Six ways how these playoffs are affecting the Heat’s offseason business, trade efforts
These NBA playoffs haven’t merely given the Heat the ability to make a deep playoff run and reshape how their uneven season is viewed.
It also has given players a chance to increase their value, both in free agency and the trade market.
And it has given the team a larger body of work to help shape offseason decisions.
Exploring six developments so far in these playoffs that will impact the Heat’s offseason business:
▪ Gabe Vincent has boosted his potential market value as he approaches unrestricted free agency on July 1.
Vincent is averaging 15.1 points in the playoffs and shooting 40.4 percent on threes, compared with 9.4 points and 33.4 percent during the regular season.
He has a solid assist-to-turnover ratio (5.0 to 1.9) during this postseason.
As perspective, Memphis last July gave point guard Tyus Jones a two-year, $29 million contract after he averaged 8.7 points, 4.4 assists and shot 39 percent on threes in the regular season.
Guard Gary Payton Jr., now back with the Warriors, got a three-year, $26.1 million deal with Portland after averaging 7.1 points and 3.5 assists and shooting 35.8 percent during the regular season for Golden State.
He missed 10 playoff games with an elbow injury but posted 15 points, five rebounds and three steals in a 104–94 Game 5 win over the Celtics in the NBA Finals.
So Vincent stands to cash in this summer.
His value continues to rise after strong Games 1 and 2 in the Knicks series, in the wake of his 22-point, six-assist, one-turnover Game 5 against Milwaukee (and a high-degree-of-difficulty inbounds pass to Jimmy Butler for the basket that sent the game to overtime).
▪ Kyle Lowry might not be such a distressed asset after all.
Lowry has played well since returning from knee soreness March 12, and he’s averaging 8.9 points — with 4.0 assists and 1.9 turnovers per game in these playoffs.
Lowry is owed $29.6 million in the final season of his contract (2023-24). If the Heat keeps him, it can do so with the comforting knowledge that his poor play in January was likely a byproduct of the knee, more so than a dramatic diminishment of skill.
If the Heat uses his salary to facilitate a trade for an All-Star, the team acquiring him might be able to get productive minutes from him next season, or flip him to another team that wants a skilled veteran point guard on an expiring contract.
▪ Kevin Love has made a case to return.
He has played well alongside Bam Adebayo since returning to the starting lineup, producing postseason averages of 9.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 39.5 percent three-point shooting.
Even though Love and Cody Zeller do not have Bird Rights, Miami would not necessarily need to eat into its exception money if it wants to sign either to deals above the minimum for next season.
Both are eligible to make 120 percent of their current salaries, meaning Love could get $3.7 million next season and Zeller $3.4 million.
But tough decisions will need to be made, with the Heat having $171 million committed to eight players for next season: Butler, Adebayo, Lowry, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic and Victor Oladipo, who’s expected to exercise his $9.5 million player option while recovering from a knee injury that will sideline him for a large part of next season.
That doesn’t count Haywood Highsmith’s $1.9 million team option; the $3.5 million that’s due the 18th overall pick; and cap holds that would push Miami above that $179 million “second apron” level, a threshold in the new labor agreement that makes it slightly more difficult to make trades during the next nine months and significantly more difficult after that.
▪ Max Strus’ free agent value can swing wildly, depending on the game.
Strus — averaging 8.1 points on 41.4 percent three-point shooting in the playoffs — ultimately could command a deal similar to the three-year, $21.1 million deal that Miami gave Caleb Martin last July.
But those types of Payton and Martin deals for Vincent and Strus could result in a payroll in the $194 million range — which would result in a wildly unrealistic $100 million luxury tax payment if the Heat doesn’t trade any of eight under-contract players in exchange for players earning less money.
Though the Heat is willing to be a tax team next season, a payroll that much above the $161 million luxury tax threshold is not going to happen.
So unless the Heat can dump a lot of salary, it might need to choose between Vincent and Strus.
▪ Robinson might not be impossible to move.
His postseason shooting (53.1 percent on threes) could make him less difficult to trade, though it still won’t be easy.
Robinson is owed $18.1 million, $19.4 million and $19.8 million during the next three seasons, with $9.8 million guaranteed in that final season. The Heat also could opt to keep Robinson if Strus leaves in free agency.
▪ The notion of trading Adebayo cannot be entirely ruled out.
During a conversation with the Miami Herald before Adebayo’s All-Star appearance, Heat president Pat Riley made clear he viewed Adebayo as a foundational piece, noting “a franchise always is built around players who have stayed here forever” and suggesting he viewed Adebayo in that way.
Any requests for Adebayo in past trade conversations were a non-starter, even for future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant.
But Adebayo’s scoring and rebounding have dropped since the All Star break, and his numbers are down further in the playoffs; his scoring is down from 20.4 per game during the regular season to 16.9 in postseason and his rebounding averages are down from 9.2 to 8.4.
The question now is whether the Heat would consider any trade scenarios involving Adebayo, or instead offer Herro and draft picks in trade bids for a star player.
This story was originally published May 4, 2023 at 3:43 PM.
