Exploring the Dolphins’ potential money vs. performance/fit decisions in next month
It’s a fundamental question for NFL teams every August: How much should finances affect roster decisions?
Do you keep a player who’s due guaranteed money over a slightly better player (or better fit) who isn’t? And do you allow finances to be the determining factor on bottom-of-the-roster decisions?
Here’s where money could be a consideration:
▪ Wide receiver: The Dolphins have seven NFL caliber receivers on their roster, nine if you include Braylon Sanders (who flashed throughout training camp last year) and Freddie Swain (who has 61 receptions and six touchdowns for Seattle before joining the Dolphins).
At most, there’s probably room for six: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios and (very likely) Erik Ezukanma and perhaps two others. But if the Dolphins keep only five, then finances gives Cedrick Wilson Jr. a clear advantage over Robbie Chosen and River Cracraft.
For Wilson, $5 million of his $7 million salary is guaranteed, while Chosen and Cracraft have $1.1 million contracts that are entirely non-guaranteed.
Wilson has had a good offseason and first few days of camp but hasn’t stood out recently. Regardless, the financial component seemingly gives Wilson a very good chance to make the roster, barring a trade. Keep in mind that Wilson has a $6 million cap hit if he’s cut or a $1 million cap hit if he’s traded.
Barring a trade, Wilson seems safe because it’s difficult to envision a team paying $5 million to a good player to leave, and Wilson is a good player – just one year removed from a 602-yard, six TD year for Dallas.
Wilson caught 12 passes for 136 yards (no touchdowns) and returned 13 punts in modest playing time as a Dolphins last season, logging 237 snaps on offense and 40 on special teams.
Cracraft caught 9 passes for 102 yards, including two touchdowns, playing 159 snaps on offense and just 11 on special teams. Chosen looked good in June practices but had a quiet camp until catching two long passes in Friday’s practice. His speed remains a great asset, but he’s by no means a cinch to stick.
▪ Offensive line: Terron Armstead, Connor Williams, Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt, Liam Eichenberg and Isaiah Wynn are safe and Dan Feeney has a good chance to stick.
That could leave one or two spots among guard Robert Jones and tackles Cedric Ogbuehi, Kendall Lamb, Geron Christian and seventh-round tackle Ryan Hayes.
Kion Smith, James Tunstall, guard Lester Cotton and rookie center Alama Uluave are viewed as long shots. Barring a trade, Lamm and Jones could be the front-runners for the eighth and ninth jobs.
The financial variable and considerable NFL starting experience should help Feeney even if he plays poorly in preseason.
Parting with Feeney - who has value as a backup center and guard - would be difficult because he’s guaranteed his full $3.1 million salary this year, and his dead cap hit ($3.1 million) is just $125,000 less than his cap hit if he sticks.
Financial issues shouldn’t impact which of the bubble players stick. Christian is guaranteed $200,000, Lamm $100,000 and Ogbuehi nothing. Christian’s salary is $80,000 less than the others. Jones’ $940,000 salary is not guaranteed, which could affect the decision on him.
With Wynn confirming that he is working at guard, Lamm looks like the front-runner among the backup tackles.
▪ Edge players: This would come into play if undrafted rookies Mitchell Agude and Garrett Nelson or second-year player Cameron Goode - or perhaps even one of the three - clearly outplay Malik Reed, who played for Fangio in Denver.
Agude has generated pressure on the quarterback throughout the offseason program and has flashed throughout training camp. Goode also has impressed at times.
Agude, Nelson and Goode would be cheap; each would make $750,000 if they stick and nothing more if they’re cut. Agude already pocketed $20,000 guaranteed and Nelson $75,000.
If Reed is cut, he’s still owed $650,000 of his $1.1 million salary and his cap hit would drop from $1.1 million to $750,000. So that could help Reed, who had a 24-tackle, one-sack season in 14 appearances for the Steelers last year. And this could create a dilemma if Agude outplays him.
Reed has had a decent camp before an injury sidelined him for the scrimmage on Saturday.
▪ Tight end: The question is how many stick beyond Durham Smythe, from a group including journeymen Tyler Kroft and Eric Saubert, injured second-year project Tanner Conner and rookies Elijah Higgins and Julian Hill.
Higgins, as a sixth-rounder, seems more likely than not to make the 53, but it’s hardly certain.
Keep in mind that $500,000 of Saubert’s $1.1 million salary is guaranteed, while none of Kroft’s $1.1 million is guaranteed. Saubert hasn’t had a great camp. But Kroft might need to clearly outplay Saubert to help his chances.
Conner ($870,000 non guaranteed) and Hill ($750,000 non-guaranteed) are cheaper, but Miami figures to keep a second veteran (Saubert or Kroft) regardless, and maybe both. Conner is injured and could begin the year on PUP.
▪ Cornerback: Jalen Ramsey’s injury - and Nik Needham’s continued recovery from last year’s torn Achilles - essentially eliminate what might have been the most difficult financial decision Miami seemed likely to face: whether to eat the remaining year on Noah Igbinoghene’s contract.
Igbinoghene is needed now, and he has played well in camp, so there’s really no decision here. Igbinoghene already has been guaranteed $1.6 million of his $2.1 million salary. He has a $3.6 million cap hit if he’s on the team, $3 million if he’s cut.
Keep in mind that salaries are completely non-guaranteed for cornerbacks Keion Crossen ($2.9 million) and Justin Bethel ($1.1 million). Both are at serious risk. Crossen hasn’t practiced in more than a week and has compression sleeves on both legs; if he’s cut, an injury settlement would be needed.
▪ Running back: If the Dolphins add Dalvin Cook, then Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed would both be in jeopardy. Both are due to make about $1 million; Gaskin isn’t owed a dime if he’s cut. Ahmed would be owed $200,000 if he’s cut.
Gaskin already is very much at risk even if Cook isn’t signed.
This story was originally published August 7, 2023 at 12:35 PM.
