A big key to the Dolphins’ season the rest of the way and the startling data behind it
Beyond the availability of Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa’s health, there’s nothing more important for the Dolphins than protecting Tagovailoa — a strength for much of the season but now very much a concern in the wake of injuries to Miami’s top offensive line starters.
When Tagovailoa has time to throw, he has ranked among the league’s best quarterbacks this season.
When he doesn’t, he ranks among the worst, per metrics site Pro Football Focus.
In fact, the gulf between his performance when kept clean compared to when he isn’t is the widest in the league, per PFF’s numbers.
Monday’s loss to Tennessee exemplified that.
Tagovailoa was sacked five times, and when he was under pressure, he completed 5 of 12 passes for 56 yards, per PFF.
When he was kept clean, he was 18 of 21 for 184 yards.
Those numbers were reflective of the wide disparity in Tagovailoa’s performance this season when pressured, as opposed to when kept clean.
We first mentioned this issue during the bye week, but the disparity is becoming increasingly stark. And increasingly worrisome, considering the damaging injuries on the offensive line. With Connor Williams (ACL) out for the year and Liam Eichenberg dealing with a calf injury, Miami’s 53-man roster now includes no natural center who has appeared in a game this decade. (Miami added two centers Wednesday.)
And with a depleted offensive line, Tagovailoa was pressured on 44 percent of his dropbacks against Tennessee, the most in a Dolphins game in two years.
When under pressure this season, Tagovailoa has a 57.2 passer rating, which ranks 36th among all NFL quarterbacks, per PFF. That under-pressure passer rating is better than only five other quarterbacks who have started at least half the season: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones and Bryce Young.
Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts and injured Joe Burrow are all top 10 in the league in passer rating when pressured this season.
When pressured, Tagovailoa is completing 41 percent of his passes (34 for 83) for 457 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Among full-time starters this season, only Carolina’s Young is completing a lower percentage of passes with a pass rush in his face. By comparison, Prescott is completing 63.9 percent of those pressured passes.
But Tagovailoa has been elite when given time to throw; in those circumstances, his 116.6 passer rating is second among all starters, behind only Purdy’s 131.8.
When given time to throw and without a pass rush in his face, Tagovailoa has completed 76.9 percent of his passes (269 of 350), with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Those 22 TD passes, when kept clean, are the second most in the NFL, behind only Prescott’s 23. Only Purdy (79 percent) has a higher completion percentage than Tagovailoa when kept clean.
“We have to keep him clean, first and foremost,” right tackle Austin Jackson said this week. “Heavy is the crown, and we love to wear it. We have to be better. We have to make sure we’re on point with where we need to be with our techniques to keep him safe and clean in the pocket as best as we can.”
With the Dolphins’ spate of injuries along the offensive line, keeping Tagovailoa clean will become difficult against a remaining schedule featuring teams that rank second in yards allowed per game (Baltimore), third (Dallas), fifth (Jets) and 14th (Bills).
The loss of center Williams is immensely hurtful because he has been a linchpin in the run game and yielded only one sack and six pressures in 280 pass blocking snaps.
The loss of left guard Isaiah Wynn — likely for the season — was damaging because he had not yielded a sack in 224 pass blocking snaps before his significant quadriceps injury against Philadelphia.
The loss of right guard Robert Hunt for four games — and likely more — has been hurtful because he has permitted only one sack and five pressures in 297. Hunt, who re-aggravated a hamstring injury against Washington, might be able to return Dec. 24 against Dallas, but that’s far from definite.
And the loss of left tackle Terron Armstead for seven of Miami’s 13 games so far has been damaging because he has yielded no sacks and three pressures in 170 pass blocking snaps. Armstead, dealing with ankle and knee injuries, might be able to play against the Jets, but that’s not certain.
Tagovailoa’s performance in the face of heavy pass rush has been uneven since he came into the league.
His 54.8 passer rating under pressure in his final season playing for Brian Flores (2021) was among the worst for NFL starters.
In 2022, Mike McDaniel’s first season as Miami’s coach, Tagovailoa had a 91.6 passer rating in the face of a heavy pass rush; that was second best among starters, behind only Buffalo’s Josh Allen (96.7).
This year’s performance under pressure (in an 83-throw sample size, plus 23 sacks) has reverted to Tagovailoa’s 2021 form, even while he continues to thrive when kept clean.
That’s why keeping Tagovailoa clean remains so vital to Miami’s chances the rest of the way.
This story was originally published December 13, 2023 at 5:31 PM.
