Straight talk, and who’s to blame, on Dolphins offense that again shrunk vs. a good team
September ended with the Dolphins hanging 70 points on Denver and observers asking whether this would become one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history.
The season ended with this Dolphins offense again coming up woefully short against a formidable opponent.
The Dolphins mustered just seven points on 11 possessions in Saturday’s dismal 26-7 playoff loss at Kansas City.
And that shouldn’t have surprised anyone who has mostly suffered through six previous games of underwhelming Dolphins offense against playoff teams, only one of which was a win (narrowly, against Dallas).
Here are the final point totals, on offense, against the playoff teams on Miami’s schedule this season: 20 against Buffalo, 10 against Philadelphia, 14 against Kansas City, 22 against Dallas, 19 against Baltimore, 14 against Buffalo and 7 against the Chiefs on Saturday.
The offense was so lame and tepid on Saturday that Miami opened 0 for 7 on third downs and finished 1 for 12.
Any team that fashions itself a Super Bowl contender must be able to win a shootout — or come close to it — against teams with great quarterbacks.
The Dolphins have displayed no ability to do that this season. Even 24 points against a good team has been an insurmountable threshold for Miami.
And considering the presence of an All-Pro receiver (Tyreek Hill), two other top-100 players (Terron Armstead and Jaylen Waddle) and two of the fleetest running backs in football, the Dolphins’ offensive work against strong competition has been an indictment on this team, this quarterback and the offensive coaching staff.
“If I woke up after a game like this, I’d puke on the floor,” Dolphins broadcaster Kim Bokamper said.
The Dolphins can try to comfort themselves by reminding that Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards, and the Dolphins were second behind Dallas in points per game. Never have statistics felt more hollow.
Here are the raw, sobering numbers:
The Dolphins this season, including the playoffs, had 71 offensive possessions in their seven games against playoff teams.
Only 12 of those 71 possessions ended in touchdowns, while 27 ended in punts, 10 on turnovers, 12 on downs, eight with field goals and two when halves ended.
So it was no surprise that Miami went 1-6 in those games, including three consecutive demoralizing losses (to Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City) to end their season.
So who’s to blame? Let’s start here:
▪ Tagovailoa is an excellent quarterback against average and poor teams and usually a mediocre one against good teams; we have seen enough of a sample size where that conclusion doesn’t feel like a rush to judgment.
The Dolphins better hope that miraculously changes, because there’s no viable, realistically obtainable alternative at the position, at least in the next year.
Tagovailoa had an 88 rating or worse in five of Miami’s seven games against playoff teams this season. As perspective, 27 quarterbacks had a passer rating of 88 or higher this season.
He threw seven interceptions in those seven games, delivered too many throws that were high or behind receivers, missed on two potential TD throws in the first K.C. game and couldn’t do nearly enough to sustain drives.
His performance the past three games — a 71.9 passer rating against Baltimore, 62.7 against Buffalo and 63.9 against K.C. on Saturday — create serious questions about whether the Dolphins should invest $250 million in Tagovailoa long-term or play out next season on his $23.1 million fifth-year option. In other words, basically delaying a decision for a year.
Perhaps Tagovailoa can become more accurate and efficient against good defenses; he will likely get another chance next season.
The problem is he lacks the athleticism or escapability to make something out of nothing or consistently make defenses pay if they bottle up the play called for him.
Tagovailoa, incidentally, is now 10-11 in December and January games.
Before late garbage time Saturday, the Tagovailoa-led offense entered the fourth quarter averaging less than 3 yards per play in the 34 plays excluding the 53-yard TD throw to Hill.
▪ Miami’s most explosive playmakers (Hill, Waddle and De’Von Achane) touched the ball on only seven of Miami’s first 26 plays. That’s primarily the fault of McDaniel, whose play-calling on Saturday lacked the creative flair that we have seen much of this season.
Waddle had just one catch for 17 yards in the first three quarters. Achane had only nine touches and mustered just 30 yards.
And McDaniel mistakenly (and unsuccessfully) threw on third-and-2 and fourth-and-2 after four solid runs by Raheem Mostert in the first half. This was a case of the coach out-thinking himself. It isn’t the first time we have seen that from McDaniel.
During a news conference exchange with the always affable McDaniel last week, I cited the Dolphins offensive ineffectiveness against good teams and asked if he intends to continue doing what they have been doing — with the hope they do it better — or if he needs to try something new, whether it’s more hurry up offense, more gimmick plays or something that he hasn’t used in his playbook this season.
McDaniel implied he was more comfortable with continuing to do what they have been doing, with the hope of better execution.
For a seventh time against a playoff team this season, that didn’t work.
NBC’s Chris Simms said Miami’s offense has become too predictable against good teams, often running when teams play two safeties deep, often passing otherwise. That’s not always the case, but stout defenses clearly have a handle on how to defend this team.
▪ Hill bobbled and couldn’t complete a TD catch against Baltimore, then couldn’t make what could have been a game-tying TD catch late in the Buffalo game.
▪ The third through sixth receivers generally couldn’t generate enough separation. Cedrick Wilson Jr., Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft had some good moments this season, but more is needed from the secondary receiver options. The Chase Claypool experiment yielded nothing.
▪ The offensive line wasn’t as good against good teams — hardly a surprise. Right tackle Austin Jackson allowed two sacks in the past three weeks. At center, Connor Williams’ run blocking was badly missed since his season-ending ACL injury against Tennessee.
▪ There were too many self-inflicted errors, including Wilson Jr.’s third down illegal formation penalty that essentially foiled a first half drive.
▪ Miami was the only AFC team that didn’t get a touchdown reception from a tight end this season. Durham Smythe is competent and reliable, but a big, skilled receiving tight end would have helped when Hill and Waddle were bottled up.
The Dolphins were missing six key defensive players on Saturday, but here’s what’s disturbing about the long-term future:
Aside from the excellence of Williams and the good work of early season starter Isaiah Wynn, this otherwise was Miami’s offense at full strength.
And the lack of offensive punch in seven games against worthy teams leaves the resounding conclusion that they’re simply not good enough to win anything meaningful in January.
This story was originally published January 13, 2024 at 11:33 PM.
