As price of roster rises to near top of league, Dolphins can make their case to ownership
It’s one thing to spend lavishly on a team that’s a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
It’s quite another to spend lavishly on a team that’s not.
And that’s why the Dolphins’ handling of the denouement of their season -- this murderer’s row of Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo followed (very likely) by the playoffs -- will be significant in shaping critical decisions that will go all the way up to owner Stephen Ross’ desk.
If this team proves, beginning Sunday against the Cowboys and in the weeks to come, that it can make a legitimate Super Bowl run, it would be sensible for Ross to spend whatever it takes to keep this group together, while being cap compliant. If not, all bets are off.
From a spending standpoint, Ross has been the model owner. Per overthecap.com, the Dolphins are eighth in the league in total cash spending this season, at $263.5 million.
They’re already fourth for 2024 at $219.4 million, even with seven starters (and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel) unsigned for next season.
Already $40.8 million above next year’s salary cap, the Dolphins could figure out a way to keep most of their top players by restructuring contracts and utilizing other creative math. That would include paying Christian Wilkins a long-term contract that could top $90 million.
Ross always has paid whatever it takes to field the best team that his front office can craft. But can he justify financing one of the league’s highest payrolls if the Dolphins flame out over the next month?
Dolphins fans who pay attention to cap space might have been startled to see Miami suddenly standing about $40 million over the 2024 cap, an even worse scenario than earlier overthecap.com projections that had the franchise about $23 million over.
So how worried should Dolphins fans be about the team’s ability to keep together a group of impending free agents headlined by Wilkins, Connor Williams, Robert Hunt, and Van Ginkel and also includes starters Raekwon Davis, DeShon Elliott and injured Isaiah Wynn?
Apparently, not much.
Agent Drew Rosenhaus, who represents Williams and Van Ginkel and Wynn from that group (as well as multiple other Dolphins), was asked during his weekly WSVN-7 segment whether Miami’s ability to keep Van Ginkel would be affected by a potential new contract for Wilkins.
“I don’t think it is,” Rosenhaus said. “The cap is going to be in excess of $240 million. I think the team can afford to keep as many of the guys as they want on this defense. The cap is not a hard cap. You can find room. You can guarantee contracts. You can spread them out. You can use voidable years. You can prorate the years. It’s very flexible. Teams find a way to do it.
“Certainly think the Dolphins can find a way to keep all their terrific players and they’ve got an owner in Stephen Ross who’s not afraid to spend the money and he’s got the money. They’ve got the cash to do it in guaranteed contracts. Hopefully the team will continue to have a great season and will reward their guys.”
Jason Fitzgerald, founder of the reliable web site overthecap.com, adjusted the Dolphins’ 2024 over-the-cap number to $40.8 million in recent days because of projections that the cap will be lower than he expected.
“Cap space is all relative and manipulating contracts in the year they are signed to have low cap figures is pretty easy, so losing out on $13 million in projected cap room is nothing to really panic about if you are writing about a team’s prospects for the offseason,” Fitzgerald said. “In general the ‘buying power’ is not really going to change because of it.
“For the handful of teams that are projected to be way over the salary cap (the Saints, Chargers, Bills, and Dolphins being the main ones), this does make things harder because they were already in a pinch and will need to go deeper on the restructures and cuts, reduce futures signings and hold off on draft pick signings just to be cap compliant.”
If there was any question about the importance of Wilkins, there shouldn’t be now. He’s durable, an anchor of one of the league’s best run defenses and now has the sack total (8.0) to prove he can do the one thing that reportedly was a sticking point in offseason negotiations.
Using the franchise tag on Wilkins would mean a projected $19.7 million cap hit in 2024. That cap hit in 2024 could be much lower if it’s part of a multiyear contract.
The Dolphins can trim $15.8 million off their cap by cutting Emmanuel Ogbah and about $8 million by replacing Tua Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option with a lucrative extension similar to the structure of Jalen Hurts’ extension with Philadelphia.
Add another $3.2 million in savings if they cut Keion Crossen, and that’s about $27 million there.
But that’s just a start. They’ll need to work on lowering 2024 cap hits for Tyreek Hill ($31.1 million), Bradley Chubb ($26.9 million), Xavien Howard ($25.9 million), Jerome Baker ($14.9 million) and Terron Armstead ($20.7 million). The Dolphins previously restructured all five of their contracts, but that wouldn’t preclude another one.
They could also rework Jalen Ramsey’s contract, which has a $27.2 million cap number next season.
These Dolphins players have done their part to this point, winning 10 of their first 14.
But with the stakes rising and the quality of competition strengthening, this is their chance to make a convincing case that this team deserves essentially a blank 2024 check from its owner, to fund a pricey roster that’s about to become even pricier.
INJURY UPDATE
Receiver Tyreek Hill practiced, on a limited basis, for the first time since sustaining an ankle injury against Tennessee. Coach Mike McDaniel has said that Hill is close to returning to game action.
Right tackle Austin Jackson (oblique) and right guard Robert Hunt (hamstring) did not practice for a second consecutive day on Thursday. If they cannot play, then Terron Armstead would be the only offensive line starter available on Sunday. Guards Lester Cotton and Robert Jones, center Liam Eichenberg and tackle Kendall Lamm would fill out the lineup.
Meanwhile, cornerback Xavien Howard said the hip injury that sidelined him against the Jets is doing better and he “I’ll be good” to go on Sunday.
“There was no point in going out and risking something I did the week before,” Howard said of the Jets game. “It was a freak injury; Brandon [Jones] ran into me the third play of the game [against Tennessee]. I pushed through in that game. We’re good now. Feel good now.”
Howard, De’Von Achane (toe), Armstead (ankle/knee) and Hill went from not practicing on Wednesday to limited participants Thursday. Also limited Thursday: Jevon Holland (knees), Kader Kohou (hip), Emmanuel Ogbah and Cam Smith (hamstrings for both), Durham Smythe (ankle) and Andrew Van Ginkel (oblique/nose).
Safety De’Shon Elliott is out of concussion protocol and was a full participant in Thursday’s practice.
This story was originally published December 21, 2023 at 4:23 PM.
