What would be a reasonable Heat offer for Lillard? Veteran scout weighs in
The Heat has as many as seven valuable assets to offer Portland in a trade for guard Damian Lillard.
That list includes as many as three tradable first-round picks, Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, rookie first-round pick Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Caleb Martin.
But the Heat isn’t believed to be offering even close to all seven of those assets.
The Heat’s offer to Portland reportedly is built around Herro and two first-round picks (in 2028 and 2030). Such a deal also would need to include a cap-facilitating contract – Kyle Lowry’s or Duncan Robinson’s.
So how many of those seven appealing assets should the Heat offer to land Lillard?
I posed that question to a veteran NBA scout who watched the Heat a lot last season.
“Herro, three picks and one of those three young guys would be sufficient,” the scout said Tuesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity because his team does not permit him to speak publicly.
“To give them all three of the young guys would be too much. What would you have left?”
If Lillard replaces Lakers-bound Gabe Vincent in the starting lineup and Martin starts, the Heat would be left with a bench headlined by Josh Richardson, Robinson, Lowry, Kevin Love and Thomas Bryant in that scenario.
“Asking for one of the three among Jovic, Martin and Jaquez is reasonable,” the scout said. “Three first-round picks is generous.
“If I’m the Heat, I offer two picks, Herro and one of the three young players, preferably Jovic or Jaquez, and see if anybody tops that. If you have to give up one more [first round] pick, fine. Three picks are rich for a guy who’s 33 with [$216 million] left on his contract. But I could understand offering a third. I would do it if that made the difference in making the deal.”
But whether even that would be enough to satisfy Portland is unclear.
The Heat, at the moment, can trade first-round picks in 2028 and 2030. In order to free up a third first-round pick to trade, the Heat would need Oklahoma City to agree to take an unprotected 2026 first-round pick instead of the current agreement of what Miami must send to the Thunder (a lottery-protected 2025 first round pick that would become an unprotected 2026 Heat first round pick if Miami makes the playoffs in 2024-25).
Executing that amendment on the deal with OKC would allow the Heat to trade first round picks in 2024, 2028 and 2030.
The scout said the Heat needs to keep Martin, which is reflective of the Heat’s viewpoint.
“Of the young guys, Jovic would make the most sense for Portland,” the scout said. “He was good at times at the World Cup. He’s got talent. But can he rebound consistently? I don’t know. Is he going to help them [the Heat] now and get in their rotation now? Debatable. Jaquez is solid, more ready to play than Jovic. He’s like Caleb Martin a little - utility guy, versatile defender, tough, smart.”
The scout said if the Heat offers Herro and two or three first-rounders and Jovic, that would be his preference over a hypothetical Toronto offer including OG Anunoby and cap-filler.
He noted that even though Anunoby is highly skilled defensively and a good three-point shooter, there have been injury issues (he has played in 43, 48 and 67 games the past three seasons) and he can become a free agent after this upcoming season.
With Herro, the Blazers would have an asset under contract for four years. With Anunoby, Portland could lose him in a year or be in a position where they need to pay him much more than Herro’s $30 million-a-year deal to keep him.
“Portland doesn’t know what the [bleep] they’re doing,” the scout said. “They’re totally undervaluing Herro and overvaluing Anunoby” when you take into account Anunoby’s injury history and expected contract demands next summer.
“Portland can sell off Herro if they want and get another first. As players, it’s not like Anunoby is significantly better than Herro. They have different skill sets, but they’re similar in overall ability.”
Bottom line?
“If I’m the Heat, I would do Herro and three first-rounders and Jovic. Enough!” the scout said. “If you don’t want that deal, then deal with an unhappy Lillard on your own team.”
The problem for Miami remains the Blazers’ lack of enthusiasm about the assets that the Heat has offered. Colleague Anthony Chiang noted that an NBA official who spoke to Portland’s front office last week was told by the Blazers that a trade to Miami is “unlikely.”
This story was originally published September 26, 2023 at 3:41 PM.
