A look at a big Heat need that wasn’t addressed and the discouraging early season data
The Heat’s need for more scoring punch couldn’t have been more glaring than during the NBA Finals, when Miami mustered 93, 94, 95 and 89 points in its four losses to Denver, two months after finishing last in the league in scoring during the 2022-23 regular season at 109.5 per game.
The Heat seemingly had two ways to augment its offense this summer:
1). Use Tyler Herro in a trade for an elite scorer and multi-time All Star, a path that became unrealistic after Portland rebuffed Heat inquiries on Damian Lillard or
2). Attempt, via trade or with limited mechanisms in free agency, to add a proven scorer to supplement Jimmy Butler, Herro and Bam Adebayo.
The Heat’s inability to do the second has become magnified during Miami’s 1-4 start.
Not only does the Heat stand 27th in the league in both scoring average and field goal percentage, but Miami’s fourth and fifth highest scorers are producing less offense -- in most cases, much less -- than any Eastern Conference team outside of Chicago.
And that has been one of myriad factors contributing to the Heat entering Thursday with the worst record in the Eastern Conference, and second-worst in the league, ahead of only 0-5 Memphis.
While Herro is averaging what would be a career-high 26.2 points per game, Adebayo 22.3 and Butler 16.5, the Heat has only one other scorer averaging in double figures, Duncan Robinson, at 10.4.
Miami’s fifth-highest scorer, Haywood Highsmith, has played in one game and is averaging 9.0 points.
The problem was particularly acute in Wednesday’s loss to Brooklyn, when the rest of the Heat’s roster excluding Adebayo, Butler and Herro combined for just 34 points on 12-of-40 (30 percent) shooting from the field.
While the Heat has played mostly without Caleb Martin, keep in mind that Martin averaged 9.2 and 9.6 points per game in his two previous seasons in Miami; expecting Martin to suddenly become a consistent double digit scorer, as he did in the Eastern Conference finals against Boston, might be unrealistic.
Perhaps the Heat’s fourth best scorer could eventually be Josh Richardson, who averaged 10.1 points for the Spurs and Pelicans last season. But he has missed 12 of his 16 shots so far this season while working off rust from a foot injury.
The Heat’s lack of offensive firepower, around its top three players, comes into focus when considering what other teams are culling from their fourth and fifth highest scorers. A look at what those fourth and fifth scorers are averaging for other Eastern teams:
▪ Boston: Derrick White (15.8 points per game) and Jrue Holiday (13.0); that’s eight more points per game than the Heat is getting from its No. 4 and No. 5 scorers.
Miami’s preseason trade offer for Holiday was rejected by Portland. The Celtics might have the NBA’s best fourth and fifth best players on a roster, with Kristaps Porzingis and White.
▪ Milwaukee: Malik Beasley (12.0) and Brook Lopez (10.8). And Kris Middleton (7.3) should replace Beasley on that list when he returns to health and comes off a minutes restriction.
▪ Philadelphia: Kelly Oubre (19 per game), D’Anthony Melton (8). The Heat could have signed Oubre to the same minimum deal that the 76ers gave him but did not.
▪ New York: Julius Randle (13.2), Donte DiVincenzo (8).
▪ Cleveland: Darius Garland (15), Max Strus (14.2). But Strus, who got a four-year, $63 million deal from Cleveland, is shooting just 34.8 percent and 31.1 percent on threes.
▪ Toronto: OG Anunoby (14.3), Jakob Poetel (9.8).
▪ Atlanta: Jalen Johnson (13.2), Bogdan Bogdanovic (12.0). The Hawks have eight players averaging double figures in scoring.
▪ Brooklyn: Lonnie Walker IV (16.7), Dorian Finney-Smith (14). The Nets have eight players averaging double figures. Walker is on a minimum deal, the type of deal that Miami or any other team could have offered.
▪ Washington: Tyus Jones (11.8), Cody Kispert (11).
▪ Orlando: Jalen Suggs (11.3), Markelle Fultz (11.0).
▪ Detroit: Isaiah Stewart (13.4), Jaden Ivey (11.8).
▪ Indiana: Bruce Brown (12), Aaron Nesmith (11.8).
▪ Charlotte: Brandon Miller (15.5), Gordon Hayward (15.3).
▪ Chicago: Coby White (9.8), Alex Caruso (7.0).
The hope was that Heat point guard Kyle Lowry could return to being a viable fourth scorer, but that appears increasingly unlikely. Through five games, Lowry is averaging only 6.0 points (compared with 11.2 last season) and has taken only 25 shots (making 11 of them).
Perhaps the Heat’s supporting cast will be more effective on Friday against a Washington team that is permitting 118.3 points per 100 possessions, which is the NBA’s third-worst defensive rating.
What scorers could the Heat have added this offseason without sacrificing Butler, Adebayo or Herro?
Beyond Oubre (who averaged 20.3 for Charlotte last season) and Christian Wood (who signed with the Lakers for the minimum after averaging 16.6 points per game for Dallas last season), Miami bypassed making an offer for then-Washington guard Bradley Beal, a former 30 point per game scorer who has missed the opening of the season for Phoenix because of back issues.
Though Beal preferred a trade to the Heat, the Heat says the fact that it would have inherited Beal’s no-trade clause, for the next four years, dissuaded them from pursuing the former All Star guard.
The Heat didn’t submit a winning bid for Holiday and made no effort to acquire James Harden, who wasn’t seen as a good fit. Philadelphia dealt Harden to the Clippers this week.
What has become clear, in recent weeks, is that the Heat never viewed adding another high-level scorer as a priority. Heat president Pat Riley, in multiple interviews, has identified size as the area that most needed to be addressed this offseason.
“Last year, one of the things that really hurt us versus Denver was they just dominated us in the paint and at the rim,” Riley told The Miami Herald a few days before the regular season started. “We shot the hell out of the ball to stay in games from three, but we got dominated by size. So I think that’s one area that we’re going to have to think about.
“I know Spo [Erik Spoelstra] has addressed it from whether posting up, driving into the paint, getting fouled a little bit more, having a player or two who can really post up. That’s why I really like [new backup center] Thomas [Bryant].
“I think Thomas can score in traffic in a lot of different ways, Bam can. It’s a question of how much are we going to do that? But when it comes down to winning the title this year, you’re going to have to beat some size.”
THIS AND THAT
▪ Martin, who continues to deal with knee tendonosis, was the only player ruled out for Friday’s home game against the Wizards, and the only Heat player not expected to be available.
Kevin Love, who has missed two of the past three games with a shoulder injury, will be available.
Butler (knee) is listed as probable.
Martin said Thursday: “I’m feeling a lot better. Progress has been great. Trying to be smart about it.”
▪ Spoelstra, on Thursday: “We have to get to a higher level. We have to get our offense to a higher level. We have to get our overall game to a higher level... We want to put more points on the board. We’re capable of doing that.
“We need Jimmy, Bam and Tyler all playing at a high level, at an efficient level, bringing the best out of each other and ultimately raising the level of everyone on the roster, which they are all capable of doing.”
Spoelstra spoke of needing to improve “reading the game decisions” and “collective IQ” and wanting “more attempts at the rim, more free throw attempts. If we are doing that, that will open up the three-point line. If we’re not doing aggressive things, often times we’re left with the shot we don’t want, a heavy diet of” that.
▪ Udonis Haslem again participated in drills with the team.
This story was originally published November 2, 2023 at 2:08 PM.
