A look at Dolphins’ first-round opponent in every scenario. And time set for Miami-Buffalo
The Dolphins’ regular season finale will get a marquee stage, with much riding on the outcome.
The Dolphins and Bills will play the final game of the 2023-24 NFL regular season, at 8:20 p.m. on Sunday night on NBC, at Hard Rock Stadium.
And the Dolphins’ path is now clear:
Win on Sunday, and they will be the AFC East champions and the No. 2 seed and would host two playoff games, presuming they can win the first.
Lose on Sunday, and the Dolphins will be the No. 6 seed and need to win three road games to make the Super Bowl.
Who would the Dolphins play in the first round in either case?
A look at all of the scenarios:
▪ If the Dolphins (11-5) win on Sunday, they would be the second seed and play host to Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs if the Steelers win at Baltimore on Saturday and the Jaguars beat the Titans. The Bills would be out of the playoffs in that scenario.
In that scenario, the Steelers would clinch the seventh seed. The second and seventh seeds meet in the first round; only the top seed gets a first round bye.
The Ravens already have clinched the AFC’s top seed and it’s unclear if they will play quarterback Lamar Jackson or their other starters next week against Pittsburgh.
▪ If the Dolphins win on Sunday, they would be the second seed and play host to Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs if either 1) the Steelers lose at Baltimore and Jacksonville wins at Tennessee or 2) the Steelers win and the Titans beat Jacksonville. Both of these scenarios presume that Indianapolis and Houston do not tie in their matchup.
In this scenario, the Bills would be assured of the No. 7 seed and Dolphins would end up hosting the Bills on consecutive weekends.
Needing to beat Buffalo two weeks in a row would be quite a challenge, considering the Bills have won four in a row and are two-point favorites to win in Miami on Sunday night.
If all AFC South teams win next weekend, the Colts-Texans winner would jump the Bills for the No. 6 seed, if Buffalo loses, because of a superior conference record.
▪ If the Dolphins win on Sunday, they would be the second seed and play host to Jacksonville in the first round of the playoffs if the Titans beat the Jaguars and the Ravens beat the Steelers.
In this scenario, it would not matter if the Colts beat the Texans or the Texans beat the Colts in Indianapolis. Regardless, the winner of that game would win the AFC South and the Jaguars would be the seventh seed if they lose and the Steelers lose. Buffalo would be the sixth seed in this scenario.
▪ If the Dolphins lose on Sunday, they would be the sixth seed and open the playoffs at Kansas City.
The Bills and Dolphins would finish the season with the same record if Buffalo beats Miami, but the Bills would win the tiebreaker and win the AFC East by virtue of having swept the season series, in this scenario.
Even if the Chiefs lose at the Chargers, Kansas City would own a tiebreaker over the AFC South champion Jaguars or Texans or Colts.
If the Jaguars or Texans win the division, the Chiefs would win the tiebreaker based on better conference record.
If the Colts win the division, the Chiefs would win the tiebreaker based on record against common opponents.
That’s why Kansas City would be the third seed and play host to the Dolphins to open the playoffs if Miami loses to Buffalo.
If this is Miami’s fate, the Dolphins - barring upsets - would need to win in Kansas City, then win in Baltimore and then win in Buffalo to advance to the Super Bowl.
Even if Cleveland loses to Cincinnati on Sunday, the fifth-seeded Browns would win a tiebreaker over the Dolphins because of a superior conference record. That’s why Miami is assured of finishing as the sixth seed if the Dolphins lose to Buffalo.
FULL WEEK 18 SCHEDULE
SATURDAY, JAN. 6, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens | 4:30p | ESPN/ABC |
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 8:15p | ESPN/ABC |
Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | 1:00p | FOX |
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals | 1:00p | CBS |
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | 1:00p | FOX |
New York Jets at New England Patriots | 1:00p | FOX |
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | 1:00p | CBS |
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans | 1:00p | CBS |
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | 4:25p | FOX |
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | 4:25p | CBS |
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25p | FOX |
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers | 4:25p | CBS |
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants | 4:25p | CBS |
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers | 4:25p | FOX |
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders | 4:25p | FOX |
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins | 8:20p | NBC |
This story was originally published December 31, 2023 at 11:08 PM.
