it was plus-16.3 points per 100 and 126.3 points per 100.
For Phoenix’s Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, it’s plus-7.0 and 120.5.
For the Clippers’ former trio of Paul George (who left for Philadelphia), James Harden and Kawhi Leonard, it was plus-10.1 and 121 points.
For Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton, it’s plus-16.9 and 125.1.
For the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis, it’s plus-11.1 and 120.4.
For OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, it’s plus-12 and 119.6.
So the Heat’s big issue isn’t a Herro starting problem. It’s a health problem and overall talent deficit problem compared to teams the Heat is battling for seeding.
For those who say the solution is trading Herro, here’s my response: What would be the wisdom in selling low on a 20-points-per-game scorer coming off an injury-plagued season when the Heat wouldn’t get equal value in return? Herro has a skill the Heat badly needs: offensive creativity, shooting and the ability to create his own shot.
The Heat remains committed to seeing it through with this group, unless it can acquire an All-NBA player in return, or unless everything implodes before the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
This story was originally published October 17, 2024 at 10:40 AM.
