After Chiefs loss, explaining Dolphins’ seeding scenarios and potential playoff opponent
With two games remaining in the regular season, the playoff-bound Dolphins have a good chance to finish as the AFC’s first or second seed but also could fall all the way down to the sixth seed.
The Dolphins got help Monday with Las Vegas’ upset win in Kansas City. That means this: If Miami wins one of its final two games (at Baltimore, home to Buffalo), Miami is assured of finishing no lower than the No. 2 seed. And that’s important, because the No. 2 seed gets at least two playoff home games, as long as it wins the first.
Securing the coveted top seed means needing just two playoff wins, both at home, to advance to the Super Bowl.
Falling to the sixth seed means opening the playoffs on the road, likely against Kansas City.
Miami -- which clinched a playoff spot with its 22-20 win against Dallas on Sunday -- can finish no lower than the sixth seed. Only division champions open the playoffs at home, with the top overall seed earning a first-round bye.
Where things stand for the 11-4 Dolphins entering the Christmas games:
▪ How do the Dolphins win the AFC East?
One of three things needs to happen: A Dolphins win on Sunday in Baltimore (1 p.m., CBS) or a Dolphins win against visiting Buffalo in Week 18 or a New England upset win in Buffalo next Sunday.
Any of those three would clinch Miami’s first AFC East title since 2008 and allow the Dolphins to open the playoffs at home.
▪ How do the Dolphins claim the No. 1 seed?
Winning the final two games would accomplish that. There are no No. 1 seed scenarios for Miami that don’t require winning at Baltimore.
But if the Dolphins win at Baltimore and lose against Buffalo, the Dolphins would need a Baltimore loss (to the 49ers on Christmas night or home against Pittsburgh) to claim the top seed, and a Cleveland loss.
If the Ravens lose to the 49ers on Monday night, Miami would clinch the top seed with a win at Baltimore and a Cleveland loss at home against the visiting Jets on Thursday.
▪ If the Dolphins lose at Baltimore, but beat the Bills at Hard Rock Stadium, then what happens?
Miami would win the AFC East and be the second seed in that scenario. The Dolphins would then host the seventh seed to open the playoffs.
▪ What are the chances of Miami winning the division and then needing to play Buffalo for the second consecutive weekend at home to open the playoffs?
It’s possible if the Dolphins win the AFC East, but Buffalo likely would need to finish as the seventh seed for that to happen in this scenario.
Buffalo, as a wild card team, could be a sixth or seventh seed or miss the playoffs altogether.
If the Bills lose the division to Miami, keep in mind that Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, Indianapolis and Jacksonville would win wild card tiebreakers with Buffalo. The Texans and Colts play each other, and one among Houston, Indianapolis and Jacksonville will win the AFC South and be the fourth seed.
The Steelers finish at Seattle and at Baltimore. Cincinnati plays at Kansas City and home against Cleveland.
Besides their Week 18 matchup in Indianapolis, the Colts play the Raiders at home and Houston plays Tennessee at home. Jacksonville plays host to Carolina and closes at Tennessee. So if the Bills beat New England but lose to Miami, they would not play Miami in the first round if three of those five teams (Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts, Jaguars) win out.
▪ If the Dolphins lose their final two (and the Bills beat the Patriots), how low a seed could the Dolphins have as a wild card team?
No lower than sixth, but sixth would be likely. In that scenario, the Cleveland Browns (10-5) would get the fifth seed ahead of Miami by merely winning one of its final two games (Jets, at Bengals).
If the Dolphins don’t win the AFC East, Cleveland would win a tiebreaker with Miami because the teams did not meet this season and the Browns would be assured of having the better conference record, which is the next tiebreaker.
The Dolphins and Browns are each 7-3 in the conference, but the Browns would have the better conference record if Miami doesn’t win the AFC East and if the Browns and Dolphins finish tied.
For the Dolphins to finish as the top wild card team (the No. 5 seed), they likely would need the Browns to lose twice, though Cleveland winning the AFC North remained an outside possibility entering Monday.
▪ I hate it when you talk negatively. But if the Dolphins do lose out and finish as the sixth seed, who would they play in the first round?
The likelihood for Miami in that scenario would be a first-round game at Kansas City, with the AFC South winner not out of the question.
The Bills and Chiefs are both 9-6 and Buffalo would earn the tiebreaker (and the No. 2 seed) by virtue of their win in Kansas City.
▪ So if the Dolphins lose their next two, how could they be the fifth seed?
Miami would need Cleveland to lose at home to the Jets and at Cincinnati in this scenario. Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Houston are all tied for the AFC South lead at 8-7, with the Jaguars owning the tiebreaker at the moment.
The AFC South team stands as the fourth seed at the moment; division champions are guaranteed a top four seed. The fourth seed plays host to the fifth seed to open the playoffs.
▪ So when will we know what day and time the Bills-at-Dolphins regular season finale will be played?
The NFL will set the Week 18 schedule next Sunday night or Monday morning.
ESPN will carry two games on Saturday, Jan. 6 at 4:30 and 8:15 p.m. CBS and Fox will air games at 1 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. on Sunday, Jan. 7, and NBC has an 8:20 p.m. game on that Sunday. The most likely start times for Miami-Buffalo would be either of the two prime time slots (Saturday or Sunday) or 4:25 p.m. Sunday on CBS.
This story was originally published December 25, 2023 at 9:28 AM.
