Areas where Tagovailoa measured up to MVPs and where he didn’t. And a lingering question
Fourth of a four-part series on Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
In December, when the Dolphins’ offense was rolling and Tua Tagovailoa was in the MVP discussion, ESPN flashed a graphic depicting how his numbers compared with the three quarterbacks who won the past five MVP awards.
At the time, it was all very favorable to Tagovailoa. His numbers were superior to MVPs in several key areas.
After a disappointing end to an otherwise good season, we were curious how Tagovailoa’s numbers stacked up against recent MVPs.
The answer: In three often-cited areas, they stacked up very well. In three other key areas, not well enough.
If you average the MVP seasons of Patrick Mahomes (2018 and 2022), Aaron Rodgers (2020 and 2021) and Lamar Jackson (2019), here are the areas where Tagovailoa was essentially as good or better:
▪ Completion percentage: Those three QBs completed 67.8 percent of their passes during their MVP seasons. Tagovailoa was at 69.3 this season.
▪ Passing yards per game: Jackson, Mahomes and Rodgers averaged 273.6 yards passing during their MVP seasons. Tagovailoa was at 272 per game this season.
▪ Passing yards per attempt: Those three MVP QBs averaged 8.1 passing yards per attempt in their MVP seasons. Tagovailoa averaged 8.2 yards per attempt this season.
Besides the ability to improvise and create something out of nothing, here were the three areas where Tagovailoa didn’t measure up to the recent NFL MVPs statistically over the course of a season:
▪ Passing touchdowns per game: Rodgers, Mahomes and Jackson averaged 2.6 TD passes per game in their MVP seasons. Tagovailoa averaged 1.7.
▪ Passer rating: Those three QBs had a cumulative 112.8 passer rating in those five seasons; Rodgers was a 121.5 in 2020.
Tagovailoa finished this season at 101.1, down from 105.5 last season. That was partly a byproduct of throwing 14 interceptions, tied for the fourth most in the league.
▪ Winning: Tagovailoa went 11-7 in the regular season and playoffs. Including the postseason in their MVP seasons, Mahomes was 13-5 and 17-3 (including a Super Bowl title); Rodgers was 14-4 and 13-4; and Jackson 13-3.
Similar to Tagovailoa this year, Rodgers and Jackson each lost in his first playoff game of an MVP season and neither played particularly well in those games.
If you missed this in Part 3 of our series, this is the Tagovailoa 2023 statistical reality that will stick to him until it changes:
▪ Against opponents with winning records, Tagovailoa has eight touchdowns, seven interceptions with an 80.8 rating, and Miami was 1-6. He averaged 228 passing yards in those games.
▪ Against all other teams, he had 22 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 110.8 rating, and Miami was 10-1 in those games. He averaged 293 passing yards in those games.
THE 2.5-SECOND QUESTION
One of the widely discussed concerns with Tagovailoa is how he fares when he’s not throwing quickly or in rhythm or is forced to improvise.
Pro Football Focus has a metric showing how quarterbacks do when they have 2.5 seconds or more to throw. It’s not the perfect statistic to measure “how QBs do when plays are breaking down,” because sometimes that can be a byproduct of offensive lines giving the QB extended protection. But it does offer some insight.
In Tagovailoa’s case, he had an 87.6 passer rating in those “2.5 or more seconds” instances, which was 14th among quarterbacks who started at least 10 games. The top five: Brock Purdy (111.6), Jackson (110.6), Dak Prescott (108.4), C.J. Stroud (104.3) and Russell Wilson (101).
Tagovailoa’s 203 passing attempts with that amount of time were 19th most in the league and he had 11 TDs and 9 interceptions (tied for fourth most in the league) and took 23 sacks on those plays.
By contrast, Tagovailoa had a 105.4 passer rating — behind only Purdy and Justin Herbert — when he had less than 2.5 seconds to throw. He had 19 TDs, six interceptions and took only eight sacks when he got the ball off in less than 2.5 seconds.
His 395 throws in less than 2.5 seconds were most in the league, 31 more than Trevor Lawrence, who was No. 2 on the list.
So the metrics bear out what was clear to most who watched: When he’s in rhythm and releasing the ball quickly, he’s usually very good. When he’s not, he’s an average quarterback or worse.
THE BIG QUESTION
The question is whether Tagovailoa’s accuracy can ultimately overcome his struggles making something out of nothing, a skill that Mahomes and Josh Allen and Jackson possess because of their elusiveness and rushing skills.
“What are we doing if you’re Tua?” ESPN’s Marcus Spears said. “You’ve played a lot of football. I get worried when there’s a glitch in the computer, when the picture is not turning up how they imagined it being painted, when the play is called and when the play starts [and it breaks down].
“Where do you go after that? That has been my issue all season long. Miami Dolphins fans have been pissed off at me about it. They’ve told me, ‘Look at the numbers!’ When I’m looking at it from the defensive standpoint, when I can get Tua to pull the ball down, when I can get him to stick to how this play was drawn up computer wise, that’s the only thing he’s going to do successfully.
“The polar opposite is what Josh Allen was able to go beyond X’s and O’s on that [late] drive... You need that in the playoffs to have success.”
And that’s the ultimate issue with Tagovailoa: Can enough plays not break down, can the protection hold up well enough, where he can win a playoff game without the the ‘ad-lib magic’ skill?
Here’s Part 1 of the series on the pros and cons of a contract extension for Tagovailoa.
Here’s Part 2 with metrics and other measurements that reflect some of Tagovailoa’s strengths and shortcomings.
Here’s Part 3 with commentators weighing in about Tagovailoa and whether to give him a contract extension.
This story was originally published January 30, 2024 at 3:51 PM.
