The alternate universe of the Terry Rozier trade and what it means. And Heat nuggets
A six-pack of Heat notes on a Tuesday:
▪ When the Heat acquired Terry Rozier in January, the rationale was understandable: Miami wanted to add scoring punch to a team that desperately needed it.
The deal drew no criticism in this space at the time, even though trading a first-round pick to Charlotte left Miami with the inability to trade any more than one future first-round pick (2030 or 2031, but not both).
Months later, some have asked whether the alternative path would have been more prudent. The view here: There’s no evidence that it would have been the better approach.
With Rozier, the Heat has a capable point guard under contract at reasonable numbers the next two seasons ($24.9 million and $26.6 million). He averaged 21.1 points and 19.8 points the past two seasons and made several clutch shots in his three months with the Heat. There’s value in that, especially for a team that was bottom five in the league in offense last season.
On the flip side, the trade also left Miami with little wiggle room under the punitive second apron — enough, ultimately, only to re-sign Kevin Love, Haywood Highsmith and Thomas Bryant (plus draft picks Kel’El Ware and Pelle Larsson) and add guard Alec Burks at the minimum.
So what would have happened if the Heat had simply allowed Kyle Lowry’s contract to come off the books and not traded him and a first-round pick for Rozier?
In that world, Miami’s current payroll (including the players added/re-signed) would be $162 million, not $187 million. That’s well above the $140.9 million cap, meaning the Heat would have had no cap space this offseason even if it had simply allowed Lowry’s contract to expire. So the Heat would have been unable to sign Paul George or any top free agents into cap space.
In that scenario, the Heat could not have accommodated DeMar DeRozan’s full salary request (he’s getting $23 million from the Kings this season) because Miami would have needed a sign-and-trade, and that would have hard capped the Heat at $178.1 million. That would have precluded Miami from signing a point guard or re-signing Highsmith.
Either to remain under the second apron or in general, there’s not a single free agent who has signed at a number that Miami could accommodate that would have been better than Rozier. Remember, Caleb Martin rejected the Heat’s five year, $65 million offer, and it’s doubtful Miami would have gone higher.
In this no-Rozier alternate universe, Miami would have had a full $12.8 million midlevel exception, but it could not have used that if it had done a sign-and-trade for DeRozan. And nobody who has received money in that exception range — Derrick Jones Jr., Kyle Anderson, Naji Marshall — is better than Rozier.
There would have been two positives for not making the Rozier trade:
1). If the lottery-protected 2027 pick hadn’t been traded to Charlotte, Miami would have been permitted to trade a first-round pick in 2028 or 2029 and would have had two first-round picks to offer in trades this offseason (2028 and 2030 or 2029 and 2031). Instead, the Heat can offer only one first-round pick this summer (2030 or 2031, but not both).
2). Unless the Heat gets below the $178.1 million first apron (highly unlikely), it won’t be able to sign any buyout players earning more than $12.8 million. If Miami remained below the apron, it could have signed any player bought out next season.
But No. 1 hasn’t been an issue because the extra first-round pick, so far, wouldn’t have been the difference in acquiring the only very good, in-his-prime player traded this offseason (Mikal Bridges). Whether No. 2 becomes a factor remains to be seen.
Bottom line: With Rozier now cleared after a late-season neck injury, the Rozier trade still makes sense in our view, because A). the Heat would have had no cap space even if Lowry had come off the books and B). sign-and-trades hard cap teams at the first apron, meaning if Miami had acquired DeRozan, there would have been no money for a point guard.
Heat general manager Andy Elisburg — in an interview with Sirius XM this week — made clear that the Rozier trade was always going to make certain other moves unrealistic this summer.
“Our free agent move this year was the Terry [Rozier] move,” Elisburg said. “We just decided to do it early. Probably took us out of being able to do something with the midlevel, with sign-and-trades because of the apron rules that prevent that, which we knew when we made the move that it was one or the other.”
The Heat had the flexibility to match Philadelphia’s four-year, $35 million deal with Martin, but Martin’s camp never gave Miami that opportunity. Martin could have made considerably more money with that same deal with the Heat because unlike South Florida, Philadelphia has city and state taxes.
Per ESPN, Martin will make an additional $1.2 million this season if he plays in at least 67 games and the 76ers win 49 games and then reach the second round of the playoffs.
▪ In Alec Burks, the Heat added one of the best value shooters in the league at the minimum. Defensively, results have been mixed.
In Detroit last season, Burks allowed the player he was guarding to shoot 48.8 percent, compared with 46.5 percent overall. In 2023-23 with the Pistons, Burks allowed opposing players to shoot 48.4 percent against him – also too high.
For the Knicks after a midseason trade earlier this year, Burks’ shooting percentage against, in a much smaller sample size, was 44.4.
Controlling dribble penetrations has been a challenge for the Heat in recent years.
▪ Burks’ clutch shooting wasn’t very good last season. He shot 6 for 23 from the field (for Detroit and New York) during the NBA’s definition of clutch time — the final five minutes with a margin of five points or fewer. He shot 4 for 14 on three-pointers in clutch time.
▪ If the Heat can’t make a trade to improve this offseason, we’ve suggested making a lateral move in September simply to change the mix of this team. But I would not expect the Heat to do that. The philosophy remains making a trade only if it improves the roster.
▪ When Thomas Bryant opted to become a free agent on June 30, Bryant said the Heat never promised that it would re-sign him to the minimum if he couldn’t find a better opportunity elsewhere. Miami simply saw value in having established center depth on the roster...
Similarly, Kevin Love wasn’t promised a two-year, $8.2 million deal when he opted out of a one-year, $4 million deal. This was a case of the Heat believing that he will be effective for two more seasons, based on his productive play last season. Besides his spacing and shooting and rebounding, Miami also values his leadership skills.
Love’s 13.2 rebounds per 36 minutes last season were his highest since 2018-19. His 4.5 assists per 36 minutes were the second highest of his career. And his 18.9 points per 36 minutes were his second-highest in four years.
▪ Quick stuff: Isaiah Stevens, the undrafted guard from Colorado State, continues to make a case for a two-way roster spot. His 9.0 assist average is second-highest so far in the Las Vegas Summer League. Because Stevens is signed to an exhibit 10 contract, another team cannot steal him from Miami.....
Damian Lillard and Suns ownership were among those who courted Highsmith in free agency... Though the Heat was linked to Tyus Jones, we heard Miami’s interest in him was primarily strong in January, when the Heat spoke with Washington about a trade before ultimately pursuing Rozier. Though Jones remains a free agent, there’s no realistic pathway for Miami to acquire him.
This story was originally published July 16, 2024 at 12:24 PM.
